Major Hurricane Karl

[snowmadchrisuk]

One saving grace right now is that Karl is quite a small hurricane (hurricane-force winds up to 25 miles from the centre, compared with 105 miles for Igor at present), so that he should affect a relatively small section of coast. However, smaller hurricanes tend to organise quicker and are less likely to be disrupted by land before the eye makes landfall (by dragging dry air into the circulation for instance), so I can only see Karl getting stronger until impact. He reminds me a lot of Charley in this way. A slight wobble before landfall could spare one village and doom another.

In my opinion it looks like karl is going to devastate Vera-Cruz Mexico. It is one of the most highly populated areas off the coast of Mexico with more than 9 Million people living there. The last hurricane to effect the area was back in 2005 Hurricane Stan this killed 160 people and was only a minimum cat 1. This looks like it is already around Cat 4 and looks like Vera-Cruz could get a direct hit . There is also a lot of fishing in the area. latest image is below.

[AderynCoch]

The main cause of devastation from Stan was slow movement and torrential rain, which lead to flooding and mudslides. Similarly, nearly all of the 200+ deaths caused in Mexico by Hurricane Gilbert were due to flooding in inland mountainous areas; in fact, I'm not sure anyone died when Gilbert slammed into the Yucatan Peninsula at Category 5 strength.

As for Karl, I suspect inland flooding will be a major problem again. I'd be surprised if there were no fatalities along the coast but Mexico (Yucatan at least) generally seems well-prepared for approaching hurricanes. Then again, this section of the coast doesn't get hit that often by major hurricanes and I hope no one's been caught off-guard.

[Iceberg]

Recon is currently about 1 hr away from Karl, but there is no doubt from an organisational POV it's definately going through RI and looks horrific on Convective IR with cloud tops getting close to -90C ringing the eye. He's tightening as well.

He's due to make landfall evening time in Mexico.

Mexican Doppler

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-alva.gif

Shows the eye nicely

[Paranoid]

Haven't seen convection that strong at any point in this season before, and if Karl goes onto become a Cat 4 as predicted the 2010 season will rival the 1999 and 2005 seasons for having 5 storms of Cat 4 or higher in the same season. Apart from Alex earlier in the season, Karl is probably the only storm to have posed a real threat to life and property this season.

Also it may be worth noting that the 2010 season is already in the "above normal" range for its ACE value.

[Flipflop]

Is there any webcams to view Karl?

Cheers

[Iceberg]

Recon are almost at the eye now.

113230 2006N 09502W 6969 03114 0022 +083 //// 125060 061 038 010 01

The above has just been recorded which is a flight wind of 61kts at a pressure of 1002.2, this would indicate a very tight pressure gradient, moderate to strong tropical winds do extend though throughout the CDO.

First eye pass and the pressure looks to be 952mb(considerably below the 960 in the last advisory).

SMFR surface winds of 99kts, however flight level winds look too low.

114200 1942N 09525W 6966 02905 //// +099 //// 140078 080 086 037 01

114230 1941N 09526W 6954 02885 9669 +141 +124 139083 084 093 045 00

114300 1940N 09528W 6978 02806 //// +100 //// 135085 087 099 043 05

114330 1939N 09529W 6956 02794 9584 +114 //// 131061 068 061 006 05

114400 1937N 09530W 6972 02758 9555 +146 +140 134034 042 043 004 03

114430 1936N 09531W 6966 02759 9535 +158 +135 179015 017 023 005 03

114500 1935N 09533W 6970 02752 9523 +173 +126 242008 011 017 004 03

114530 1934N 09534W 6967 02767 9541 +164 +112 312018 023 022 005 03

114600

[Iceberg]

Latest Advisory.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY

AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE

IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES

LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE

AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS

ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5

TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST

REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE

INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH

FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

[Iceberg]

Latest advisory puts landfall 50 miles to the NNW of Veracruz and then takes the eye over Xalapa Enriquez, which is inturn approx 35 miles inland. Xalapa is the major city in the area with approx 1 Million people in and around it.

The eye is approx C8 miles across and might with a bit of luck implode before reaching land.

Re Wed Cams, unfortunately due to my work firewall I can't access most of the web cams does anybody have any ?.

I believe this is the strongest storm to hit this region of Mexico in the last 50 years or so at least.

Flooding of coastal areas due to the storm surge will also likely be a big problem, particularly for Veracruz upto Tuxpam de Rodriguez.

[Paranoid]

The cloud tops have warmed considerably overnight judging from IR imagery (nearly if not all of the grey colours have vanished). Karl is still intensfying, pressure is down to 956mb but winds haven't increased yet which may be a good thing for Mexico. The whole storm in general doesn't look as good as it did earlier so i think Karl's proximity to land may be his structure. With any luck Karl has peaked now and hopefully will start to weaken a bit before landfall.

[Iceberg]

Recon doing another pass.

SMFR (surface winds) of 101kts in the SE eye-wall(normally one of the weakest), but still flight winds of only 97kts.

125300 1925N 09535W 6943 02948 //// +072 //// 235096 097 090 037 01

125330 1926N 09537W 6978 02893 //// +075 //// 231095 097 096 028 01

125400 1927N 09538W 6955 02889 //// +089 //// 231078 088 101 025 05

NW Quad gives 95kt surface winds as well in the eye, this makes I believe CAT 3 surface winds in ALL quadrants of the eye.

I make the eye wall as having CAT 1 surface winds upto 20 miles north of the eye. The pressure does seem to be higher now though, which might indicate that the eye is open somewhere and is leaking, which would be very good news, I think this concurs with what you were saying Paranoid.

125800 1939N 09546W 6964 02874 9652 +173 +086 051091 094 073 005 03

125830 1940N 09546W 6963 02908 9687 +166 +088 058095 098 095 003 00

125900 1942N 09547W 6976 02917 9732 +151 +096 057088 092 094 007 00

125930 1943N 09547W 6973 02944 9770 +140 +101 058081 083 089 008 03

130000 1944N 09548W 6971 02971 9820 +117 +109 060083 088 082 010 00

130030 1946N 09549W 6974 02992 9853 +113 +101 059089 090 076 014 00

130100 1947N 09549W 6958 03035 9892 +099 +095 061088 092 063 023 03

130130 1949N 09549W 6975 03029 9907 +102 //// 066079 081 063 019 01

[Iceberg]

Very strong winds suddenly found in the SE quad(which is very strange) 118kts....

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132010

A. 17/14:12:40Z

B. 19 deg 27 min N

095 deg 52 min W

C. 700 mb 2798 m

D. 86 kt

E. 323 deg 9 nm

F. 046 deg 97 kt

G. 324 deg 8 nm

H. 969 mb

I. 16 C / 3060 m

J. 16 C / 3026 m

K. 12 C / NA

L. CLOSED

M. C10

N. 1234 / 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF301 0513A KARL OB 14 CCA

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 118 KT SE QUAD 14:14:40Z

MAX FL TEMP 18 C 325 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

NHC update within the last 10 mins

A significant shift southwards of the Eye landfall has brought landfall to within 10 miles of Veracruz, This brings those strongest 100Kt surface winds and 118kt flight winds to Verzcruz Directly in the SW and SE eye wall.

This is not good news...

[AderynCoch]

The dreaded wobble. Any further south and there would be a good chance of Veracruz suffering the strongest winds.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Latest advisory puts landfall 50 miles to the NNW of Veracruz and then takes the eye over Xalapa Enriquez, which is inturn approx 35 miles inland. Xalapa is the major city in the area with approx 1 Million people in and around it.

The eye is approx C8 miles across and might with a bit of luck implode before reaching land.

Re Wed Cams, unfortunately due to my work firewall I can't access most of the web cams does anybody have any ?.

I believe this is the strongest storm to hit this region of Mexico in the last 50 years or so at least.

Flooding of coastal areas due to the storm surge will also likely be a big problem, particularly for Veracruz upto Tuxpam de Rodriguez.

Hurricane City is streaming live TV from the area which is better than webcams . You will have to guess what there saying though unless you can speak spanish

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live/

[Iceberg]

Just in case people don't know much about Veracruz (because I didn't).

The below is from Wiki, the worst bit is that it's flat being only 3 ft above the sea(pictures confirm this).

It's essentially a holiday result kind of place where the buildings go to the sea(with a poopulation of 3/4 of a million), compare this with the expected 15ft strom surge.....

[snowmadchrisuk]

Just in case people don't know much about Veracruz (because I didn't).

The below is from Wiki, the worst bit is that it's flat being only 3 ft above the sea(pictures confirm this).

It's essentially a holiday result kind of place where the buildings go to the sea(with a poopulation of 3/4 of a million), compare this with the expected 15ft strom surge.....

I got told nearer 9mil but I think that may be wrong but 7 million is the correct figure according to Wiki

. The population of 7 million is the third largest in Mexico. The state is noted for its mixed ethnic and large indigenous populations.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veracruz

[Iceberg]

Yep I think that's the state of Veracruz rather than the city of Veracruz, it does show though that it's a very populated area of Mexico.

[AderynCoch]

Then again, this section of the coast doesn't get hit that often by major hurricanes

Understatement of the month. Apparently Karl is the first ever major hurricane in the Bay of Campeche! I would have thought there had been a few in the past.

[Cookie]

[Iceberg]

Karl made landfall 10 miles from city of Veracruz, with an eye of 10nm.

MEXICAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE

CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF

MEXICO ABOUT 10 MILES...15 KM...NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 1130

AM CDT...1630 UTC. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE

ESTIMATED TO BE 115 MPH...185 KM/HR.

SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION

--------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.3N 96.2W

ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...29.82 INCHES