Russian Heat Wave

[Habsish]

Any comments concerning the wider weather implications of this event?

Regards

H

[Deep Snow please]

It could muck up the winter synoptics, regarding russia's cold winter climate, winter will either not happen or be an absolute blizzard. Although being no expert I'd like it if somebody else could give more detail about a hot russian summers effects on the UK Winter.

[Terminal Moraine]

It could muck up the winter synoptics, regarding russia's cold winter climate, winter will either not happen or be an absolute blizzard. Although being no expert I'd like it if somebody else could give more detail about a hot russian summers effects on the UK Winter.

The hot Russian summer will have no direct effect on our winter. Their hot summer is due to western Russia being on the eastern side of a persistent trough which is drawing up hot southerly sourced air. The trough is the downstream result of the ridge in mid-Atlantic which has given us a split summer between north west and south east.

If the pattern persists into winter, western Russia will be mild and dry whereas our winter is likely to be on the cold side.

[knocker]

There was a senior forecaster from the Met. Office on the Today programme this morning explaining the weather in Russia and the heavy monsoons in Pakistan. In simple terms it's down to our old friend the jet stream being much further south than normal (I think he said it's around the Nepal Plateau) which in effect 'traps' the very hot air over Russia and has led to the tragic events in Pakistan.

I've attached the 111200z 250mb wind chart for Russia. Well I think I have. I'm having a bit of trouble learning the procedure. How do you upload an image to the forum?Are, seems to work.

[The PIT]

Looks like it will continue for a while yet. I've seen one forecast with a cool down while others continue the 30C weather.

At the moment the pattern seems fairly locked. The chances of it staying that way until winter must be fairly remote though. If it does we would be fairly chilly but fairly dry away from the north.

[Optimus Prime]

The Jetstream moves about to the north and south in cycles that's how we get our average. Recent years it's been more to the north and very recently more to the south (2007 - 2010) Russia as well as all of Europe has experienced major heatwaves regardless of the Jetstream. It's all the product of the cooler sources becoming warmer and the warmer sources becoming even warmer.

[knocker]

The senior forecaster I referred too in my post was talking specifically about the current heatwave in Russia. It wasn't a general discussion about past heatwaves and the position of the jet.

[J07]

There was a senior forecaster from the Met. Office on the Today programme this morning explaining the weather in Russia and the heavy monsoons in Pakistan. In simple terms it's down to our old friend the jet stream being much further south than normal (I think he said it's around the Nepal Plateau) which in effect 'traps' the very hot air over Russia and has led to the tragic events in Pakistan.

But the difference is this is the Subtropical jet, whereas the only jet that directly affects the British Isles is the Polar.

[knocker]

Agreed but I'm not sure I get the point you are making.

[J07]

Agreed but I'm not sure I get the point you are making.

None major. Just "our old friend the jet stream" is not really accurate when its not the same system that ever visits the UK.

[Mikel Nimbus]

I think what may be interesting regarding this coming winter, is seeing what effect the large amount of deforestation due to the fires will have on air temps over Russia, with regards to solar heating.

Anyone clued up on the effects of trees and other flora on surface temps, as opposed to scorched earth? Also, is the amount of forest burnt, enough to make any impact either way?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

None major. Just "our old friend the jet stream" is not really accurate when its not the same system that ever visits the UK.

I think it is fair to say that the jetstream has shifted south and more notably more energy has gone from the polar jetsream. This is a cyclical phenomena and has been predicted in line with the change in perturbation cycle in Feb 2007. A very strange co-incidence that the jetstream shifted at the same time...or not as the case may be.

I wanted to post the following link, the heatwave is not due to colder bits getting less cold and warmer bits getting warmer....1936 was just as if not even more wild.

http://www.iceagenow.com/Unprecedented_Warming_in_US_and_Russia--Not.htm

1936 was the previous start of the last nina pertubation cycle which lasts about 36 years...the same cycle we entered now. Room for thought at least. The same happened in Russia in the late 1800s too.

BFTP

[Methuselah]

So, when two essentially random pattern-shifts coincide (I say the word 'random' as most of the primary causes [for something that happened during the century before last] remain either unknown or only guessed at?) we have an entirely reliable cause-and-effect mechanism?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So, when two essentially random pattern-shifts coincide (I say the word 'random' as most of the primary causes [for something that happened during the century before last] remain either unknown or only guessed at?) we have an entirely reliable cause-and-effect mechanism?

Put it this way Pete, CO2 AGW hasn't caused all three now has it? Like I say it may be coincidence but very possibly not.

BFTP

[Methuselah]

Put it this way Pete, CO2 AGW hasn't caused all three now has it? Like I say it may be coincidence but very possibly not.

BFTP

Absolutely not, Fred!

I am keeping an open mind on all the other things, too.