Christmas 2010

[Essan]

Well Paddy Power are already offering odds of just 7/2 that 1mm of snow would fall in London on Christmas Day. No, I don't know how they'll show that 1mm of snow has/hasn't fallen either

http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/news/18225464/White+Christmas+Betting+Odds+2010+Has+London+And+Dublin+Looking+Chilly.html

[Iceni]

Well Paddy Power are already offering odds of just 7/2 that 1mm of snow would fall in London on Christmas Day. No, I don't know how they'll show that 1mm of snow has/hasn't fallen either

http://www.online-be...ing+Chilly.html

This is from NetWeather radar on Christmas morning, 2009. And I had a £20 bet on it snowing in London on Christmas Day. They didn't pay out — what a swizz.

Edited September 26, 2010 by Iceni

[Stuart]

Forecast headline

Our fourth Christmas 2010 forecast update brings suggests another slight increase in the chance of snow falling on Christmas day in parts of the country. We think there's a significant probability of the UK being under a cold northerly air stream on Christmas day bringing the risk of snow showers, particularly in the north.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 35% - 45% (risk increases to 45% further north)

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20% - 30% (risk increases to 30% further north)

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2010

Update 2, 06/09/2010

Update 3, 20/09/2010

Update 4, 03/10/2010

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202010%20weather%20forecast.aspx

[Stuart]

40% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-10-17 17:25:00

Next Forecast: 2010-10-22 22:00:00

Synopsis

Current long range model predictions seem to favour a cooler than average December. Recent charts have often hinted at wintry, cold weather close or over the UK for the big day itself. The most favourable source is from the North at this moment in time so any showery precipitation would favour many Northern, Eastern and Western coasts. Proper bands of precipitation would of course affect many other areas. Of course this will change over time but currently a cool or even cold day seems quite likely with the given set up so sunshine for inland areas and showers, perhaps wintry for many coasts with some going inland at times. In the North especially any Northerly winds would make it feel bitter outside. Milder conditions may prevail in the South West where the Atlantic may try and keep influence.

http://www.ukasf.co....forecast/id-73/

Edited October 17, 2010 by Stuart

[Stuart]

40% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-10-22 22:18:00

Next Forecast: 2010-10-30 21:00:00

Synopsis

The current forecast remains rather similar to last weeks, in that the long range charts continue to suggest a cold spell of some sort around Christmas Day. While it is currently not forecast on the models to be anything significant, such a set up may give some wintry showers especially in Coastal areas and more so in the North. A rather dry day is forecast for most inland areas although of course, a few showers could crop up or move inland, perhaps wintry. Sunny spells would seem a most likely feature of the day for most. A wind from the North West/North seems most likely at this current time with this leading to a cool day in the South and fairly cold in the North where the highest risk of anything wintry will be, especially on higher ground.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/module-christmas/

[Thunder Snow]

When do the NW xmas forecasts start?, not that i don't trust TWO. lol :unsure:

[Stuart]

here come Two forcast

Forecast headline

Our fifth Christmas 2010 forecast update suggests a reduced chance of snow falling on Christmas day across Britain. Chances overall are now close to or just higher than normal. At the moment we think the most likely outcome is for rather cold and wet weather during the Christmas holiday, with an increasing risk of sleet or snow further north and over higher ground.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20% - 30% (risk increases to 30% further north)

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10% - 25% (risk increases to 25% further east)

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2010

Update 2, 06/09/2010

Update 3, 20/09/2010

Update 4, 03/10/2010

Update 5, 24/10/2010

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202010%20weather%20forecast.aspx

[ZONE 51]

It seems many are getting a little worried about this winter, some things i read online are cold lovers concerns of mild winter ahead! , im staying with my thoughts on a bitter cold december uk. so if december is mixed with atlantic trying to get in, if it does go that way then im sure their be plenty of snow as the cold air in the east side britain would be their at least, i think the jet is going on holiday again this winter! (further south)

Edited October 25, 2010 by nimbilus

[cheeky_monkey]

Funny thing here in Edmonton is they dont bet on white xmas because they are always white..they bet on a white/green halloween!

[Stuart]

30% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-10-30 23:00:00

Next Forecast: 2010-11-05 22:00:00

Synopsis

This update brings a slightly reduced risk for pretty much everyone for Christmas Day. Recent long range charts have favoured a more milder pattern on the big day. Although nothing especially mild , the chance of snow at the moment doesnt seem likely apart from maybe higher ground in the North. A few runs have suggested a cold and perhaps wintry Christmas day though it has tended back away from this compared to previous updates. Should the current pattern the models predict come off, bands of rain or showers are possible as well as sunny spells, perhaps prolonged. Coolest temps most likely the further East you are. Fairly mild in the South West given the current prediction.

http://www.ukasf.co....dule-christmas/

Edited October 31, 2010 by Stuart

[Stuart]

40% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-11-06 23:23:00

Next Forecast: 2010-11-10 22:00:00

Synopsis

This update brings a slightly higher risk of snow for the big day across the United Kingdom. Longer range charts continue throw a mix of milder and colder options so certainly nothing specific is being suggested right now. However there currently seems a good confidence that cold enough air will be present across the North at least or not too far which may allow for some wintry conditions, especially on high ground. Inland areas are likely to be the driest with sunny spells possible. Coastal areas more prone to showers and longer periods of precipitation. A cool or even cold day seems likely. The chance of any very mild weather at the moment seems very unlikely.

http://www.ukasf.co....dule-christmas/

Edited November 7, 2010 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Christmas 2010: Snow risk above average

Forecast headline

Our sixth Christmas 2010 forecast update suggests a slightly increased chance of snow falling on Christmas day across Britain. Chances overall are now higher than average. At the moment we think the most likely outcome is for rather cold and unsettled spell of weather during the Christmas holiday, with an increasing risk of sleet or snow further north and over higher ground.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25% - 35% (risk increases to 30% further north)

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15% - 25% (risk increases to 25% further east)

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2010

Update 2, 06/09/2010

Update 3, 20/09/2010

Update 4, 03/10/2010

Update 5, 24/10/2010

Update 6, 07/11/2010

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202010%20weather%20forecast.aspx

[Stuart]

40% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-11-10 23:03:00

Next Forecast: 2010-11-15 22:00:00

Synopsis

gain, a continuation in the range of output from the long range models. Each day has shown something different recently however overall, a favour towards colder than average conditions seems likely. Cold enough air for something wintry, even if just over high ground seems quite possible on Christmas day. The direction of the flow would seem most likely to be from the North West to East and therefore showers, perhaps widespread is likely. Showers would be most frequent towards the coast and should air be cold enough, something wintry cant be ruled out. Overall a mostly cloudy day with showers, perhaps widespread and possibly merging to give longer spells of precipitation. A good chance at this moment in time for cold enough air to deliver something wintry somewhere in the UK (perhaps for numerous places).

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/module-christmas/

[Weather-history]

Christmas Day is now on the CFS synoptic charts

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2010/11/11/basis00/euro/pslv/10122512_1100.gif

Edited November 14, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Snowyowl9]

Last christmas was certainly very special the most snow and coldest since 2004.

Foggiest I`ve ever seen.

[BARRY]

Last christmas was certainly very special the most snow and coldest since 2004.

Foggiest I`ve ever seen.

Was a normal one here, No snow no fog quite walk to the pub, In fact we had one day sorry 10 minutes of snow all winter

[jethro]

Can someone interpret that CFS synoptic chart for thicko here please?

[Stuart]

Nice to see the CFS still looking good

[johnholmes]

Can someone interpret that CFS synoptic chart for thicko here please?

low pressure between Iceland and Scotland, with high pressure in the Azores area-winds from a westerly point, very light in the middle of the UK, stronger in the NW and SW; on the cold side especially in the middle with frost and possibly fog patches, less settled where there is more wind?

any good?

I think you are just pretending

Incidentally that chart is as likely to stay like that as I am to win the pools (I don't do them!)

Edited November 14, 2010 by johnholmes

[I remember Atlantic 252]

CFS chart posted above shows a mild Xmas day, but of course miles off yet, just listened to white Xmas on 356 VH1 (david gest top 40 Xmas crackers!

Edited November 14, 2010 by snow? norfolk n chance

[jethro]

low pressure between Iceland and Scotland, with high pressure in the Azores area-winds from a westerly point, very light in the middle of the UK, stronger in the NW and SW; on the cold side especially in the middle with frost and possibly fog patches, less settled where there is more wind?

any good?

I think you are just pretending

Incidentally that chart is as likely to stay like that as I am to win the pools (I don't do them!)

Thank you John.

I wish I was pretending but sadly, despite my best (alright, some) effort, reading weather charts escapes me. Give me the long term climate stuff or Chino/GP's technical stuff any day over a synoptic chart - perhaps I'm synoptic charts dyslexic? Sounds better than thicko, sadly I think the latter's probably closer to the mark.

CFS chart posted above shows a mild Xmas day, but of course miles off yet, just listened to white Xmas on 356 VH1 (david gest top 40 Xmas crackers!

Really? That's scary.

[Stuart]

Forecast headline

Our seventh Christmas 2010 forecast update suggests an increased chance of snow falling on Christmas day across Britain. Chances overall are now higher than average. At the time of issue the medium range forecasts are suggesting a cold pattern which can take a long time to break down. The probability is that even if it becomes established in late November, it will break down during the first half of December, however, cold air is likely to remain close to Britain, bringing an increased risk of snow during the Xmas period.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 35% - 40% (risk increases to 40% further east)

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20% - 35% (risk increases to 35% further east)

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2010

Update 2, 06/09/2010

Update 3, 20/09/2010

Update 4, 03/10/2010

Update 5, 24/10/2010

Update 6, 07/11/2010

Update 7, 14/11/2010

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202010%20weather%20forecast.aspx

[Stuart]

mmmmmmmmmmmmm

Take you pick

30% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-11-14 22:50:00

Next Forecast: 2010-11-20 23:00:00

Synopsis

A reduced risk of snow on the big day on this update. Although still a mix and varied output on the long range charts, recent outputs have tended more towards high or low pressure bing in the wrong place to allow too mild an airflow for cold conditions. Clearly the models are struggling at the moment and the confidence at this range will always be low however to take the recent outputs only, it would seem it will be either quite wet or very dry, with little inbetween. Nonetheless, any wintry conditions seem unlikely away from higher ground currently. Expect this to change for the next update-the models are showing a very wide range of output.

http://www.ukasf.co....dule-christmas/

[Weather-history]

It would be the mildest Christmas for some time if CFS prediction were to come true

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2010/11/13/basis00/euro/tmp2/10122512_1300.gif

Edited November 16, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Thunder Snow]

Omg take it away mr data loool.