Christmas 2010

[Thunder Snow]

I doubt Southern areas have a high chance of a white xmas, and i think in my personal opinion that the North's chancs seem to be fading.

[Stuart]

60% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-12-14 23:09:00

Next Forecast: 2010-12-16 22:00:00

Synopsis

No massive changes on this update, however a slight upgrade perhaps. Models have had big struggles with regard to the upcoming cold blast beginning on Thursday. As we hinted on our last update (Sunday), the charts have showed signs of perhaps pushing the Milder Weather back. Right now any break down could happen very close to or even on the big day it self. It the current trend prevails, it could be extended to be past the big day keeping cold perhaps very cold conditions with a risk of snow for many. Any cold weather is likely to be from the North or North East/East by the big day. The greatest risk of snow will always be in the far North/North East for the time being. In summary, very low confidence at this time because the Models continue to throw out a wide range of options. There are tentative signs of any milder air breakdown being pushed back. Eventually this could be beyond the big day. Highest risk of Snow in the North East.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/module-christmas/

[damianslaw]

Won't be until Sunday at the earliest we can begin to have some confidence in the likely trends for christmas day - so with 5 days still to go until this date any speculation beforehand is rather fruitless I say.

One thing to note is those heights to the NW look very strong early next week and I doubt the breakdown would come from the SW, more likely by shortwave development over Iceland, I can see the cold holding out through the christmas period - very similiar to last year when we saw slight warming on boxing day.

[AderynCoch]

I think Positive Weather Solutions are insane for saying a White Christmas is certain. I bet it won't happen and instead everywhere in the UK has a green christmas, gale force winds, pouring with rain and 8c temperatures.

So either there'll be a White Christmas or PWS will be left with egg on their faces - a win-win situation!

[Richard McCarthy]

Happy Christmas White Christmas Coming True On Thusday/Night Possibly Friday/Night Is Well.

[Cymro]

60% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-12-14 23:09:00

Next Forecast: 2010-12-16 22:00:00

Synopsis

No massive changes on this update, however a slight upgrade perhaps. Models have had big struggles with regard to the upcoming cold blast beginning on Thursday. As we hinted on our last update (Sunday), the charts have showed signs of perhaps pushing the Milder Weather back. Right now any break down could happen very close to or even on the big day it self. It the current trend prevails, it could be extended to be past the big day keeping cold perhaps very cold conditions with a risk of snow for many. Any cold weather is likely to be from the North or North East/East by the big day. The greatest risk of snow will always be in the far North/North East for the time being. In summary, very low confidence at this time because the Models continue to throw out a wide range of options. There are tentative signs of any milder air breakdown being pushed back. Eventually this could be beyond the big day. Highest risk of Snow in the North East.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/module-christmas/

Since When has Anglesea (Sir Fôn) Left the UK? Snubbed here ?

[Costa Del Fal]

Since When has Anglesea (Sir Fôn) Left the UK? Snubbed here ?

I dont think its been left out purposely. :lol: Just a mistake im sure.

Anyway, there has been excellent agreement in snow risks for the big day on UKASF and Netweather. Good to see.

[Paul]

Latest Xmas forecast online

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Great Plum]

Sitting on the fence for that one huh Paul?

[Stuart]

60% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-12-17 21:26:00

Next Forecast: 2010-12-18 22:00:00

Synopsis

Considerable uncertainty at the moment for Christmas Day however some signs that as previously mentioned, the cold could be extended beyond Christmas Day from the cold blast we currently have. Some model runs still want to push milder weather in but confidence on a cold day is slowly increasing. Currently, models suggest pressure rising across Scandinavia, possibly bringing Easterly winds which could bring some showers, possibly wintry. A battle ground could set up between the Atlantic and the Cold air too. Many solutions are being pumped out right now that it is anyones call. In summary while we expect a cold Christmas day, currently we expect it to be mostly dry inalnd with snny spells and local mist/fog patches with the risk of wintry showers near coasts, perhaps blowing inland at times.:smiliz19:

http://www.ukasf.co....dule-christmas/

[Paul]

A bit late tonight (it's been a long, busy day!), but today's update for the xmas forecast is now online:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

60% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2010-12-18 20:52:00

Next Forecast: 2010-12-19 22:00:00

Synopsis

No change to yesterdays forecast at the moment with the considerable uncertainty continuing. There seems a reasonable chance that Christmas Day may be mostly dry but cold however a potential battleground scenario cant be ruled out especially in the West as the models play about with cold extension and mild incursions. It would seem that we need to wait a few more days before any proper idea of the outcome of Christmas Day. Please note the forecast is based on snow actually falling on the day. In summary, a possibly dry day for most but rather chilly with the risk of a battleground scenario, especially in the West.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/module-christmas/

[Paul]

Latest forecast now online:

http://web1.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Thunder Snow]

Does anyone know if the xmas forecast gets updated today?

[damianslaw]

Christmas Day 2010 is looking like a carbon copy of Christmas Day 2009, i.e. many places will have a dry sunny bitter day with snow cover on the ground but no flakes falling from the sky - the bookmakers will be rubbing their hands with glee given the current synoptical output which is suggesting strong heights slap bang over the country killing any shower activity. At this range the only city with a possible chance of a rogue shower would be Aberdeen.

It will be the third dry sunny cold christmas day in a row if things verify as currently suggested. Many other cold decembers saw many christmas days with no snow falling but plenty on the ground i.e. 1981, 1995 and 1996.

[Zerouali lives]

So can we now say with some confidence that some major cities WON'T have a white Christmas?

I'm thinking about putting on a considerable bet for some places NOT to have a white Christmas as the bookies are giving decent odds as they are still caught up in all the hype.

Here are the odds FOR a white Chrismas - odds for no white Christmas will still be quite similar

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/1463417/Snow-On-Christmas-Day.html

[Stuart]

well there was some snow on some places on xmas day

so can we put this to bed tell next year

Looking forword to next set