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Major Hurricane Danielle


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Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham

Well they've had a goos luck inside the eye and found a few sub 940 readings but no stronger winds, so all quads have been tested and I'd say max winds are 105kts, CAT 3.

However Dvorak is T6 which is 115kts and the pressure would normally support 120-125kts.

So with 24hrs of possible strenghtening left we probably have a storm where the winds have yet to respond the the pressure and structure.

173430 2702N 06007W 6970 02657 9418 +178 +131 060023 026 024 004 03

173500 2701N 06006W 6962 02665 9414 +176 +132 057015 018 019 003 03

173530 2659N 06005W 6976 02643 9399 +191 +129 045002 007 016 004 00

173600 2658N 06004W 6962 02660 9396 +195 +128 245012 015 015 004 00

173630 2656N 06002W 6970 02661 9411 +192 +124 236029 036 029 005 03

173700 2655N 06002W 6956 02693 9434 +177 +135 243042 047 /// /// 03

173730 2655N 06004W 6967 02667 9432 +169 +131 248038 046 030 005 03

173800 2656N 06005W 6959 02665 9412 +181 +110 243012 018 028 004 00

173830 2657N 06007W 6974 02647 9411 +184 +095 347004 008 017 004 00

173900 2659N 06008W 6965 02662 9419 +179 +097 027014 018 017 004 00

173930 2700N 06009W 6974 02656 9430 +171 +100 037020 020 015 005 03

174000 2702N 06009W 6970 02668 9440 +166 +106 041024 026 /// /// 03

174030 2703N 06008W 6966 02672 9428 +180 +100 060023 027 /// /// 03

174100 2702N 06006W 6934 02695 9413 +181 +094 049014 016 005 005 03

174130 2700N 06005W 6962 02661 9406 +188 +092 081004 008 004 006 00

174200 2659N 06004W 6964 02663 9405 +192 +089 208011 015 013 005 00

174230 2657N 06003W 6971 02652 9409 +188 +102 216023 031 030 006 00

174300 2656N 06001W 6970 02669 9430 +177 +119 229054 062 052 006 00

174330 2655N 06000W 6974 02694 9478 +161 +137 225079 086 063 007 00

174400 2654N 05959W 6974 02734 9532 +149 +136 228100 109 067 008 00

thanks for that iceberg,whats your thoughts on it's future track and influence if any on the UK?peter.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

She still seems to be strenghtening, so the next recon might well find winds down to 935mb or so which would support 125-130kt winds (if she ever got round to getting them ! ).

As for the UK, the models are hinting more and more that Danielle and the subsequent canes are forcing the Azores high and pulling it up to the UK, shooting the canes to Greenland. If this is the case I would expect some nice weather in the UK over the next couple of weeks.

We can't lose really, with nice weather or the excitement of ex-tropical storms !.

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

Danielle still seems to be intensifying; convection is still building. Given her large size it'll probably take a good few hours at least for the winds to respond so we should keep our eyes on the 10pm and 4am (if we're awake then) advisories.

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Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham

She still seems to be strenghtening, so the next recon might well find winds down to 935mb or so which would support 125-130kt winds (if she ever got round to getting them ! ).

As for the UK, the models are hinting more and more that Danielle and the subsequent canes are forcing the Azores high and pulling it up to the UK, shooting the canes to Greenland. If this is the case I would expect some nice weather in the UK over the next couple of weeks.

We can't lose really, with nice weather or the excitement of ex-tropical storms !.

i wasn't sure but thats the lines i was guesing along.thanks again for all the inside knowledge it's much apreciated.peter

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

Everything apart from the winds themselves seem to indicate Danielle is intensifying, so this is rather bizarre. Convection continues to build and the pressure still seems to be dropping at a fairly rapid pace.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Danielle is definately still intensifying and deepening, it's never looked as good as it does now.

(picture against the US east coast and close up of eye).

Recon will be back in around midnight, the winds must respond at some point.

post-6326-053135800 1282941207_thumb.png

post-6326-015702000 1282941223_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

The next advisory is due in the next 20 minutes. Will be interesting to see what they have to say, especially on the forecast discussion.

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

I can't see any evidence of conecentric eyewalls, but given how strong Danielle is and the fact we haven't seen one yet, it's quite likely she'll undergo one in the next day or so.

Advisory is out. They've started doing intermediate ones too so we'll have updates every 3 hours.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 272043

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 26

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010

500 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...DANIELLE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...TROPICAL STORM WATCH

ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.3N 60.3W

ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

AT 5 PM EDT...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL

STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST. DANIELLE IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD

THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF

DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA SATURDAY

NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING

THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205

MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT AIR FORCE RESERVE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF...LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT BERMUDA

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE

ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS

ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

Edited by Paranoid
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF DANIELLE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE

DURING THE DAY AND THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYE REMAINS VERY

DISTINCT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND

CONTINUES TO IMPROVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. AN AIR

FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED DANIELLE EARLIER

THIS AFTERNOON AND FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 942 MB AND MAXIMUM

700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 119 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 107 KT

SURFACE WINDS. MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE ONLY 101 KT...HOWEVER.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE A CONSENSUS

T6.0/115 KT. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE T6.4/125 KT... AND HAVE

BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A BLEND OF THESE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT FOR

THIS ADVISORY.

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Posted
  • Location: Southport, UK
  • Location: Southport, UK

I'm lurking like a big fat lurker on this forum (as I always do when it's hurricane season) but a couple of things occur to me about Danielle:

1. She's purty

2. It looks like she's turning north on the nhc site satellite loop, although it could just be a deceptive wobble, and will go a teensy bit east of the forecast track they've just plopped down.

Edited by mrpsb
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Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham

I'm lurking like a big fat lurker on this forum (as I always do when it's hurricane season) but a couple of things occur to me about Danielle:

1. She's purty

2. It looks like she's turning north on the nhc site satellite loop, although it could just be a deceptive wobble, and will go a teensy bit east of the forecast track they've just plopped down.

welcome lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Danielle is going through the anticipated Eye Wall replacement cycle (EWRC or ERC), many hurricanes don't manage to pull these off very well, the ones that do (less than 50%) strengthen rapidly if they can produce the a good large outer wall and the inner wall collapses quickly.

Danielle's pressure has gone up (which is normal) and has managed to produce two concentric eyes walls with the larger new one at 60nm and the inner one at 30nm, so the job is half done now.

All She needs to do is now is get rid of the 30mn one and she will start intensifying rapidly again (at least in pressure).

A 60nm eye is pretty large however and she might be being a bit greedy, if it fails then IMO she will quickly degrade to a CAT 2 storm.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062010

A. 28/05:34:40Z

B. 28 deg 12 min N

061 deg 03 min W

C. 700 mb 2668 m

D. 70 kt

E. 309 deg 33 nm

F. 042 deg 81 kt

G. 309 deg 37 nm

H. 950 mb

I. 10 C / 3049 m

J. 15 C / 3048 m

K. 14 C / NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. CO30-60

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF305 0206A DANIELLE OB 11

MAX FL WIND 100 KT NE QUAD 03:59:20Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 91 KT SE QUAD 05:45:20Z

INNER EYEWALL BECOMING RAGGED

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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia

60nm is certainly a big eye. It does look as though Danielle will take a bit too long in organising following such a significant EWRC, so that she's unlikely to get another good stab at intensification before unfavourable conditions start to take their toll.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

Beautiful Storm

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Her structure looks ok, but i dont think she has gotten rid of the smaller eye yet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

It's too late for further intensification in my opinion, she is already heading east of north.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

A view from space of this monster

152489072.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=0ZRYP5X5F6FSMBCCSE82&Expires=1283031936&Signature=DWo2SoMQWK4lGcipjnTWLIGL1q4%3D

‘Hurricane Danielle’ – as we passed directly overhead this evening in the central Atlantic. I’m not a tropical storm expert by any means, but Danielle looks very well-organized with a very well-defined eye. The storm looks spectacularly peaceful from this vantage point…but, I can only imagine the tempest below those clouds. Many thoughts and prayers from space for a favorable path.
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Danielle seems to have given up on the whole massive eye scenario (which is all to the good really as it was a bit to difficult for her to pull off).

Atm probably a CAT 2 moving it's way northwards before going extra-tropical, still a nice looking hurricane though.

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