Winter 2010/2011

[snowlover2009]

Very low solar activity will also play its part hence as you say the likely hood for more blocking structures and persistent

weather patterns.

My concerns are with a very cold polar stratosphere keeping any blocking to mid latitudes and if a big SE ridge (heat ridge )

develops things could turn very ugly for cold weather fans. Again as you say the stratospheric profile will be very important

as we go through the Autumn into winter with the equatorial profile being just as important ( strength of the +QBO).

Big wild cards for me are...

1) where will the two main vortices set up shop.

2) SSW events either by rosby wave (planetary wave ) breaking or geoeffective solar flares (CME's) what with cycle 24 trying to show itself.

All said and done I still believe we will see some pretty significant winter weather across the UK and IF the SE ridge remains more suppressed or state side and a block builds in a favourable position then a big winter could be possible.

I am quite confident of at least one Scandinavian block forming this winter and with it a real taste of continental Arctic air.

while there is some things that may have little concern, i really do agree that there will be some decent cold and snowy spell, particularly for the end of autumn and the start of winter. a seasonal december i think looks likely at least, like last year, however i think it could potentially be better this year if the cold sets up early, as the cold only set in around mid december last year. hopefully the atlantic wont be as dead, which could be good for big nationwide snow events and drifitng. like you said, there is one or two concerns, but it was like that last year before we had the cold winter. this year we have different advantages to last year, like for instance, northern blocking already continuing and southern tracking jet. there really is a lot in it for some pretty decent cold. a very memorable spell of weather is almost very likely at least in winter.

[summer blizzard]

With the latest sub-surface temperature anomalies ( -6c now showing ) there is a very real

chance that this Nina will continue to strengthen into the winter I think.

I'm personally going for an Autumn peak, while spectacular i cannot see a full 9 months of strengthening. Strength ajusted, the two closest anologues (1954 and 1964) both indicate a weakening moderate La Nina. Also supporting the anologues, i think an October peak is likely.

[Kentish Kiwi]

I'm personally going for an Autumn peak, while spectacular i cannot see a full 9 months of strengthening. Strength ajusted, the two closest anologues (1954 and 1964) both indicate a weakening moderate La Nina. Also supporting the anologues, i think an October peak is likely.

What repercussions may the timing of the peak have on our winter based on analogues SB?

[summer blizzard]

What repercussions may the timing of the peak have on our winter based on analogues SB?

Statistically, it favours a cool Deceber and cold February, with any milder period likely to be in January.

[ZONE 51]

All very exciting!

[cooling climate]

If the 06z GFS synoptic evoution between T180 and T300 does not wet the appetite for winter

then I don't know what will.

I just hope these sort of synoptics repeat in the next 3 to 6 month period.

[Thundery wintry showers]

One possible "fly in the ointment": high SSTs in the wrong places.

This shows high positive SST anomalies around Greenland and Iceland. Historically, they have tended to result in increased cyclogenesis around those areas (encouraging the development of a large polar vortex in that region) and also take the sting out of any cold airmasses that come our way from the west or north-west.

Still plenty of time for those anomalies to "calm down" though.

[blitzen]

One possible "fly in the ointment": high SSTs in the wrong places.

This shows high positive SST anomalies around Greenland and Iceland. Historically, they have tended to result in increased cyclogenesis around those areas (encouraging the development of a large polar vortex in that region) and also take the sting out of any cold airmasses that come our way from the west or north-west.

Still plenty of time for those anomalies to "calm down" though.

Any chance of the La Nina reducing these once it transfers to the northern hemisphere TWS?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I doubt it- La Nina concerns the SSTs in the Pacific and has little bearing on the SSTs in the Northern Hemisphere mid latitudes- it will probably lower global temperatures by up to a few tenths of a degree from the El Nino state but those SST anomalies are approaching 4 degC in places.

Synoptics will be the main deciding factor in how those SSTs behave- some good Iceland/Greenland cold pooling into October and November would help to bring them much closer to average. However, if we get a recurring mid-Atlantic block (as is supported by the teleconnections) there is a chance of this sending warm Atlantic airmasses up into that region and keeping the SST anomalies high.

[blitzen]

Apparently we are being made aware of a 2 mile deep, 1100kms long, active volcanic ridge beneath the Arctic and one wonders if this could indeed be raising the water temperature up there. Certainly sounds plausible.

However, if we get a recurring mid-Atlantic block (as is supported by the teleconnections) there is a chance of this sending warm Atlantic airmasses up into that region and keeping the SST anomalies high.

Edited September 14, 2010 by Blitzen

[Thundery wintry showers]

It does indeed direct colder synoptics towards us, but quite often, we end up with northerlies over western Europe and southerlies up the western side of Greenland (hence warm air advection) and this maintains positive temperature anomalies over the western half of the area currently covered by warm SSTs:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100105.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00220100105.gif

...although it will most likely cool off in the east of the area, towards Iceland.

In addition we also have to consider what happens on the occasions that we get a mid-Atlantic block and no link with a block over Greenland. In that case warm airmasses pass over the top of the block and the whole of that area experiences positive anomalies:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00220050201.gif

[cooling climate]

Any chance of the La Nina reducing these once it transfers to the northern hemisphere TWS?

The sst profile in the north Atlantic will change substantially as we move through the Autumn.

A warmer anomaly around Greenland and Iceland with colder water further south and then a

warmer anomaly again south of the Azores would be the ideal tripole for a - NAO,so the theory goes.

[BucksSnow]

has anyone seen the winter discussion with the weathergeek predicting worst winter than last year and he has evidence to back it up if so what do you guys think off it and also there is a document on there stating polish weather experts says europe could have the worst winter in a millenuinm

[johncoolj]

has anyone seen the winter discussion with the weathergeek predicting worst winter than last year and he has evidence to back it up if so what do you guys think off it and also there is a document on there stating polish weather experts says europe could have the worst winter in a millenuinm

hey where is that can u post the link so i can view intrested in weather geek he seems to be good also polish weather experts where the discussion

[Alex95]

This year's SSTs are almost like an aplified version of last year's SSTs! But the closest analogues in terms of SSTs in Autumn seem to be 2003 (winter 2003-2004) and 2004 (winter 2004-2005). Both years had warmer SSTs around Greenland, and cooler SSTs further south in the Atlantic. Both years were around average for snow in the NE, but below average in many other areas.

The SST archive is here for whoever wants it, I hope I'm allowed to post this link!

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/

[BucksSnow]

http://2012realorfiction.blogspot.com/

This is the polish weather experts

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/newsdebate/r/t-10137958/index.html

Daily mail debate

from reading that we could be in for something special

[weathe20]

http://2012realorfiction.blogspot.com/

This is the polish weather experts

http://www.dailymail...7958/index.html

Daily mail debate

from reading that we could be in for something special

My word, there are some massive statements being made in that first link! Snow by the end of September?? Well yes on the Scotish Mountins!

And a lot of talk of the jet stream then the gulf stream, confusing.

And my last point on the first link..who wrote it? This article is badly worded throughout.

[johncoolj]

http://2012realorfiction.blogspot.com/

This is the polish weather experts

http://www.dailymail...7958/index.html

Daily mail debate

from reading that we could be in for something special

hey you may be intrested in this if you have not seen click the link its the 2nd article

winter forcast 2010-11

shows uk etc will have a cold winter with lots of snow

http://icecap.us/ind...go/new-and-cool

Sep 09, 2010 First Look at December to March Global Patterns By Joseph D’Aleo

Last winter despite a strong El Nino was very cold (all-time coldest in some areas) in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere. A strong La Nina has come on during the summer, a very hot one (all-time in some of the very same areas where the winter was very cold). Other areas had record cool summer. The anomalies were not so much a case of extremes just persistence of the same pattern due to a stuck jet stream configuration.

Persistence is a characteristic of low solar years. The last several years have seen a lot of persistence within seasons. Strong El Ninos and La Ninas also tend to exhibit higher persistence.

What about this winter? Well with a strong La Nina, cold PDO, warm Atlantic (AMO), QBO transitioning to westerly and a still low solar suggests the following.

The 500mb geopotential height anomalies for the globe for December/January:

Enlarged here.

The surface temperature anomalies globally for December/January:

Enlarged here.

The 500 mb geopotential height anomaly for February/March:

Enlarged here.

The surface temperature anomaly for February/March:

Enlarged here.

The winter (December/January and then February/March) for the United States:

Enlarged here.

For the US, this implies another cold winter for the upper Midwest, probably again heavy snows for the northwest, Rockies, Northern Plains, Midwest and northern New York and New England with ice storm threat(s) further south.

The same for Europe and western Asia:

Enlarged here.

This should mean more snow and cold for Great Britain and eventually much of Europe where they are getting used to weather more like the Dalton Minimum with snowy winters and long cold spells.

The winter should start out cold in central and eastern United States, Western Europe and China. A cool summer start seems in the cards for South America. The late winter looks very cold in Europe and western Asia, while the cold retreats west in the United States. Blocking in the Arctic/North Atlantic, last year at a 60 year record level, appears to be again a major factor.

If you ask does this approach work, see how it worked last year when in the fall we predicted this pattern (height anomalies which correspond to surface temperature anomalies) for the winter at 500mb (enlarged here):

This is what the 500mb anomalies actually looked like (enlarged here):

More to come. PDF

See Joe laminate floori’s take on it here. Joe nailed last winters heavy snow and cold in the south up to the Mid-Atlantic.

Edited September 14, 2010 by johncoolj

[cyclonic happiness]

good video on you tube too about what is expected to happen.

[Cymro]

The video is definitely plausible and well thought however the whole warning and little ice age OTTness ruined it a little for me.

[bobbydog]

what does anyone think of the met office view?, considering everyone else is predicting a cold snap for this period!

UK Outlook for Wednesday 29 Sep 2010 to Wednesday 13 Oct 2010:

It should remain fairly unsettled across many parts of the country during the latter part of September and into the beginning of October, with rain or showers at times but also some drier and brighter periods. It will also likely to be rather windy, especially in exposed areas. The rain is most likely to affect western Scotland, Northern Ireland and northwest England, with perhaps the best chance of any drier conditions towards southern and eastern England. Temperatures should be, on the whole, above normal for the time of year across the country.

[summer blizzard]

One possible "fly in the ointment": high SSTs in the wrong places.

This shows high positive SST anomalies around Greenland and Iceland. Historically, they have tended to result in increased cyclogenesis around those areas (encouraging the development of a large polar vortex in that region) and also take the sting out of any cold airmasses that come our way from the west or north-west.

Still plenty of time for those anomalies to "calm down" though.

The anomolies are certainly conserning in terms of modifying any air (though equally the north east of Europe should benefit from the cold anomoly), however in terms of synoptics i do not think they indicate an enhaced votex on the basis of three things..

1) The La Nina and -PDO combination is certainly taking the sting out of the Pacific Jet Stream, it looks very amplified.

2) The anomolies in the Tropical Atlantic are generally average or below and spreading west towards the USA, as the seas get cooler closer to winter this should send more energy south, especially if we see a +PNA setup.

3) The anomolies west of Greenland are also above average, in combination with the cool anomolies east of the GIN sea, this should actually indicate an east based -NAO provided heights stay low over the Azores, if they go positive we see a blowtorch.

[snowlover2009]

The anomolies are certainly conserning in terms of modifying any air (though equally the north east of Europe should benefit from the cold anomoly), however in terms of synoptics i do not think they indicate an enhaced votex on the basis of three things..

1) The La Nina and -PDO combination is certainly taking the sting out of the Pacific Jet Stream, it looks very amplified.

2) The anomolies in the Tropical Atlantic are generally average or below and spreading west towards the USA, as the seas get cooler closer to winter this should send more energy south, especially if we see a +PNA setup.

3) The anomolies west of Greenland are also above average, in combination with the cool anomolies east of the GIN sea, this should actually indicate an east based -NAO provided heights stay low over the Azores, if they go positive we see a blowtorch.

shouldnt warm waters over greenland be a good thing, so we get more northern blocking and mild high pressure up there?

[Marcus_surfer]

Watched the video. Very interesting. One thing i don't understand though is how the Iceland Volcano can affect the upcoming Winter.

Edited September 15, 2010 by Marcus_surfer

[snowlover2009]

Watched the video. Very interesting. One thing i don't understand though is how the Iceland Volcano can affect the upcoming Winter.

i may have heard wrong, but i thought it was the other way round and the volcano wouldnt affect us or it wouldnt have a major affect on the world???