Good Septembers Following Poor Augusts?

[Duncan McAlister]

I thought today would have been the warmest day of the summer here owing to the sunshine all day and +8 hPa, it's certainly felt it with the light winds. To my surprise the highest value on the Met Office 'latest' page for Prestwick is 19.7C. 20+C days really have been as rare as hen's teeth here since late June.

Edited August 15, 2010 by Duncan McAlister

[Sunshine]

I was in Turkey for the first half of September 2006, so I'm not sure what it was like back here. I remember September 21st though, very hot with clear sunny skies (and I believe a date record of 29.0ºC was set somewhere)

August 2000 was sunny here, 2001 and 2002 were reasonable with a few hot days. 2003 was clearly the best August of the decade (34ºC here on the 9th). 2004 had a hot start before turning into a washout. 2005 was average overall, with 30ºC right at the end.

2006 was a huge letdown after the record breaking July, 2007 was cool and dry. 2008 was terrible with day after day of overcast skies. 2009 wasn't terrible here, but only one hot day on the 19th.

[reef]

Its a very telling statistic confirming that to get long sustained very warm spells in Britain is not the norm. People think back to Augusts like 1995 and 2003 and expect every August should be like them, in truth such months are anomalies.

I have never rated August here in N Britain. It is on average wetter than April, May, June and July up here and sunshine levels on average are lower than May, June and July. I rate my summer months in terms of dry sunny weather not necessarily temps. 5 day + spells of sunny dry weather with maxima in low - mid 20's is usually the best the majority of the country away from the SE can expect in an average summer. Dry sunny settled conditions are much more likely in May and June here than in August. What has dissapointed me has been the relatively poor July's we have experienced in recent years in terms of warm weather , it is when we generally expect our warmest weather. I'm indifferent to August.

Even in my location close to the east coast, May is actually the sunniest month of the year, with an average of 194 hours. Next comes July (190 hours), followed by August (182 hours) and June (180 hours). The standout figure is June, which has the highest 'potential' sunshine hours due to day length, but falls short of the other months. This would tend to suggest a predominance of more easterly winds, which could explain the month being better in your area.

I agree with you on July being a poor month in recent years. In the past decade, only 2006 and 2009 have had sunshine above average and only 2006 and 2010 have had below average rainfall. Six of those years also had more than 150% rainfall. Temperature-wise there have been 3 below average Julys in the decade, compared to one in June and none in August. May and June have had much more in the way of above average months, with 5 Mays being more than 1C above average, 5 Junes, but only 3 Julys and 2 Augusts. There have also been 5 above average Mays and Junes in the sunshine states, compared to just 2 Julys and 2 Augusts.

[Guest]

I thought today would have been the warmest day of the summer here owing to the sunshine all day and +8 hPa, it's certainly felt it with the light winds. To my surprise the highest value on the Met Office 'latest' page for Prestwick is 19.7C. 20+C days really have been as rare as hen's teeth here since late June.

At Glasgow Airport there were 3 20C or above days in July and today was the fourth so far in August. There have now been a total of 29 days this year where the temperature has been 20C or above, which passes for "hot" in Scotland. This seems to be fairly average if my quick look through WeatherOnline is right.

I think the problem is that June was exceptionally warm and dry up here and we've perhaps been lulled into a false benchmark for the rest of summer?

Fair enough, July was completely rubbish, but August is heading towards average or slightly above average in terms of temperature and average or slightly below average for rain.

[Coast]

So what has happened to the dog days of Summer 2010 then? This morning was colder and darker than late October!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Philip Eden's stats from Climate-uk for 1-14 August:

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Could the UK get its second "top 5 dullest in the last 100 years" August in the space of three years? Sunshine stands at 62% of average over England and Wales and the models point to a train of Atlantic lows bringing large amounts of cloud and frontal rain in the manner of 1-22 August 2008. I doubt that Scotland or Northern Ireland is faring much better sunshine wise (if at all).

[conor123]

It's like August is just devoid of any exciting weather whatsoever nowadays, most September's here over the past 10 years have been so much better sunshine wise and temperature wise and the last few years have had gorgeous summery Septembers, its like Autumn arrives on the 1st July here then the switch goes back to Summer for September for a month.

[Eugene]

It's like August is just devoid of any exciting weather whatsoever nowadays, most September's here over the past 10 years have been so much better sunshine wise and temperature wise and the last few years have had gorgeous summery Septembers, its like Autumn arrives on the 1st July here then the switch goes back to Summer for September for a month.

Wow i have to say i completely agree conor.

But i think this years September will be disappointing and not make up for the poor July/August in the west midlands, hopefully October will make up for it but of course any heat then is very rare indeed especially after the first week.

[MP-R]

Wow i have to say i completely agree conor.

But i think this years September will be disappointing and not make up for the poor July/August in the west midlands, hopefully October will make up for it but of course any heat then is very rare indeed especially after the first week.

Though what's the point in September being decent. Everyone goes back to work and school, the sun strength is weakening and there's less time and hours in the day for people to appreciate it. The Med have it right with summer weather in summer and deteriorating weather in September.

[AderynCoch]

Back to work? Some of us work during August you know!

Anyway, being something of a hermit I probably spent more time outside during school days than days off, so getting the nice weather in September suited me fine.

[MP-R]

Back to work? Some of us work during August you know!

Perhaps I didn't express that quite right, apologies. I mean there are plenty of parents who take time of work during the holidays, mostly for the younger kids. Equally, my Dad is unemployed and desperately trying to get a job at the moment but besides not getting the job after an interview that has happened, so many employees at these companies aren't available because they're off work on holiday. August is always a quiet month before everything fires up again in September.

[Snowyowl9]

The weather charts look very LA Nina and disturbed indeed.

This august is going to turn into a rough one, quick autumn,if you thought it`s been a rubbish august so far which actually it hasn`t,you ain`t seen nothing yet.

[Guest]

Philip Eden's stats from Climate-uk for 1-14 August:

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Could the UK get its second "top 5 dullest in the last 100 years" August in the space of three years? Sunshine stands at 62% of average over England and Wales and the models point to a train of Atlantic lows bringing large amounts of cloud and frontal rain in the manner of 1-22 August 2008. I doubt that Scotland or Northern Ireland is faring much better sunshine wise (if at all).

We're currently sitting at slightly below average for the month to date, but nothing that a couple of sunny days won't rectify. I don't think it's going to be inside the top 5 dullest in the last 100 years here. Although I'm sure the weather can prove me wrong, yet again :lol:

[Milhouse]

We're currently sitting at slightly below average for the month to date, but nothing that a couple of sunny days won't rectify. I don't think it's going to be inside the top 5 dullest in the last 100 years here. Although I'm sure the weather can prove me wrong, yet again :winky:

If it did turn out to be a dull month then it would be strange as i'm sure here we've already had more sunshine this August than the whole of July. The weekend just gone was mostly sunny, albeit a bit hazy.

[Summer of 95]

There seems every chance here of June ending up sunnier than July and August combined. That's quite a turnaround from the "lousy June, decent July/Aug" pattern that prevailed from about 1987-2003.

Warmest day this year is still 23rd May, and there seems little chance of that day's 28C being topped this month as that temp hasn't been reached in August since 2003.

[summer blizzard]

Well, baring a miricle, this August will be at least 0.5C cooler than average and around 1.5C cooler than July, we also have attrocious weather forecast this week for all areas, so i would say that the second half of this month will be classed as appaling.

[conor123]

Is there a trend being set here now, the signs are there next week for very warm air to be blasted up across the UK in time for Autumn so are we set to add yet another September to the better than August's list?

Last year was a particulary lovely September with days like Saturday 12th being warm then it ever got in July and August, of course 21st September 2006 is always the date that springs to mind when thinking of incredible warmth so late in year, perhaps were see another exceptional event this year.

Edited August 24, 2010 by conor123

[peterf]

i hope your right.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Not sure what the thread's about - too many apostrophes !!!

[Optimus Prime]

Good Octobers generally proceed poor summers. Generally cool September proceed cool summers.

[AderynCoch]

For what it's worth:

The years of the coldest Augusts (and the Septembers which followed them)

1912 (11.1C, joint 10th coldest)

1694 (10.5C, joint coldest)

1695 (11.5C, joint 18th coldest)

1725 (12.8C, joint 99th coldest)

1674 (10.5C, joint coldest)

1683 (13.0C, joint 124th coldest)

1844 (13.3C, joint 163rd coldest)

1845 (11.4C, joint 16th coldest)

1956 (14.3C, joint 281st coldest)

1817 (13.2C, joint 155th coldest)

1848 (12.8C, joint 101st coldest)

1860 (11.2C, joint 12th coldest)

1885 (12.2C, joint 52nd coldest)

1920 (13.0C, joint 124th coldest)

1922 (12.2C, joint 52nd coldest)

1830 (11.9C, joint 37th coldest)

1986 (11.3C, joint 14th coldest)

1737 (14.2C, joint 264th coldest)

1785 (13.6C, joint 203rd coldest)

1816 (11.8C, joint 33rd coldest)

1881 (12.7C, joint 89th coldest)

[Methuselah]

If there was a useful correlation, I'm sure that, by now, the experts would have found a way of using it to make their forecasts better...That's why I don't believe there is any such correlation??

[AderynCoch]

The warmest Septembers (and the Augusts which preceded them)

2006 (16.1C, joint 102nd warmest)

1729 (15.7C, joint 155th warmest)

1949 (16.8C, joint 50th warmest)

1865 (15.1C, joint 234th warmest)

1795 (16.6C, joint 60th warmest)

1760 (15.8C, joint 141st warmest)

1999 (16.1C, joint 102nd warmest)

1780 (17.6C, joint 12th warmest)

1895 (15.8C, joint 141st warmest)

1929 (15.4C, joint 195th warmest)

1731 (16.7C, joint 55th warmest)

1730 (16.3C, joint 84th warmest)

2005 (16.2C, joint 89th warmest)

1961 (15.4C, joint 195th warmest)

1898 (16.5C, joint 70th warmest)

1779 (17.6C, joint 12th warmest)

1750 (15.0C, joint 243rd warmest)

1958 (15.8C, joint 141st warmest)

1825 (16.3C, joint 84th warmest)

1708 (17.0C, joint 34th warmest)

1678 (15.0C, joint 243rd warmest)

[AderynCoch]

I've always had a cold September following a cold August down as one of the more reliable weather adages, and the above seems to corroborate this somewhat (7 of the 20 coldest Augusts were followed by a September also in the top 20, and only 2 of the 20 coldest Augusts were followed by a September above 14C). I see no correlation at all between a warm September and the preceding August.

In any case, this August won't be that cold CET-wise (the ones listed above are all below 14C).

Edited August 24, 2010 by AderynCoch

[Weather-history]

Poor does not necessarily just equate to cool, poor could also refer to as wet/dull as well. Infact a condition for poor for me is dullness and wetness regardless of temperature. You can have cool, dry sunny summer months which is IMO a lot better than a warm dull wet summer month.

I think 1985 is a good example of a poor August followed by a respectable September.

August 2004 was warm but a washout however the September was drier and not to bad.

1979 is another example of a poor August followed by a respectable September.

Edited August 24, 2010 by Mr_Data