Major Hurricane Igor

[mezzacyclone]

(Seems my 4 month internet loss ended at very interesting time,,,)

Latest Adv. 13 details sustained 70mph winds with minimum central pressure @995mb.

We`ll see if the forecast "steady strengthening" occurs over the soon-to-enter waters >28'C.

Interesting if the NASA TRMM satellite data proves good grounding and IF this goes against all but 1 in history that formed so far east goes monster size?

Track forecast paths may be very comforting for quite a few folk!

[Iceberg]

Shear although it's lessening is still taking it's toll simply because it's allowing the dry air to get mixed in, should only be temp until we get some diurnal strenghtening and shear goes down even more.Models are more ageeing that Igor might make it our way as a ex-tropical but it is along way off yet.

[Iceberg]

latest pic

[AderynCoch]

Still at 70mph and 995mb as per the 11am AST update. Big expansion in the wind field though - tropical storm force winds extending up to 115 miles from the centre compared to 60 miles in the last advisory.

[Iceberg]

Igor looking very much the Hurricane now and a strengthening one as well.

There is still a bit of NW shear which is limiting outflow a little, but not enought to stop the eye from forming near the middle of the CDO, currently looking quite cat 2ish.

Edited September 12, 2010 by Iceberg

[londonsnow]

very busy season. igor strengthens to 80 mph sustained winds, cat 1 hurricane with the liklihood of cat 3 in the future. meanwhile potential julia and karl named systems on opposite sides of the atlantic wait in the wings. lots going on

[Katherine]

Igor's up to 80 MPH speed. Change of thread title needed?

[Paranoid]

Looking excellent at the moment, although convection does seem to be lacking further from the centre.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys

[Paranoid]

Now up to a Cat 2 with 105mph winds (close to Cat 3 infact). NHC forecast Igor to reach Cat 4 with a peak of at least 145mph.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 121455

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010

1100 AM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...IGOR BECOMES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.7N 45.7W

ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR

...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND

IGOR COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140

MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[The PIT]

So the fish spinner has finally really got going. What are the chances of a cat5 out of this ???

[Cal]

So the fish spinner has finally really got going. What are the chances of a cat5 out of this ???

Over on Eastern US they are saying every chance of a Cat 4 possibly a Cat 5, deepening very rapidly and it has even warmer water to travel over , could well be a monster this one!

[Paranoid]

Forecast to be a Fish and remain a fairly safe distance from land, although given the fact that any potential landfall is out in FI at the moment and how strong Igor has the potential to be, it should be watched very closely.

[Chris D]

Take a look at the eye on this thing! And it's still strengthening . Looking forward to seeing the next advisory on it...

Edited September 12, 2010 by chris93

[Paranoid]

Igor has rapidly strengthened to a Cat 4, according a special advisory. Judging from the sat pics it's hardly surprising. Thread title change definately required

000

WTNT31 KNHC 121806

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010

230 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...IGOR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.7N 46.1W

ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160

MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

Edited September 12, 2010 by Paranoid

[mezzacyclone]

Seems NOAA`s early August La Nina strengthening forecast has finally brought the area to a boil?

Bermudians will be most worried that ALL the paths are showing a B-Line for them?

all eyes on the upcoming BST 2100hrs advisory.

Back after the Panthers & Giants game folks

[Cal]

Seems NOAA`s early August La Nina strengthening forecast has finally brought the area to a boil?

Bermudians will be most worried that ALL the paths are showing a B-Line for them?

all eyes on the upcoming BST 2100hrs advisory.

Back after the Panthers & Giants game folks

Yup Bermuda looks like it's going to get hammered .

----- Current Analysis -----

Date : 12 SEP 2010 Time : 174500 UTC

Lat : 17:40:09 N Lon : 46:03:00 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

6.3 / 942.2mb/122.2kt

[Cookie]

amazing hurricane

[Katherine]

In Emoticons re: Igor as I am rather lost for words...

[mountain shadow]

Any updates on shear and possible dry air intrusions before Bermuda?

[Paranoid]

I don't think conditions are set to deteriate any time in the next 5 days. NHC has Igor remaining at 145mph at least for that peroid. I expect some eyewall replacements in that time so that could weaken Igor a bit. Igor's structure also looks annular, very little rainbands and a well defined circular shape.

[Paranoid]

Forecast peak continues to rise, has gone from 135mph earlier this morning and now currently at 155mph. Could go onto to be the most intense storm of the season. Igor currently has winds of 140mph and pressure is down to 942mbar.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 122037

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 19

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010

500 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...LARGE AND POWERFUL IGOR MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL

ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.7N 46.9W

ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.9 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160

MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[mezzacyclone]

Patchy eye but most impressive structure otherwise?

Welcoming any views from the usual HW residents on any possibilities of less northerly turn retrospectoive to all of the models so far?

[Paranoid]

It might just be the position of the sun that makes the eye look a bit ragged, it's sunset at the time this picture was taken. There's a fair amount of dry air to the west of Igor (and the western edge looks a little exposed, less convection there than on the east) but i think Igor has a good enough structure to make it through without any major effects.

[Cookie]

the eye looks good here to me