August CET

[summer blizzard]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.png

GFS18z supports my assertions, the last third of the month should deliver a drop, though how big i am not sure.

[BornFromTheVoid]

CET has stayed at 16.0C for today.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 16.2C. Minimum for today is down as 12.2C and maxes look to be around 20C so CET probably staying the same for tomorrow, and possibly the day after.

[AderynCoch]

August is looking like a very nondescript CET month. Early days and all that, but there's no sign of any significant warming or cooling on the horizon.

[coram]

I was actually offering a statistic analysis, rather that my own personal opinion.

Although with a CET guess within 0.3C of the exact value every month for the last 7 months, some might value my personal opinion.

I don't value your opinion. You've just been lucky. You should never mix up lucky guesses with an ability to forecast.

It's looking likely, according to the GFS and ECM, that there will be a small rise over the next 5-6 days. Thereafter it seems likely that the surface high will move over us giving warm/very warm weather in the south at least. Less warm/settled the further north and west you go. A finishing figure of about 16.7 is my guess.

[Optimus Prime]

Lol that's if you believe in luck. I believe in Science which explains there is no such thing as luck. It's simply fortunate he done well. Like it was fortunate everything was in place for a cold winter (or unfortunate depending on how you look at it)

[BornFromTheVoid]

I reckon we might actually see a small drop over the next few days. I'd say 15.8C to the 14th before things start warming up, after that, the GFS 12z would still only have us at 16.1C by the 17th.

[summer blizzard]

I reckon we might actually see a small drop over the next few days. I'd say 15.8C to the 14th before things start warming up, after that, the GFS 12z would still only have us at 16.1C by the 17th.

Indeed, the high thickness values would indicate high maxima which at this time of year outstrips daylight, while cooler than average upper air temperatures would indicate a drop. Could well fall, but very slowly, GFS is still confident of a cooler push from the 18th.

[Lettucing Gutted]

If this August records a CET of 17C or higher 2010 will be the first year to see 2 consecutive 17C and over months since 2003.

[Stu_London]

I don't value your opinion. You've just been lucky. You should never mix up lucky guesses with an ability to forecast.

It's looking likely, according to the GFS and ECM, that there will be a small rise over the next 5-6 days. Thereafter it seems likely that the surface high will move over us giving warm/very warm weather in the south at least. Less warm/settled the further north and west you go. A finishing figure of about 16.7 is my guess.

To get to 16.7C would probably require the warmest final 3rd to August in the last 10 years and one of the warmest final thirds ever.

On all available output, I can't see it but what do I know, I'm just a lucky guesser!

[Methuselah]

Lol that's if you believe in luck. I believe in Science which explains there is no such thing as luck. It's simply fortunate he done well. Like it was fortunate everything was in place for a cold winter (or unfortunate depending on how you look at it)

I also believe in science. That said, I also believe in luck...Why has NO-ONE come up with anything definitive in terms of seasonal LRFs yet? Could it be because, both collectively and individually, we still don't know how?

[Stu_London]

I reckon we might actually see a small drop over the next few days. I'd say 15.8C to the 14th before things start warming up, after that, the GFS 12z would still only have us at 16.1C by the 17th.

I think you are probably correct. 4 days marginally below average will probably be offset by 2 days with higher maxima. Beyond that who knows, but with a repeating pattern of a mid atlantic ridge (as per John H and GP), any real warmth is likely to be transient.

[Stu_London]

I also believe in science. That said, I also believe in luck...Why has NO-ONE come up with anything definitive in terms of seasonal LRFs yet? Could it be because, both collectively and individually, we still don't know how?

Or course we still don't know - even the met office with their resources have given up on it!

Guessing a monthly CET is slightly different. Or course there a huge element of luck involved because no one can predict what will be happening 4 weeks down the line. However you it is possible to apply some technique.

You can be fairly sure of the outcome of the first week and in summer when pattern change is less dramatic often you can make a reasonable stab at the 2nd week. Beyond that, luck becomes the main driver however a combination of reading the thoughts of others with more knowledge, statistical analysis and by using your own experience of model and weather watching, it is possible to have some sort of steer on the 2nd half of the month.

Obviously sometimes you will be beaten by people who pluck a figure out of the air and hit spot on, however their is enough skill element for a pattern to emerge over a number of months and it is no co-incidence that certain members always end up near the top of the leaderboard.

[Stu_London]

No change to the 10th - 16.0C

Yesterday was 15.8C

Last night was a positively chilly 9.5C, so a drop is probable tomorrow

Edited August 11, 2010 by Stu_London

[The PIT]

Well I tend if I got time too look at CFS if I don't have time I try and make a guess based on GFS first week which can go tits up.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yep, looking relatively cool for the next 4 days. GFS 06z would have us at 15.7C by the 15th, and with consistent indication for a cooler final 3rd to the month, below average is looking like the best bet at the moment. At this stage I'd say cooler than 2007 likely and cooler than 15.5C around 50/50.

[summer blizzard]

Yep, looking relatively cool for the next 4 days. GFS 06z would have us at 15.7C by the 15th, and with consistent indication for a cooler final 3rd to the month, below average is looking like the best bet at the moment. At this stage I'd say cooler than 2007 likely and cooler than 15.5C around 50/50.

2007 recorded 15.4C, so i think that you mean the other way around, or have worded it wrong.

There are certainly indications for a cool last third of the month, if GFS were to be belived it would also be very wet.

[The PIT]

2007 recorded 15.4C, so i think that you mean the other way around, or have worded it wrong.

There are certainly indications for a cool last third of the month, if GFS were to be belived it would also be very wet.

I wouldn't put much faith in the models. GFS 12 oz maybe another warmer more settled run.

[BornFromTheVoid]

2007 recorded 15.4C, so i think that you mean the other way around, or have worded it wrong.

There are certainly indications for a cool last third of the month, if GFS were to be belived it would also be very wet.

Ah yeah, got a bit mixed up and thought 2007 was 15.7C, was rushing a bit earlier!

[summer blizzard]

I wouldn't put much faith in the models. GFS 12 oz maybe another warmer more settled run.

GFS12 was consistent with its previous runs. Must say i was getting a bit nervous about my prediction of 15.0C, but there is certainly a chance.

To beat 1993 would require 14.5C, which we are not going to achieve, however if we can beat the 15.4C recorded in August 2007 then we can at least have the coolest August in 17 years.

[damianslaw]

Even at this early juncture with the prospect of average temps at best it is looking like we will struggle to see a CET finishing above 17 degrees - this is the upper benchmark figure as I see it, so a cooler month than July. I do believe something very close to average will be the final result with perhaps the odds stacked more in favour of below than above at this stage. It is rare for the second half of August to be warmer than the first - I'm sure Mr Data can verify the stats on this one. Late August can be postively cool when the atlantic is in full steam train mode..

[Weather-history]

It is rare for the second half of August to be warmer than the first - I'm sure Mr Data can verify the stats on this one. ..

It can happen, the best example of recent times I can think of was August 1984. The second half was hot with a CET of about 18.9 compared to overall CET of 17.6 for that month.

[Methuselah]

I wouldn't put much faith in the models. GFS 12 oz maybe another warmer more settled run.

Fair comment, PIT...

[coram]

After a settled end to the weekend, it seems increasingly likely, according to the GFS 00z, that the trough will set up just to the west of the UK. This will mean warmish winds from the south/south west. After that we're into the final third of the month and as Stu says this could be very warm. My guess for the final figure is 16.7.

[Stu_London]

15.9C to the 11th

Yesterday came in at 14.5C

Last night was milder at 12.1C, however maximas are quite supressed today, so no move likely. We could fall to 15.7C in the next couple of days and then it looks like a run of days where movement of the CET will be minimal. I wouldn't be suprised to see 15.7C or 15.8C as the value as we head into the final 3rd of the month.

[Fozfoster]

:rolleyes:15.6 will do me