August CET

[Stu_London]

Nonsense only 5 days gone just needs a series of mild nights and low mid twenties and the average will rise very quickly. Nature doesn't listen to stats in a book.

Hence why I used to the word "statistically"

Please try to read and understand posts for what they really mean before coming up with your rude, dismissive responses.

[Guest]

16.1C to 04.08.2010 - Spot on!

[Gavin P]

Sub 16 for the first time since June;

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Not that it means a whole lot, but yesterday was the joint coolest CET day (with July 13th) since since June 20th.

Another small drop tomorrow to 15.8C, or if todays maxes stay suppressed, 15.7C. After that, some rises likely, so I think we will be back over 16C by the 10th.

[The PIT]

Well this afternoons forecast showed the temps just creeping above normal over the weekend. Should be around normal or slightly above perhaps by Tuesday morning. Then a slight drop again. Now if the ECM and GFS are right in FI land STU's Unlikely massive heatwave (Which isn't needed by the way) will push temps several points above normal. So anything still possible since it's so early in the month.

Interestingly the GFS and ECM are going against GP's expected outcome.

Hence why I used to the word "statistically"

Please try to read and understand posts for what they really mean before coming up with your rude, dismissive responses.

Come on you know you posted a rare bit of nonsense perhaps you thought it was the 25th of August when you posted it. A massive heat wave needed to for any who posted above average pull the other one.

[Stu_London]

I was actually offering a statistic analysis, rather that my own personal opinion.

Although with a CET guess within 0.3C of the exact value every month for the last 7 months, some might value my personal opinion.

Edited August 6, 2010 by Stu_London

[The PIT]

I was actually offering a statistic analysis, rather that my own personal opinion.

Although with a CET guess within 0.3C of the exact value every month for the last 7 months, some might value my personal opinion.

LOl sorry for offending your ego...

[summer blizzard]

The CET is currently 15.9C, looking at the models out to 144 hours, aside from a brief upward movement of 0.2C on sunday-tuesday, the other three days look like registering downward movement, so with that in mind i think that the CET will be at 15.7C for the 1st-12th, still a great chance of a below average month in my opinion.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yep, below average still on the cards, as long as that heatwave just outside the reliable timeframe stays there. Anyway, I think tomorrow will up the CET quite a bit, I think we could reach 16.2C before things start to drop again around tuesday, so 16.0C by the 12th would be my guess!

[The PIT]

Dunno GFS 00 oz still showing some warm nights and warm days in the CET zone. Again we could be going for another fairly large variation across the country. Although cooler air is shown it's taking it's time too drift south.

Against that GFS is also showing silly temps at midnight on the 15th 22C here comes Stu's massive heatwave. Anyway FI land and the last time it showed bonzo temps they didn't appear at all.

7 days in still could go either way very easily.

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.8C to the 6th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2010

The actual figure is 15.75C. I think in the June CET thread John Holmes mentioned that for the Met Office it has to be .6, or in this case 15.76C, before they round up. Has this been changed again?

Anywho, the minimum is down as 14.4C, so 15.9C at least by tomorrow, 16.0C if maxes average over 20C.

[Roger J Smith]

All models currently show a warm blocking high parked over the UK and Ireland from about the 12th onward as far as they go ... a reasonable inference would be that the CET would drop to about 15.5 C mid-week then begin to recover steadily with days of 18-20 C mean CET (25/13 giving 19 C) and some potential for even warmer weather at times, but taking a conservative estimate, I would say 17.5 by the 20th if this materializes.

This will have an effect on air quality because I would imagine some of the smoke from Russia will begin to work its way westward through Poland and Germany (where it could turn quite hot) and so it might be a factor to keep in mind for about 10-15 days from now that air quality might start to deteriorate at least in southeast England, if these model projections verify.

Otherwise it should bring a welcome change for western and northern parts of the UK and Ireland that have been gloomy and wet, while further south it will represent more of a return to the settled conditions from parts of July.

Please keep your critiques below the nuclear level and endorsements cash only. Thanks.

[summer blizzard]

All models currently show a warm blocking high parked over the UK and Ireland from about the 12th onward as far as they go ... a reasonable inference would be that the CET would drop to about 15.5 C mid-week then begin to recover steadily with days of 18-20 C mean CET (25/13 giving 19 C) and some potential for even warmer weather at times, but taking a conservative estimate, I would say 17.5 by the 20th if this materializes.

This will have an effect on air quality because I would imagine some of the smoke from Russia will begin to work its way westward through Poland and Germany (where it could turn quite hot) and so it might be a factor to keep in mind for about 10-15 days from now that air quality might start to deteriorate at least in southeast England, if these model projections verify.

Otherwise it should bring a welcome change for western and northern parts of the UK and Ireland that have been gloomy and wet, while further south it will represent more of a return to the settled conditions from parts of July.

Please keep your critiques below the nuclear level and endorsements cash only. Thanks.

All models agree that the even when the high moves across, it will still bring cool uppers for the time of year, which could give some pretty low minima. If we trust the GFS given that it goes out such a long time, then we have five days of above average (15th-20th), with this in mind i would be suprised if the CET is above 17C by the 20th, though i personally think that the models are overdoing it.

[Gavin P]

All models currently show a warm blocking high parked over the UK and Ireland from about the 12th onward as far as they go ... a reasonable inference would be that the CET would drop to about 15.5 C mid-week then begin to recover steadily with days of 18-20 C mean CET (25/13 giving 19 C) and some potential for even warmer weather at times, but taking a conservative estimate, I would say 17.5 by the 20th if this materializes.

This will have an effect on air quality because I would imagine some of the smoke from Russia will begin to work its way westward through Poland and Germany (where it could turn quite hot) and so it might be a factor to keep in mind for about 10-15 days from now that air quality might start to deteriorate at least in southeast England, if these model projections verify.

Otherwise it should bring a welcome change for western and northern parts of the UK and Ireland that have been gloomy and wet, while further south it will represent more of a return to the settled conditions from parts of July.

Please keep your critiques below the nuclear level and endorsements cash only. Thanks.

2c rise in a week? That'd be some heatwave!

[summer blizzard]

http://hadobs.metoff..._info_mean.html

CET rose to 16.0C with another rise likely today and staying static tommorow before a drop mid week.

[summer blizzard]

All models agree that the even when the high moves across, it will still bring cool uppers for the time of year, which could give some pretty low minima. If we trust the GFS given that it goes out such a long time, then we have five days of above average (15th-20th), with this in mind i would be suprised if the CET is above 17C by the 20th, though i personally think that the models are overdoing it.

GFS6z downgrades the longevity of any heat again by a day, with cool weather back by the 20th, rather than 21st.

[summer blizzard]

GFS6z downgrades the longevity of any heat again by a day, with cool weather back by the 20th, rather than 21st.

GFS12z has a northerly by the 18th now.

It looks to me as if there will be a lot of static/slight movement upward in terms of the CET, though current GFS ouputs would suggest more downward movement in the last third of the month.

[Weather-history]

One point, August is a month where the long term daily average drops during the month, that is to say that the first half is on average is warmer than the second half.

[The PIT]

One point, August is a month where the long term daily average drops during the month, that is to say that the first half is on average is warmer than the second half.

Well if it runs to form we could end up with a below average month. All depends of whether the high builds in or not or is just kept to the west. If it builds in and sticks around we could end up with a warmer 2nd half.

[Gavin P]

One point, August is a month where the long term daily average drops during the month, that is to say that the first half is on average is warmer than the second half.

Indeed. Its generally downhill all the way from now until January!

[BornFromTheVoid]

16.0C to the 8th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 16.4C. Today will probably be something similar, minimum down as 11.3C but max looks like being between 21.5C and 22C, so maybe a small increase to 16.1C by tomorrow. Another small rise possible the next day but things look like holding steady after that for a short while...

[Stu_London]

16.0C to the 8th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 16.4C. Today will probably be something similar, minimum down as 11.3C but max looks like being between 21.5C and 22C, so maybe a small increase to 16.1C by tomorrow. Another small rise possible the next day but things look like holding steady after that for a short while...

Good chance that we will be about the same as now by mid month. A small rise in the next couple of days offset by a slight decline thereafter.

Still mixed signals as to the period after this, at least a couple of warm days look fairly likely but I would be surprised if we end up too much above average by month end

Edited August 9, 2010 by Stu_London

[The PIT]

Hard to predict which way it will go with the summery prediction by the models coming and going every other run. GFS predicting some cool nights this week then a summery break the week after. So anything could happen.

[damianslaw]

The projections for more settled conditions as we head through the middle of the month may not do much for the CET as it will likely result in clearer skies at night so warm maxes will probably be offset by cool minima particularly as the heights will not be drawing in warm upper temps indeed. Night time minima can drop quite sharply by late august as the nights begin to draw in..

[summer blizzard]

The projections for more settled conditions as we head through the middle of the month may not do much for the CET as it will likely result in clearer skies at night so warm maxes will probably be offset by cool minima particularly as the heights will not be drawing in warm upper temps indeed. Night time minima can drop quite sharply by late august as the nights begin to draw in..

Agreed, there also looks to be a large durinal range in the west.

Looking at the model runs, it looks to me as if a slow rise in the CET will take place throughout the forecast period, mainly because daylight still outstrips night in August and thus i expect a slow crall towards 17C to take place. Both GFS and ECWMF suggest that a cold front will move south on the 18th giviving a diluted cool air mass, so it looks as though the CET should stop rising by then, afterwards indications are for an unsettled spell with heights high over Greenland.

I would say that close to average is odds on, but there is still a chance of a below average month.