Storm General Discussion Thread

[tinybill]

if looking at the radar i can see big problems corwall devon soon

[cyclonic happiness]

An inch of rain or one and a half inches isn't (hopefully) going to be to bad, the land is still dry and can cope with a good amount of rain.

It's not the same as 2007 where the ground was saturated, hopefully we can stay clear of the floods this time, friday is more of a worry if more for the winds.

Edited August 22, 2010 by cyclonic happiness

[coldfingers]

Have had moderate rain for around an hour but now turning heavy, very dark indeed now. Winds though only F4 gusting F5. Wonder when the gales are due to move in as the Met O has F8 gale possibly F9 for tonight/tomorrow.

[SteveElbows]

So, any other decent webcams anywhere in the target area for tonights rain, preferably ones that have a reasonable framerate rather than just updated every x minutes?

[Ian Fergusson]

Yes but most regions went orange long before us, we stayed yellow till pretty recently.

Yup - - Because thankfully the PWS warning system needs proper deliberation and high % consensual output, including across the high-res models too (UKpp etc), with various discussion then taking place before they are ever issued.... unlike just chucking some warning gig onto private weather websites where the public backlash / post-hoc peer review will be irrelevant.

Tricky job for the guys at Exeter's Ops Centre to call correctly and they do a sterling job. FLASH warnings recently issued are there because the new high-res models offer support.

Cheers, Ian

[TEITS]

Around 50-60mm of rainfall predicted for my area.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/08/22/basis12/ukuk/rsum/10082312_2212.gif

Gusty winds for E Anglia as the storm departs into the N Sea.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/08/22/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10082309_2212.gif

[Ian Fergusson]

An inch of rain or one and a half inches isn't (hopefully) going to be to bad, the land is still dry and can cope with a good amount of rain.

It's not the same as 2007 where the ground was saturated, hopefully we can stay clear of the floods this time, friday is more of a worry if more for the winds.

Agree, but the 2007 MCS event resulted in fairly slow (-ish !!) fluvial flooding; this is more of a localised flash-flood problem brewing due to high rainfall totals / rates in some districts across timeframe under 3hrs.

[SteveElbows]

Cheers for the detail Ian, Im not a huge critic of the met at all, I pay a fair amount of attention to their stuff and I know they have quite the burden of responsibility. Generally I think they do a good job, their tabular forecasts can be a tad misleading sometimes and they seem to err on the side of not mentioning thunder unless the chance is really high, but having tried to learn something about weather in the last 9 months Ive decided its a tricky job that often seems to be thankless, especially when people measure the forecasts against what happens in their own precise location as opposed to the general picture.

[kerensa]

just started raining here, very dark no wind as yet, seems on the edge at mo!!! the heavier stuff still to come!

[cyclonic happiness]

Yup - - Because thankfully the PWS warning system needs proper deliberation and high % consensual output, including across the high-res models too (UKpp etc), with various discussion then taking place before they are ever issued.... unlike just chucking some warning gig onto private weather websites where the public backlash / post-hoc peer review will be irrelevant.

Tricky job for the guys at Exeter's Ops Centre to call correctly and they do a sterling job. FLASH warnings recently issued are there because the new high-res models offer support.

Cheers, Ian

Most of it is to do with the fact that they are really scared of buggering it up, and who'd blame them, I'd hate to be a BBC weather forecaster these days, forthe fact that they always get hung, drawn and quatered before even speaking after the weather does an even less convincing u-turn that even westminster gets away with.

Trouble is they seen to be more scared of 'crying wolf' than actually getting a storm forecast wrong, and in their defense, their storm forecasts are good in general, although the news doesn't seen to want to pick up on them as football is always more important than whether one gets to the match or not alive.

[SteveElbows]

So anyways my point with mentioning the met flash warnings for my area appearing recently was meant to be that I took it as a sign that at least some of the heaviest rain has a higher chance of hitting me than previous model runs & earlier radar realities may have indicated.

[Tim Bland]

So...Are we going to see any embeded thunderstorms in this low? Find it hard to get excited about heavy rain!!

[TEITS]

Have had moderate rain for around an hour but now turning heavy, very dark indeed now. Winds though only F4 gusting F5. Wonder when the gales are due to move in as the Met O has F8 gale possibly F9 for tonight/tomorrow.

The strongest winds won't arrive until overnight into tomorrow morning. The storm is currently to the SW measuring 1002mb. As this storm tracks NE and develops the pressure will drop to around 986mb. The strongest winds will be on the W flank of the LP and in my opinion the coasts of Lincs, Norfolk will experience the strongest winds.

[SteveElbows]

So...Are we going to see any embeded thunderstorms in this low? Find it hard to get excited about heavy rain!!

Opinions about this expressed earlier seemed to be a long the lines of maybe, more likely after midnight , but not highly likely.

[camperstron]

So...Are we going to see any embeded thunderstorms in this low? Find it hard to get excited about heavy rain!!

I was out and about doing the school run during the 2007 event. It was really exciting actually - I've never experienced prolonged, heavy rain like that before or since.

IMHO it's as exciting as heavy snow, but then again I love all extreme weather. And watching this baby develop and move in land is fascinating *saddo smilie*

[andy_leics22]

So then, who is expecting storms tonight? I was expecting something until I saw the CAPE and Lifted index, it's like Leicester City's form at the moment, poor.

[cyclonic happiness]

The strongest winds won't arrive until overnight into tomorrow morning. The storm is currently to the SW measuring 1002mb. As this storm tracks NE and develops the pressure will drop to around 986mb. The strongest winds will be on the W flank of the LP and in my opinion the coasts of Lincs, Norfolk will experience the strongest winds.

I hope those areas will be ok, they are in the middle of the holiday season and there will be alot of folk about, and what with all the trees in full leaf, it could be very dangerous for the east coast??!

[SteveElbows]

Im finding it quite excrutiating to watch on the radar so far due to how slowly the heavy stuff is moving.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Just about starting here

[cyclonic happiness]

I was out and about doing the school run during the 2007 event. It was really exciting actually - I've never experienced prolonged, heavy rain like that before or since.

IMHO it's as exciting as heavy snow, but then again I love all extreme weather. And watching this baby develop and move in land is fascinating *saddo smilie*

We all feel that truth be told, but with an underlying feeling of guilt and dread....I sometime want the owrst to happen....maybe that is an underlying theme with alot of weather watchers?

Would be a good theme for a thread, as long as it's not 'in your back yard' we generally wish for hurricaines and floods don't we?

[tornadomanuk]

Line of cells seem to be developing just to the SW of Ilminster (TA19). Interesting times ahead me thinks!

Damn its so hard watching golf on Sky Player and radar watching and forum watching too!!!!

Edited August 22, 2010 by tornadomanuk

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Street lights on before just before sunset

[vortex_liam]

lol, says light rain but nothing

[Kiwi]

I hope those areas will be ok, they are in the middle of the holiday season and there will be alot of folk about, and what with all the trees in full leaf, it could be very dangerous for the east coast??!

Given that its the school holidays it could be a really unpleasant night for the thousands of families out there camping tonight. Add to that many campsites being close to rivers or in exposed coastal areas ....not a lot of fun.

[camperstron]

We all feel that truth be told, but with an underlying feeling of guilt and dread....I sometime want the owrst to happen....maybe that is an underlying theme with alot of weather watchers?

Would be a good theme for a thread, as long as it's not 'in your back yard' we generally wish for hurricaines and floods don't we?

Yes! You have hit the nail on the head there!

That would be an interesting thread theme though wouldn't it? My best/worst weather scenario came to pass in January 2004 when Birmingham was gridlocked due to a rapid drop in temp, freezing rain and snow. I got home from the school run ok, my OH got home from work ok.....but it was my due date and I was terrified that I'd go into labour and not be able to get access to drugs But I was still over the moon at the weather scenario that I was witnessing!