Possible New Tc

[knocker]

From NOP.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 151.6E TO 15.8N 145.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 182332Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 151.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 152.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 151.2, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED INFLOW INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 182024Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS STILL DISORGANIZED. ALSO, A 190004Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS WEAK LLCC WITH HIGHER GRADIENT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN ANTICYCLONE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTION, THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.