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Winter 2010/2011


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Posted
  • Location: Hunslet, Leeds, LS10
  • Location: Hunslet, Leeds, LS10

Hi Richard,

I noticed that you was following weathergeek on the Daily Mail forums. That guy is amazing!! I really believe that he is onto something... yet no one will listen to him! :cc_confused:

He has got a lot of facts that back him up and also many of the other forums weathermonkey etc also say similar things.

Its the metoffice that has ruined peoples beliefs in weather men!

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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

He has got a lot of facts that back him up and also many of the other forums weathermonkey etc also say similar things.

Its the metoffice that has ruined peoples beliefs in weather men!

He certainly has. I've read his blog in detail, and he's absolutely spot on! His predictions for winter 2009/10 brought a satisfied smile to my face :cc_confused:

The poor fella has been barracked by the GWS (Global Warming Squad), to the point that he's almost give up providing any more information, instead preferring to let time answer his (sometimes vicious) critics!

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Posted
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snow. Summer: Hot and Dry
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.

Anyone come across this yet:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

& http://www.theweathe...20forecast.aspx

"Cold on track

The chart shows the latest min temperatures forecast for Sunday 19th September by the GFS medium range forecasting model. That's showing VERY cold weather for the time of year with a ground frost across much of the country, and an airfrost (when the air temp falls below 0C) as far south as South Wales. A lot will depend on things such as cloud cover and wind speed which hold the temp up, as well as local factors, but next weekend may bring the coldest September night we've seen for some time. Before then we'll see a keen north westerly flow developing over Britain during the second half of the coming week, and the level to which snow falls could be as low 2500 feet in England with the higher parts of the Pennines seeing a few flakes. In Scotland it may fall lower, and remember to keep an eye on those Cairngorm web cams. On TheWeatherOutlook we'll be issuing our updated 14 day forecast in the next few hours. "

Wouldn't surprise me here, we've already had 3 ground frosts and Im pretty far south. I know I have some elavation but still very early for how south I'am and Im only 10miles from the coast.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

Fair enougth though the ONI is flawed in that id does not take into account temperatures in region 1.2 and thus the atmosphere may think that it is in a weak La Nina even if it is not a declared event.

If we look at the MEI serious (takes into account many more factors and is a much truer representation, years which saw strong La Nina values during winter were..

1976

1974

1971

1956

Those winters saw the following median values..

Dec - 4.9C, 0.2C below average

Jan - 4.7C, 0.5C above average

Feb - 2.6C, 1.6C below average

December and February tend to follow the usual La Nina pattern of a cool December and cold Febuary, though January is milder than average.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd//people/klaus.wolter/MEI/table.html

Yep but Feb 1956 was -0.2c - http://www.newtownweather.co.uk/cetdata/cetdata.html - so that really distorts the general Feb figure given the small data size.

Feb

1976 -> 4.5

1974 -> 5.4

1971 -> 4.1

I'm just not sure we can draw any conclusions from the limited data that's around for strong La Ninas.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Yep but Feb 1956 was -0.2c - http://www.newtownweather.co.uk/cetdata/cetdata.html - so that really distorts the general Feb figure given the small data size.

Feb

1976 -> 4.5

1974 -> 5.4

1971 -> 4.1

I'm just not sure we can draw any conclusions from the limited data that's around for strong La Ninas.

Agreed, though there is a good chance we may have weakened to moderate by winter, current anologues suggest an Autumn peak.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Is loving the fact that the 0.c isotherm is down to 0m on this run, of course it wouldn't snow but shows winter is very much on it's way, possibly earlier than recent years. 

post-8968-036940900 1284333716_thumb.png

In-fact the whole of Europe is warmer than UK on this run for night time temperatures. For those of us who can't wait for winter we are getting very good early winter synoptics for this time of year, hopefully this will prevail till late October,we could even see a repeat performance of the snow in London if the pattern doesn't budge. 

post-8968-014764300 1284333858_thumb.png

Edited by 10123
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

I would advise anyone hoping for a cold winter not to look at the long range CFS maps on NW :drinks:

Heres January's..

post-6181-023012100 1284297419_thumb.png

Oh dear, thank God January is still four months away! If that chart came off, we would have a January similar to 2007.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Oh dear, thank God January is still four months away! If that chart came off, we would have a January similar to 2007.

I maybe reading the chart wrong but I would have thought if it was similiar to Jan 2007, the lower pressure anomalies would be over the north Atlantic and not over the Azores region. That doesn't look a zonal chart to me. Remember they are not isobars but lines of equal anomalies and that indicates higher pressures for a lot of Europe and the north Atlantic. Suggests also not a strong Azores high.

Edited by Mr_Data
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

quite right Mr D and, I may be upsetting some folk, but those charts change almost as often as FI does on the routine GFS output.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

Agreed, though there is a good chance we may have weakened to moderate by winter, current anologues suggest an Autumn peak.

Yes agreed - La Nina should be mature or weakening slightly during the winter period. For what it's worth at this stage, I'm leaning towards another cold winter for Europe - especially with the recent ramp up in tropical activity which is preventing too much of a warm up of SSTs around the Grand Banks at least for the moment (my concern is that the typical US SE ridge from La Nina leads to a big warm up there which would favour a positive NAO - I believe this happened to some degree in Autumn 2007 - hopefully with better tropical activity this year we won't see that).

:lol:

Edited by beng
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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Yes agreed - La Nina should be mature or weakening slightly during the winter period. For what it's worth at this stage, I'm leaning towards another cold winter for Europe - especially with the recent ramp up in tropical activity which is preventing too much of a warm up of SSTs around the Grand Banks at least for the moment (my concern is that the typical US SE ridge from La Nina leads to a big warm up there which would favour a positive NAO - I believe this happened to some degree in Autumn 2007 - hopefully with better tropical activity this year we won't see that).

:lol:

With the latest sub-surface temperature anomalies ( -6c now showing ) there is a very real

chance that this Nina will continue to strengthen into the winter I think.

Dep_Sec_EQ_5d.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I mentioned something similar in the Winter 2010/11 poll thread, but judging by what I've seen of the teleconnections and analogues, the odds are favouring frequent northerlies in November & December and then frequent westerlies and north-westerlies in January & February.

Coldest/snowiest case scenarios are probably a lesser version of 1950/51 (freeze-up in December, cool zonal polar maritime weather in January & February) or something similar to 2008/09 which had that major stratospheric warming event in early February.

Mildest case scenario: probably something like 2001/02. I remember that the northerlies started up very early in that season, and although November 2001 was milder than average overall, it had an unusually potent northerly on the 8th/9th November. But after a decidedly wintry end to December, westerlies and south-westerlies then blew almost without a break until the last week of March. One factor perhaps pointing away from a repeat of 2001/02 is that 1950/51 and 2008/09 were both La Nina winters, while 2001/02 saw ENSO move towards a weak El Nino state.

To sum up, I am envisaging another relatively cold snowy winter by recent standards, but much less so than last winter, and probably near to longer-term averages. Still, it is all educated guesswork this far out, and teleconnections and analogues, though they have done very well recently, are not foolproof as there are so many different variables that can switch the atmosphere into a different state if even one of them pans out a bit differently to expected.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

With the latest sub-surface temperature anomalies ( -6c now showing ) there is a very real

chance that this Nina will continue to strengthen into the winter I think.

Dep_Sec_EQ_5d.gif

Yes it's possible - at this stage there is the potential for this to be a 'super nina' - if you like the reverse of the 98/83 El Ninos. It's quite possible this event could be one of the most intense la ninas in the last 100 years.

Edited by beng
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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

It's quite possible this event could be one of the most intense la ninas in the last 100 years.

If this is a once in a century La Nina event, its quite possible that nobody will really be able to come up with a long range forecast for whats going to happen during winter 10-11, particularly in light of the very unique combination of the warm AMO, cold PDO and low solar activity?

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

I think we can get a pretty good fix on this winter given the likely denomination of:

(1) A very strong Nina signal;

(2) A very strong -PDO signal;

(3) A very strongly negative atmospheric base state (low angular momentum);

(4) Tropical forcing centred in the Indo-Pacific region.

My view would be we cannot escape the basic wavelength pattern that this is going to bring about. The widlcards here are:

(5) Is the Atlantic showing us a strongly positive NAO ? (I would suggest not on the basis of the last 8 months and more generally the last 3 years);

(6) Stratospheric profile going into the late Autumn.

These are big blocking signals, although the blocking structures are likely to be in different positions to last year and probably more mid latitudinal given the likely state of the NAO and polar stratoshpere.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

I mentioned something similar in the Winter 2010/11 poll thread, but judging by what I've seen of the teleconnections and analogues, the odds are favouring frequent northerlies in November & December and then frequent westerlies and north-westerlies in January & February.

Would you consider the current state of the artic as a factor in increasing Northerlies in the first part of the winter (or at least Oct/Nov), with the absence of proper cold pooling over the artic ?

Or is that a red herring ?

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

As GP says positive signs for this up and coming which I will take into account when I issue my winter weather forecast on October 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Would you consider the current state of the artic as a factor in increasing Northerlies in the first part of the winter (or at least Oct/Nov), with the absence of proper cold pooling over the artic ?

Or is that a red herring ?

I don't think it will make a large difference. There is some evidence that the state of the Arctic does impact upon atmospheric circulation, but this area of research is very much in its infancy, so I don't feel in a position to speculate on what these changes will be.

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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

Do any of our teleconnections experts have an opinion about this IOD model, which seems to be predicting the AMO to go cold through winter and spring for the first time in years;

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/ (click the seasonal prediction link on the sidebar)

Been a long, long time since we had such cold waters in the north Atlantic as this is predicting?

Edited by Gavin P
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Do any of our teleconnections experts have an opinion about this IOD model, which seems to be predicting the AMO to go cold through winter and spring for the first time in years;

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/ (click the seasonal prediction link on the sidebar)

Been a long, long time since we had such cold waters in the north Atlantic as this is predicting?

That model certainly makes some interesting froecasts. Mild Autumn for us, cold winter and La Nina until Summer 2012!?

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

I think we can get a pretty good fix on this winter given the likely denomination of:

(1) A very strong Nina signal;

(2) A very strong -PDO signal;

(3) A very strongly negative atmospheric base state (low angular momentum);

(4) Tropical forcing centred in the Indo-Pacific region.

My view would be we cannot escape the basic wavelength pattern that this is going to bring about. The widlcards here are:

(5) Is the Atlantic showing us a strongly positive NAO ? (I would suggest not on the basis of the last 8 months and more generally the last 3 years);

(6) Stratospheric profile going into the late Autumn.

These are big blocking signals, although the blocking structures are likely to be in different positions to last year and probably more mid latitudinal given the likely state of the NAO and polar stratoshpere.

a very strong negative nao again. last years was the strongest on record, could it be beaten again this year?

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

I think we can get a pretty good fix on this winter given the likely denomination of:

(1) A very strong Nina signal;

(2) A very strong -PDO signal;

(3) A very strongly negative atmospheric base state (low angular momentum);

(4) Tropical forcing centred in the Indo-Pacific region.

My view would be we cannot escape the basic wavelength pattern that this is going to bring about. The widlcards here are:

(5) Is the Atlantic showing us a strongly positive NAO ? (I would suggest not on the basis of the last 8 months and more generally the last 3 years);

(6) Stratospheric profile going into the late Autumn.

These are big blocking signals, although the blocking structures are likely to be in different positions to last year and probably more mid latitudinal given the likely state of the NAO and polar stratoshpere.

Very low solar activity will also play its part hence as you say the likely hood for more blocking structures and persistent

weather patterns.

My concerns are with a very cold polar stratosphere keeping any blocking to mid latitudes and if a big SE ridge (heat ridge )

develops things could turn very ugly for cold weather fans. Again as you say the stratospheric profile will be very important

as we go through the Autumn into winter with the equatorial profile being just as important ( strength of the +QBO).

Big wild cards for me are...

1) where will the two main vortices set up shop.

2) SSW events either by rosby wave (planetary wave ) breaking or geoeffective solar flares (CME's) what with cycle 24 trying to show itself.

All said and done I still believe we will see some pretty significant winter weather across the UK and IF the SE ridge remains more suppressed or state side and a block builds in a favourable position then a big winter could be possible.

I am quite confident of at least one Scandinavian block forming this winter and with it a real taste of continental Arctic air.

Edited by cooling climate
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