Christmas 2010

[Stuart]

40% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-12-01 20:54:00

Next Forecast: 2010-12-04 22:00:00

Synopsis

Little change from the previous forecasts overall with a mix of colder and milder model outputs. The trend lately in the immediate future is for the cold to continue with milder weather being downgraded. Whether this trend continues we dont know but if it does, a cold Christmas day is possible with somewhere likely to recieve something wintry at the least. Its possible that milder weather will move in too, giving rain or showers. This is likely closes to the South and West. The North East will be coldest and at most risk of anything wintry. Higher ground has a good risk at this moment in time. Precipitation will all depend on what sort of pressure we have. Current prediction is for pressure not especially high or especially low so nothing dry or too wet thus a showery set up perhaps, with the greatest precip around coasts.

http://www.ukasf.co....dule-christmas/

And looking at 2days cfs look not to bad

Edited December 2, 2010 by Stuart

[Magadan]

Not Looking so good on the cfs Today

I wouldn't worry. These models are junk beyond a few days, IMHO. Better to go by overall trends and pin your hopes on that than impossible-to-achieve accuracy from models. And from what I've read so far, the trend is looking good for a cold, cold winter.

[Stuart]

45% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-12-04 22:11:00

Next Forecast: 2010-12-07 22:00:00

Synopsis

Were almost within the beginning of the medium range of the forecast models. In about a week or twos time we shall hopefully have an idea of what goodies are showing up for the Big day itself. However longer range output is still throwing up a wide range of solutions however Scotland in particular has often fallen within the ride side of snow parameters. Medium range output currently takes us up to about the 20th December and the current trend is for the cold conditions of recently to continue and many chart updates would suggest this. Recent media has also suggested this. Right now, confidence is building slowly on a fairly cold Christmas day but other details such as precipitation and pressure wont be known until much nearer the time however if it is to be cold, then the most common set up would be possibly showery, especially near coasts in which these could be wintry. It could also be cold but dry across the country. In summary, an upgrade for most of the country as suggestions of a cold outlook become slowly more likely however other details remain very sketchy and will continue to do so for now.

http://www.ukasf.co....dule-christmas/

[A Winter's Tale]

From http://ukweather.wordpress.com/christmas-2010/

Christmas Forecast Issue 3 (04th December Update)

Current indications suggest an increased chance of snowfall this Christmas. Northern Blocking looks likely to take hold from Mid-Month onwards and this suggests bitterly cold air will flood across the United Kingdom. The Northern Blocking looks increasingly likely to last through Christmas and perhaps beyond, bringing very cold temperatures for the Christmas period and some snowfall, particularly across Northern and Eastern Scotland.

North – 65%

West – 35%

East – 65%

South – 35%

[Eabie]

From http://ukweather.wor...christmas-2010/

Christmas Forecast Issue 3 (04th December Update)

Current indications suggest an increased chance of snowfall this Christmas. Northern Blocking looks likely to take hold from Mid-Month onwards and this suggests bitterly cold air will flood across the United Kingdom. The Northern Blocking looks increasingly likely to last through Christmas and perhaps beyond, bringing very cold temperatures for the Christmas period and some snowfall, particularly across Northern and Eastern Scotland.

North – 65%

West – 35%

East – 65%

South – 35%

Good informative site, thank you for the link!

[A Winter's Tale]

So overall, is a white christmas still likely.

[Stuart]

I see paul update white xmas here today and still not looking to bad

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

Just want to add xmas day charts from the CFS

from http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/

[Stuart]

CFS today

from http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/

[Interitus]

Little consistancy there at this range, unsurprisingly.

[Guest]

If this forecast from the Weather Outlook comes to fruition we could well be in for a white Christmas, or at least a slushy one

Forecast for Watford

>> Wed 22 DEC 2010 12:00GMT

Hide details 0°C 10kmh 993mB

0GMT to 12GMT

Temp range: -1°C - -1°C

Wind speed:17km/hr

Wind direction: 22deg

Rain last 3 hours: 1.2mm

Rain rate: 0.07mm/hr

Total cloud cover: 93%

Pressure: 995mB

Humidity: 95% Thickness: 525dam

850hPa: -8°C

Freezing level: 0m

Snow depth: 4cm

Low level cloud: 90%

Mid level cloud: 11%

High cloud cover: 15%

12GMT to 24GMT

Temp range: -2°C - 0°C

Wind speed:10km/hr

Wind direction: 211deg

Rain last 3 hours: 2.4mm

Rain rate: 0.23mm/hr

Total cloud cover: 83%

Pressure: 993mB

Humidity: 98% Thickness: 524dam

850hPa: -8°C

Freezing level: 0m

Snow depth: 6cm

Low level cloud: 80%

Mid level cloud: 63%

High cloud cover: 31%

In the last hour or so they have altered their snow depth from 20 cms to 6 cms

Edited December 7, 2010 by mike Meehan

[Stuart]

60% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-12-07 21:32:00

Next Forecast: 2010-12-10 22:00:00

Synopsis

An upgrade on this update. It is slowly becoming more and more likely that cold conditions will persist into the Christmas period however much will depend on the current projection of a strong block forming. While cold conditions seem be very likely, whether we stay dry or not remains open to question and will be for some time yet. Currently, we think with the likely hood of cold weather, the chance of at least some flakes (remember 1 flake constitutes an Official white Christmas) are very possible. The North and East will definately have the best chance with winds likely to be from the North, North East or East.. Overall we currently expect a cold Christmas day with sunny spells for most but the risk of wintry showers in the East and North, perhaps spreading to Central areas with isolated flurries in Western areas.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/module-christmas/

[A Winter's Tale]

Looking at one chart, it looks like the mild weather will return for christmas

[Radiating Dendrite]

Looking at one chart, it looks like the mild weather will return for christmas

There is just as much chance of us all being beamed up by aliens than a GFS +348 chart verifying.

[Coast]

Snow On Christmas Day - latest odds from Bet365:

Glasgow - Yes: 5/2 No: 2/7

London - Yes: 7/2 No: 1/6

Manchester - Yes: 10/3 No: 1/5

Birmingham - Yes: 3/1 No: 1/5

Aberdeen - Yes: 7/4 No: 2/5

Cardiff - Yes: 4/1 No: 1/7

William Hil have shortened the odds of the lowest temperature ever recorded in England (-26.1C) being beaten this winter, from 18/1 to 16/1 after the weekend cold snap encouraged a flurry of bets to be placed. With just over a month to go, Hills have already taken six four-figure bets on the chances of a White Christmas, and are facing a payout of over £100,000. Snow in London on December 25 has been cut from 6/1 to 9/2, with snow in Aberdeen and Glasgow offered at 4/1 and Cardiff best priced at 6/1.

"Along with the temperature, punters are plunging on our weather related bets. If this winter is as cold as predicted it could easily be our worst weather result ever, eclipsing even our current meteorological record payout, when temperatures hit 100 degrees in 2003 costing us a six figure sum", said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams. White Christmas betting Rules: 'That one flake of snow will fall on Met office monitoring stations over the 24 hr period of the 25th of December'.

William Hill White Christmas Betting: 4/1 Aberdeen, 4/1 Glasgow, 9/2 London, 6/1 Cardiff.

16/1 that the lowest recorded temperature in England will be beaten (-26.1C, Jan 10 1982, Shropshire). 16/1 that the lowest temperature in Scotland will be beaten (-27.2C, Jan 10th 1982, Aberdeenshire). 22/1 for the record in Wales to be beaten (-23.3C, 21st Jan, 1940 Powys). 100/1 that the Thames will freeze over between Westminster Bridge and Tower Bridge.

100/1 Big Ben Fails to chime due to being frozen solid.

http://www.mybetting.co.uk/white-christmas-betting.htm

Please bet (and ramp) responsibly

[AderynCoch]

I'm not sure why the Thames freezing over in Central London has the same odds as Big Ben's chimer freezing. The latter is more likely, as evidenced by the fact it happened in January 1987 without the former taking place. In fact, is it even possible to freeze the Thames in London anymore?

[Nick B]

I'm not sure why the Thames freezing over in Central London has the same odds as Big Ben's chimer freezing. The latter is more likely, as evidenced by the fact it happened in January 1987 without the former taking place. In fact, is it even possible to freeze the Thames in London anymore?

Virtually impossible... since the old London Bridge was removed and the river became much more free-flowing. I suppose you could get a layer of ice at the edges, but would you want to walk on it knowing what's underneath?!

[rich1]

Looking at one chart, it looks like the mild weather will return for christmas

'

These types of things never cease to get on my nerves...I have a low tolerance for general ignorance personally, and the only thing that competes with this type of thing is those asking repeatedly 'will it snow in Eastern Ireland' again and again and again . Suffice it is to say that that chart is firstly over 2 weeks away and secondly it is an outlying run on the ensemble charts at the end, thirdly its only one chart out of a number of different model runs, fourthly the Met o update is pretty set on it remaining cold up to the new year and maybe beyond, and fifthly the progged 'breakdown' which pops up now and then recently seems to be something that is getting shoved back each day

it could happen but I feel this year we have a better than average shout of a white Christmas in a number of places looking at the evolving chart patterns

Edited December 8, 2010 by rich1

[Eugene]

These types of things never cease to get on my nerves...I have a low tolerance for general ignorance personally, and the only thing that competes with this type of thing is those asking repeatedly 'will it snow in Eastern Ireland' again and again and again . Suffice it is to say that that chart is firstly over 2 weeks away and secondly it is an outlying run on the ensemble charts at the end, thirdly its only one chart out of a number of different model runs, fourthly the Met o update is pretty set on it remaining cold up to the new year and maybe beyond, and fifthly the progged 'breakdown' which pops up now and then recently seems to be something that is getting shoved back each day

it could happen but I feel this year we have a better than average shout of a white Christmas in a number of places looking at the evolving chart patterns

Yes the cold will be here for a long time with only short breaks from it with less cold weather, very dry too with above average sunshine.

[Stuart]

Forecast headline

Our ninth Christmas 2010 forecast update suggests an increased chance of snow falling on Christmas day across Britain. Chances overall are now notably higher than average, and we think there is a good chance of cold weather persisting for much of the second half of December.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 40% - 50% (risk increases to 50% further east)

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 30% - 40% (risk increases to 40% further east)

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2010

Update 2, 06/09/2010

Update 3, 20/09/2010

Update 4, 03/10/2010

Update 5, 24/10/2010

Update 6, 07/11/2010

Update 7, 14/11/2010

Update 8, 28/11/2010

Update 9, 08/12/2010

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202010%20weather%20forecast.aspx

[Stuart]

I see it could be a green xmas for most of us but it a milder Outer

Edited December 10, 2010 by Stuart

[Paul]

Christmas forecast updated

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

Yep still look ok for snow on xmas day for some areas

[Guest]

Snow On Christmas Day - latest odds from Bet365:

Glasgow - Yes: 5/2 No: 2/7

London - Yes: 7/2 No: 1/6

Manchester - Yes: 10/3 No: 1/5

Birmingham - Yes: 3/1 No: 1/5

Aberdeen - Yes: 7/4 No: 2/5

Cardiff - Yes: 4/1 No: 1/7

http://www.mybetting.co.uk/white-christmas-betting.htm

Please bet (and ramp) responsibly

I'm not sure why the Thames freezing over in Central London has the same odds as Big Ben's chimer freezing. The latter is more likely, as evidenced by the fact it happened in January 1987 without the former taking place. In fact, is it even possible to freeze the Thames in London anymore?

Quite a few stretches were frozen in the winter of 62/63, especially higher upstream

Edited December 10, 2010 by mike Meehan

[Stuart]

:drinks: 65% Chance of a white Christmas :drinks:

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-12-10 21:11:00

Next Forecast: 2010-12-12 22:00:00

Synopsis

Another upgrade on this update as confidence continues to rise in the potential for a cold Christmas day as it comes into the medium range at 2 weeks away. While charts will continue to change were looking at another Northern blocking set up with the potential for some very significant cold and a fairly high risk of snow with the given set up described. Winds from the North or North East or East seem very likely thus as for some time, were expecting a showery set up with coasts seeing the most precipitation and a good chance of this being snow. The winds could be strong, blowing showers/organised troughs of showers well inland. The potential for a very cold day. Perhaps some Milder weather trying to nudge in to the far South West

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/module-christmas/