Major Hurricane Karl

[Cookie]

Has formed in the Caribbean from 92L

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201009141841

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[Paranoid]

I'll try and post the advisory when we get it. Good spot there though Cookie, i was trawling through the recon data and i couldn't find anything.

[summer blizzard]

Is this going into the GOM or gonna get killed over the Yucatan. Great curviture though.

[Paranoid]

Forecast to make it over the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche, where it should become a hurricane briefly (Cat 1-2 possible).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Certainly is organising at a fair pace, given the mess it looked yesterday.

[Iceberg]

I think this might just be TD 13 rather than a tropical storm yet, but it does finally look good.

[Cookie]

Ships says Karl

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *

* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *

* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *

* KARL AL132010 09/14/10 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 47 53 58 70 79 87 93 93 92 91 89

V (KT) LAND 35 40 47 53 42 32 46 53 60 49 34 29 27

V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 46 53 44 32 45 57 71 68 40 31 28

also

WHXX01 KWBC 141847

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1847 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL (AL132010) 20100914 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100914 1800 100915 0600 100915 1800 100916 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 18.1N 83.6W 18.8N 85.9W 19.6N 88.2W 20.4N 90.3W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100916 1800 100917 1800 100918 1800 100919 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.0N 92.2W 22.0N 95.4W 22.6N 99.0W 23.2N 102.8W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 18.1N LONCUR = 83.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 81.1W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 78.5W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 10NM RD34SE = 10NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Iceberg]

It might be cookie, I tend to use the navy page which has him as a 30kt TD, they are all normally the same, but it's more than possible that stronger winds have been found to make him a TS.

NHC should let us know in the next 15 mins.

But I agree that definately says that SHIPS has initialised him at 35kts.

[Iceberg]

Karl it is, I should know better....

Recon found some higher winds according to the NHC discussion.

[Paranoid]

The advisory as promised.

000

WTNT33 KNHC 142051

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010

500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

...TROPICAL STORM KARL FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.3N 84.2W

ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE

EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE MEXICO/

BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE

COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE

BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE

MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE

BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24

HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS

DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM KARL. AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3

NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL

WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO

THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.

AT THIS TIME...KARL IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER

DATA IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE... A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL

FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND

DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3

TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN

GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Cookie]

Karl it is, I should know better....

[Somerset Squall]

It looks like Karl has quite a tight inner core looking at this satellite image. With this kind of structure, Karl could spin up quite rapidly before landfall on the Yucatan.

[Paranoid]

Karl is currently (as of the 10am advisory) at 65mph and has a pressure of 995mb. With some additional strengthening possible it could make it to Cat 1 before landfall, although i suppose the biggest question at the moment is how well will it survive the passage across the Yucatan.

[Iceberg]

Thankfully becuase it's so close to land, their is alot of recon on it. NHC have upped their prediction and now make it a 75Kt hurricane in their forecast just before second landfall.

[Cookie]

Local web-cam their getting battered down their

http://www.webcams.travel/webcam/1280183888-Weather-Costa-Maya-Mahahual

[Somerset Squall]

Karl is moving inland after peaking at 55kts. The central dense overcast feature is bringing some very heavy rains and gusty winds to the Yucatan Peninsula. It'll be interesting how the relatively small Karl handles the landmass of the Yucatan. It appears, at least, that Karl will weaken to a tropical depression. Thereafter, conditions in the BOC are ripe for some quick intensification, similar to the conditions Hermine experienced. Therefore, Karl could become a cat 1 or even cat 2 prior to a second landfall on the Mexican east coast.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Karl has got a head like a f'ing orange!

[Typhoon John]

Local web-cam their getting battered down their

http://www.webcams.travel/webcam/1280183888-Weather-Costa-Maya-Mahahual

http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/5415/201009151200goes11visir.jpg

Cookie, where is this image from?

[Iceberg]

Karl will certaintly be a hurricane today, maybe by the next advisory.

Recon have just done their first pass and recorded pressure of 985mb and flight winds of 70kts, probably leading to a 60kts TS at present, but with a good eye and -80C convective ring about the circle the eye this could still become yet another Major Hurricane for this year...

[Iceberg]

Bang on track NHC have just released a special advisory.

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS KARL STRONGER...SPECIAL ADVISORY

FORTHCOMING...

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM KARL HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF NEAR

65 MPH...100 KM/HR...AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986 MB...

29.12 IN.

A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY IN LIEU OF THE 700 AM

CDT...1200 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY.

[Iceberg]

SMFR winds of 65Kts with a 73kt flight wind has been reported in the NW quad, this just gives 65Kt CAT 1 winds. A further assumption might be made that the strongest winds are normally in the NE quad, reinforcing that Karl might now be a hurricane.

124700 1947N 09233W 8436 01413 9940 +150 +144 045072 073 065 027 00

124730 1949N 09234W 8431 01434 9959 +148 +139 050072 073 061 017 00

NHC have issues a further emergency update to it's future intensity saying that it will make landfall as an 85kts storm, which is probably conservative.

Thankfully Karl isn't large in nature, but might still be a major problem depending on where it lands.

[Iceberg]

NHC concur and we now have 3 concurrent hurricanes.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 850 MB

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF UP TO 76 KT IN A DEVELOPING EYEWALL...WITH

SURFACE WINDS ESTIMATES OF 60-65 KT FROM THE SFMR. THE CENTRAL

PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 983 MB. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM

TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...KARL IS UPGRADED TO

A 65-KT HURRICANE

Hello Hurricane Karl

He has also been raised to hit land as a 95Kt storm.

[Iceberg]

HURRICANE Karl, is unfortunately due to hit quite a populated area of Mexico. Here's hoping it doesn't bomb.

[Cookie]

Heading towards at CAT 2 as it heads towards landfall

[Iceberg]

Could a mod update this now.

Karl is now a Major CAT 3 hurricane about to hit Mexico.

NHC have upped him further and he is now due to hit Mexico, near a populated area as a CAT 4, 120kt hurricane due to some recent Rapid Intensification.

The Area of maximum winds is likely to be very small, however where they do hit sustained wind speeds of 140mph are forecast, which are strong enough to destroy pretty much anything it comes into contact with.

The below description of a CAT 4 stike is taken directly from the NHC site.

Catastrophic damage will occur.

There is a very high risk of injury or death to people, livestock, and pets due to flying and falling debris.

Nearly all older (pre-1994) mobile homes will be destroyed. A high percentage of newer mobile homes also will be destroyed.

Poorly constructed homes can sustain complete collapse of all walls as well as the loss of the roof structure. Well-built homes also can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Extensive damage to roof coverings, windows, and doors will occur. Large amounts of windborne debris will be lofted into the air. Windborne debris damage will break most unprotected windows and penetrate some protected windows.

Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas.

There will be a high percentage of structural damage to the top floors of apartment buildings. Steel frames in older industrial buildings can collapse. There will be a high percentage of collapse to older unreinforced masonry buildings.

[AderynCoch]

One saving grace right now is that Karl is quite a small hurricane (hurricane-force winds up to 25 miles from the centre, compared with 105 miles for Igor at present), so that he should affect a relatively small section of coast. However, smaller hurricanes tend to organise quicker and are less likely to be disrupted by land before the eye makes landfall (by dragging dry air into the circulation for instance), so I can only see Karl getting stronger until impact. He reminds me a lot of Charley in this way. A slight wobble before landfall could spare one village and doom another.