Christmas 2010

[Milhouse]

I remember Christmas Eve 2008 feeling very mild. The max was only about 8c but it was such a bizzare experience doing some last minuite Christmas shopping when everywhere was looking so un-wintry. It almost felt warm.

Last year Christmas was pretty unremarkable here with the remnants of the snow still on the ground and the day being mostly cloudy i recall. Top temp around 3c.

Edited September 10, 2010 by Milhouse

[Thundery wintry showers]

2002 was by far the mildest I've ever experienced - it felt more like Easter with sunshine at first and a high of 15C! That of course dropped when it began raining later in the day.

I didn't mind Christmas Day 2002 in Cleadon too much. It was an exceptionally dull month in the North East, dominated by south-easterly winds, but on Christmas Day itself there was some hazy sunshine.

My favourite Christmas Day was the 1995 one, a quite fitting end to a remarkable year for weather. In Cleadon there was a spell of snow from a decaying polar low on Christmas Eve, which deposited 1-2 inches, then on Christmas Day a strengthening northerly flow brought frequent heavy blowing snow showers near the east coast and took the snow depth to 3 inches. I remember having quite a hectic snowball fight with my dad and sister that afternoon. However, the polar low on Christmas Eve fizzled as it brought its band of snow south through northern England so many areas south of the Border did not have a white Christmas that year (e.g. no more than a dusting at nearby Durham).

Conversely Christmas Day 2004 fell during that phase when all the exciting weather seemed to avoid me- it was during my spell at Lancaster University, when it kept snowing in Tyneside while I was in Lancaster, and then when I went on my Christmas holidays to Tyneside, Lancaster had a white Christmas. Come to think of it, Lancaster has had a remarkable number of white Christmasses considering how little in the way of lasting snow cover it usually gets, with Christmas Day providing its only meaningful snow cover of the entire 2004/05 season.

[stewfox]

I

Last year Christmas was pretty unremarkable here with the remnants of the snow still on the ground and the day being mostly cloudy i recall. Top temp around 3c.

Remnants of snow on the ground on Christmas day.

Beats +10c with drizzle surely ?

Edited September 10, 2010 by stewfox

[Costa Del Fal]

2004 still the last time Birmingham had a white Christmas, though did come close last year with some heavy snow during the evening of Dec 23 (albeit rather slushy stuff lol). Would love to have a white Christmas this year, but wouldn't be disappointed if it was instead crisp, cold and sunny.

Birmingham was officially announced to have a white Christmas last year?

[Wynn D Woo]

Last year Christmas was pretty unremarkable here with the remnants of the snow still on the ground and the day being mostly cloudy i recall. Top temp around 3c.

I would take that, we had to wait until jan to see any snow around here. 2004 was the last white christmas when a 10 min shower passed over and was intense enough to leave a dusting which lay for about an hour.

[Backtrack]

Forecast headline

Our second Christmas 2010 forecast update brings no change. We continue to expect rather unsettled weather to cover the UK on Christmas day, with showers or longer spells of precipitation likely. Although we're expecting it to be chilly, most of the precipitation away from northern hills is expected to be rain. Over high ground in the north some sleet or snow is much more likely.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15% - 30% (risk increases to 30% further north)

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 5% - 15% (risk increases to 15% further north)

[Stuart]

Birmingham was officially announced to have a white Christmas last year?

I think there did but was not sure

Edited September 10, 2010 by Stuart

[Thundery wintry showers]

There are differing definitions of a white Christmas. The "official" one, used by the bookies, is that a flake of sleet or snow falls at some point on Christmas Day (so it can be a two minute rain shower with a bit of sleet mixed in, and it counts). Conversely, and quite ridiculously, you can have a foot of snow on the ground but not an official white Christmas, as happened widely in 1981, 1995 and 2009.

But most of us associate the concept of a white Christmas with snow lying on the ground. I have traditionally used "more than 50% snow cover at some point between 0900 and 2359 GMT on Christmas Day" as my criteria for a white Christmas over the years- this is essentially an extension of the Met Office's definition of a "snow day" (>50% snow cover at 0900 GMT) but takes into account the possibility of there being no snow lying at 0900 but accumulations later in the day, as happened in Cleadon on Christmas Day 1993 and in Lancaster on Christmas Day 2004. It also means Christmas Days with lying snow but no snowfall on the day itself, such as Christmas Day 2009 in Cleadon, are eligible.

[Weather-history]

I remember Christmas Eve 2008 feeling very mild. The max was only about 8c but it was such a bizzare experience doing some last minuite Christmas shopping when everywhere was looking so un-wintry. It almost felt warm.

Yes I felt the same way. It felt a lot milder than it actually was, brilliant sunshine and a couple of superb sundogs.

[snowingman]

FACT

Birmingham DID have a white Xmas 2009 - why, because I made £50 from a £5 bet!!

[Fozfoster]

Birmingham was officially announced to have a white Christmas last year?

Yes i won money on bet365 for white christmas for birmingham and i got 8/1

Edited September 10, 2010 by fozfoster

[Fozfoster]

Well done to you both! Think I'll place a bet this year on Birmingham having a white Christmas - seems you can't lose whether there's snow or not.

LOL

[Costa Del Fal]

Well done to you both! Think I'll place a bet this year on Birmingham having a white Christmas - seems you can't lose whether there's snow or not.

Lol, must have been a flake of snow at some point last year.

Though not total snow cover here on that day we had quite a good cover here still as some snow from the previous weekend was refusing to go.

[LomondSnowstorm]

You'll be happy so long as your farm is ok and I would have to agree with that sentiment NL. It was a right struggle for you last winter, one which all of us on the Scottish thread followed and felt for you. Good luck to you this winter, we're all here thinking about the people like you who keep us going :)

I agree with those sentiments entirely:) . I hope things are somewhat easier for farmers this winter though obviously I'm not going to repent for being a snowlover:lol: .

I'm sorry I wrongly accused you of hogging snow in March when in fact you had none. It must've been some of of the high altitude East Central dwellers like SS, Snooz, Big Innes/ Blitzen in the snowdome turned big beasterly blizzard magnet of Lochgelly and scottishandy in Dunblane. Still, it was a horrendous waste of a red warning - like being told you'd won the jackpot in the lottery when in fact you ended up with a tenner. You wouldn't have minded an unexpected tenner but after eyeing up the jackpot it's impossible not to think of what might've been. Those are the perils of taking Met Office weather warnings seriously i guess:whistling:

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hi Lomond! - tongue in cheek I know, but perhaps 40ft snowdrifts? I usually approach the winter thread full of optimism which is usually shot down in flames as the season progresses but this year I feel there is food for thought! If, and I say if, the gulf stream is still on the wain as many claim, then we could be in for something which we probably would not want to experience all that often! The NOAA charts at the moment are awe inspiring to say the least with regards to the interrupted flow of the gulf stream and what that could lead to in our neck of the woods, no? As ever, time will tell. Had a weeks holiday down in Devon this year and the weather was truly awful! So much so that I felt I had not had a holiday when I returned home. Luckily however, some friends who have a villa in Spain, asked me to join them for a few days and I cannot tell you the difference I felt after some constant sun and swimming! However, back to the real world and our climate! Compared to the rest of Britain it appears, last year for me was somewhat disappointing with regards to snowfall amounts. Hopefully, we will receive better synoptics which will penetrate our Fife snow dome once and for all! I live in hope.

The snowdome was pretty bad here last year, especially the latter part, though I recall you didn't do as badly as us in those events? My summer was amazing, starting with the school trip to Baltimore which was experiencing 37C heat and some epic thunderstorms when we went. Our family holiday to the Lake District had pretty starkly contrasting weather with quite a lot of rain but given the reputation of that area's weather and the flooding of November 2009 when the cottage we stayed in was actually underwater I think we came off lightly:lol: . I was also at a camp at Nethybridge which was an amazing experience but it was positively freezing at times, especially on the day we went kayaking. As for this winter, things don't look too bad at the moment but I'm still not willing to venture a guess at this stage. It looks good for a cold and wet autumn though I reckon, so hopefully we'll get our first snowfall a bit earlier than last year (though I doubt the first snowfall will be followed by a month of continuous snowfall like last winter either!).

[Stuart]

There are Some good News on this update

Christmas 2010: Increased snow risk

Christmas weather forecast introduction

Welcome to our dedicated Christmas 2010 weather forecast page. This will update regularly during the run up to Christmas from September 1st and will take into account the weather patterns which develop during the autumn.

Forecast headline

Our third Christmas 2010 forecast update brings a big increase in the chance of snow falling on Christmas day. We think there's a significant probability of the UK being under a cold northerly air stream on Christmas day bringing the risk of snow showers, particularly in the north.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 30% - 45% (risk increases to 45% further north)

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15% - 30% (risk increases to 30% further north)

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2010

Update 2, 06/09/2010

Update 3, 20/09/2010

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202010%20weather%20forecast.aspx

[artfularshavin]

i personally believe that this christams will be chilly.not cold perhaps an early frost! in a light southeasterly flow!

[Thundery wintry showers]

The snowdome was pretty bad here last year, especially the latter part, though I recall you didn't do as badly as us in those events? My summer was amazing, starting with the school trip to Baltimore which was experiencing 37C heat and some epic thunderstorms when we went. Our family holiday to the Lake District had pretty starkly contrasting weather with quite a lot of rain but given the reputation of that area's weather and the flooding of November 2009 when the cottage we stayed in was actually underwater I think we came off lightly:lol: . I was also at a camp at Nethybridge which was an amazing experience but it was positively freezing at times, especially on the day we went kayaking. As for this winter, things don't look too bad at the moment but I'm still not willing to venture a guess at this stage. It looks good for a cold and wet autumn though I reckon, so hopefully we'll get our first snowfall a bit earlier than last year (though I doubt the first snowfall will be followed by a month of continuous snowfall like last winter either!).

I remember you came across as saying you'd had a fair amount of snow during the period 17 December to 9 January, and if anything, more than I had in Cleadon, so was the rest of the winter close to being a non-event then? Long-term averages indicate that Fife is indeed a bit of a "snow dome" due to shelter from the north and being almost at sea level, indeed on average a large majority of north-east England and East Anglia see more snow than Fife.

[Methuselah]

In all honesty, I can say that I have absolutely no idea which way the wind will be blowing on Xmas Day...

[Cymro]

We haven't really had an overly mild christmas here where I live, we've had 5 white christmas' in the last 15 years not bad really. Always have cold around new years and christmas especially in recent years, but it never forms the right syntpoics for the white stuff to actually fall.

[johnholmes]

every year we have this idea that its possible to predict for ONE day 3 months in advance-rubbish, fun with folks ideas though.

Maybe we should get Paul to run a sweep stake, the one with the nearest forecast issued by end of October to the actual weather recorded in their area, gets 6 months free Extra!

[Backtrack]

every year we have this idea that its possible to predict for ONE day 3 months in advance-rubbish, fun with folks ideas though.

Maybe we should get Paul to run a sweep stake, the one with the nearest forecast issued by end of October to the actual weather recorded in their area, gets 6 months free Extra!

Great idea, i'm in!

[Cymro]

Great idea, i'm in!

I'll second that

[cyclonic happiness]

every year we have this idea that its possible to predict for ONE day 3 months in advance-rubbish, fun with folks ideas though.

Maybe we should get Paul to run a sweep stake, the one with the nearest forecast issued by end of October to the actual weather recorded in their area, gets 6 months free Extra!

to what degree of accuracy?

I'm in!

[Weather-history]

In all honesty, I can say that I have absolutely no idea which way the wind will be blowing on Xmas Day...

It may not be blowing at all, it could be flat calm.

Edited September 26, 2010 by Mr_Data