Long Range Forecasting - Fact Or Fiction

[Glacier Point]

In fairness to JB, his central tenent was that during El Ninos within cold PDOs you get a solid cold signal for Europe. That is tied into angular momentum and the surges in relative angular momentum that you get which helps drive a -NAO -AO pattern (a bit similar to the current state of the modelling).

[cooling climate]

But that's my point. They weren't. Joe B, for example, was forecasting a cold winter for completely different reasons. He just got lucky for once. I don't know what BFTP's forecast was.

GP's right though: this demonstrates very clearly why it's important to show your rationale.

If I predict a cold winter because there are more berries on the trees and you predict a cold winter because there are less berries on the trees and we get a cold winter, were we both right? Are both our LRF techniques verified? Or was it just coincidence and the number of berries has no relevance?

Many forcasters over in the states also predicted a cold and snowy winter with a acurate reasoned explanation as

to why including professional met Larry cosgrove (his weather America newsletter out most Sundays is always a

good and informative read).

In the case of Joe B though I would partially agree with you as he forcast the real cold of the winter last year to come

in the second half of winter and only changed this in mid January.

I would also agree that know one forcast the AO to tank the way it did although with the stratosphere warming that

occurred during October and November a blocking negative AO was on the cards.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It is my view that the southerly movement of the jetstream due to the solar driven perturbation cycle we switched into in Feb 2007 has made the atmospheric set up more readily tend to hold a negative AO and -ve NAO. For me it was the shift in the jetstream that leads us down this path but other factors will decide where the main thrust of blocking will occur.

BFTP

[weather eater]

LRFs are an interesting subject and come in two varieties, the made it up off the top of my head kind and those that have an underlying methodology. Any LRFs produced using a methodology on a year in year out basis must be judged in the same way as a scientific experiment, in other words judged over several seasons and years and not just on the basis of, it was a good call last year. This is why J. Bs forecasts don’t cut it for me, while without a doubt last years forecast was pretty good, plenty of previous ones were somewhat less so. Interestingly enough, his early call this year is for eastern Europe to have a cold winter, western Europe much less so. If we do have a cold winter this year then I hope people remember that call before dishing out the plaudits. He may yet of course issue a different forecast, its early yet so I see nothing wrong with him changing his opinion and judging him on that one instead. Of course if J.B is correct than that will be two good calls, and I for one would be more than happy to slap him on the back and say well done. I would also say about JB, that he has a great style, is interesting to listen to, and he obviously really enjoys his job, and that really comes through in his video clips. Of course nobody should expect LRFs to be 100% accurate and I see nothing wrong with making adjustments as the season progresses, so as to take in key atmospheric changes, that is how GP appears to work, he’s not always right, but then he’s also not often far out either. Also his methodology is well laid out and presented, even if a fair bit of it goes over the heads of many of us. While I have talked about GPs forecasts, I don’t think it fair to single out any other NW members, several make LRFs, some are good, some are bad, and some a bit hit and miss. However the criteria I mentioned earlier stands, the success of those that are produced using a methodology should only be judged over several years, not just on a one off, or even occasional, good call. Allowances should perhaps also be made for refining that methodology, as well as plaudits for having a go.

Simply put, if an LRF methodology does not stand up over several seasons and years, then it is no better than an off the top of the head guess.

Edited October 10, 2010 by weather eater

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I like Joe B and his style. However, what many have missed is that he called the main core of the cold to be in Eastern Europe, I think he missed the boat on how far west the main thrust would be although I give him a correct overall call.

Like GP, RJS and I at an early stage called that Feb would likely be on mild side and I'm glad W E mentions the 'right to adjust' as in early to mid Jan I changed the call for Feb to be on cold side as I could see in my methodology that the signal came through stronger on the cold side. The LRF got Feb wrong.

I think there'll be a big similarity to GPs and our forecast again but for the record I am at this stage calling Feb as very cold/coldest month.

BFTP

[Essan]

I like Joe B and his style. However, what many have missed is that he called the main core of the cold to be in Eastern Europe, I think he missed the boat on how far west the main thrust would be although I give him a correct overall call.

My criticism of Joe B (and this applies to others like Piers Corbyn) is that whilst he may have been broadly right, his rationale - that El Nino would be replaced by La Nina last winter - was totally wrong. Hence I say it's pure coincidence.

[Yorkshiresnows]

My criticism of Joe B (and this applies to others like Piers Corbyn) is that whilst he may have been broadly right, his rationale - that El Nino would be replaced by La Nina last winter - was totally wrong. Hence I say it's pure coincidence.

Well, I think your being a little unfair ... true he has over recent years been calling for cold in the UK and Europe, but over the past 18 months he' s been pretty much spot on.,

Last year he stated that the main core of the cold would be in Europe, the further East, the colder., but he also stated that he was unsure as to how far west the cold would back, with some models showing the core of the cold further West..

He also called the El Nino to shift to La Nina .... which it has in spectacular fashion, and provided a good call for summer UK.

He correctly called the arctic melt season, late melt, then rapid melt etc (its alll on his video blog).

He has a good style and has a video blog where he discusses his successes and failures...... you can't really say fairer than that.

Comparison with Piers Corbyn is also way out (in my opinion).

Y.S

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

My criticism of Joe B (and this applies to others like Piers Corbyn) is that whilst he may have been broadly right, his rationale - that El Nino would be replaced by La Nina last winter - was totally wrong. Hence I say it's pure coincidence.

I think you'll find that he said the El Nino would crash early this year which it did at an incredible rate, he never said that La Nina would form last winter, unless I missed that post?

BFTP

[weather eater]

My criticism of Joe B (and this applies to others like Piers Corbyn) is that whilst he may have been broadly right, his rationale - that El Nino would be replaced by La Nina last winter - was totally wrong. Hence I say it's pure coincidence.

I have to also say that its harsh to compare JB with Piers Corbyn. Personally I have been critical of JB for a few years, and as I said in my post he needs to make some good calls for me to change my mind, but he is in a different league to Piers. Besides it may be that he is still getting to grips with what is in truth, a tough nut to crack. Which is why I think some leeway should be allowed, both in the overall LRF and in making slight adjustments, provided those adjustments are not made on the basis of information from long range models.

As I said in my earlier post JBs early call for this winter is for a cold eastern Europe, less so in western Europe. Two things to note about that.

1. I'm not sure that’s a difficult call, as eastern Europe is generally likely to be colder than western Europe.

2. From what I understand JB has been having some work issues, I guess with his employers, about his work load and time spent on stuff that they don't consider a priority. He has stated that he doesn’t feel that he can give a European LRF the time it deserves. Now that was a few weeks ago and the situation may have changed, but as far as I’m aware that Euro call is just a basic forecast with little detail, so it would be unfair to judge to it too harshly.

[Essan]

Clearly I've gatecrashed the Joe B fan club

Can't find his forecast off hand, but I note that the Daily Telegraph quoting him as saying "Though Britain’s temperatures are likely to be near normal there is a risk of very cold weather coming in from eastern Europe"

Anyway, whatever I say won't convince his disciples that he got it wrong so I'll leave you in peace.

[Eugene]

No offense to Joe B fans but i think the guy is abit of a Buffoon, maybe thats what B really stands for

Edited October 10, 2010 by Eugene

[shuggee]

All I'll say on the subject, is that having sat through the winters of 2002/3 to 2008/9 reading the same thing every year from JB, then don't hold your breath thinking his forecast will produce this year.

[Essan]

btw, just for the record

http://weatherearthnews.blogspot.com/2009/12/1st-december-todays-news.html

[weather eater]

Clearly I've gatecrashed the Joe B fan club

Can't find his forecast off hand, but I note that the Daily Telegraph quoting him as saying "Though Britain’s temperatures are likely to be near normal there is a risk of very cold weather coming in from eastern Europe"

Anyway, whatever I say won't convince his disciples that he got it wrong so I'll leave you in peace.

Hardly, at least I'm not, but I think I've tried to be objective in my assessment.

It seems to me that part of the problem with Joe and maybe some others, is that he comes from a predetermined angle, in short and like most of us, he's a winter weather fan, and I rather feel that this rather colours his forecasts. He appears to know his stuff, but tends to pay more attention to the signals that support what he wants to see, while ignoring others. I've said this before, if you call a cold winter every year, you're going to strike lucky eventually, the trick for Joe is can he pull it of again.

Edited October 10, 2010 by weather eater

[johnholmes]

maybe rather than make your own 'quotes' on what he said recently or last autumn peple should read his blog, see link below, latest entry 9 October 2010 with a promise he will release his European forecast, I think he said, 20 October 2010.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp?partner=accu00405

Don't get me wrong I'm not a rabid supporter of Joe, probably more anti than for, but I do prefer fact to fiction when supposedly quoting someone, so do please read his blog folks?

[Yorkshiresnows]

No offense to Joe B fans but i think the guy is abit of a Buffoon, maybe thats what B really stands for

Its a free world, but, ....all too easy for folks to critisise. What I cannot quite get into my head is that ......... HE GOT IT BROADLY CORRECT !!!!, certainly more so than the MET, more so than that idiot Ian Brown and indeed many others !!!

So you'l forgive me (and many others) for thinking a little more highly of him (being a professional) .......... than you.

When is your winter forecast coming out so we can see whether you fit the description 'buffoon' ???

Y.S

[weather eater]

maybe rather than make your own 'quotes' on what he said recently or last autumn peple should read his blog, see link below, latest entry 9 October 2010 with a promise he will release his European forecast, I think he said, 20 October 2010.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp?partner=accu00405

Don't get me wrong I'm not a rabid supporter of Joe, probably more anti than for, but I do prefer fact to fiction when supposedly quoting someone, so do please read his blog folks?

I can't speak for others John but I took my info from his own broadcast about a month ago, It could be that things have changed for him and that would be good, but I certainly didn't get my info second hand, I wish I had hung on to the video clip now.

[Methuselah]

Its a free world, but, ....all too easy for folks to critisise. What I cannot quite get into my head is that ......... HE GOT IT BROADLY CORRECT !!!!, certainly more so than the MET, more so than that idiot Ian Brown and indeed many others !!!

So you'l forgive me (and many others) for thinking a little more highly of him (being a professional) .......... than you.

When is your winter forecast coming out so we can see whether you fit the description 'buffoon' ???

Y.S

So that makes up for all the times he, in common with just about everyone else, gets it 'broadly wrong'?

[Paul]

As this one has now been running a week, it'll now be 'de-stickied' but will still be open for people to continue the discussion. This week's talking point will be online soon..

[TonyH]

btw, just for the record

http://weatherearthn...odays-news.html

Thanks for the link, that's a great site! Very informative and useful for us weather buffs I should think- keep up the good work.

Did not realise yours at first, I was thinking it was to JB's site...thankfully it was not!

Edited October 11, 2010 by Tonyh

[knocker]

I’ve been spending a bit of time trying to come to grips with some of the methodology regarding LRFs as explained by some of the very knowledgeable people that post on this forum. In particular the part played by the warming/cooling of the stratosphere (ozone) by variations of uv radiation during the eleven year solar cycle. This causes (if I’m reading this correctly) spatial variations in the stratospheric wind and also perturbations in the tropospheric circulation and thus weather patterns that can, with experience be incorporated into an LRF. What I appear to have missed is atmosphere – ocean interactions that also accompany this variation.

Whilst looking into this I came across a paper from 2009, “Scientists Uncover Solar Cycle, Stratosphere, and Ocean Connectionsâ€. I don’t know whether this been posted and discussed before, if so apologies, but am I thinking along the right lines in this matter because the solar cycle isn’t a precise science in seasonal terms? The paper can be found at:

http://www.ucar.edu/...solarcycle2.jsp

Also GW is causing the stratosphere to cool, particularly around the North Pole, thus inhibiting ozone concentrations due to the increase of polar stratospheric clouds that cause ozone depletion. Although presumably this is not really relevant as we are talking about equatorial ozone except it will be a positive feedback.

Am I going in the right direction here?

Edited October 11, 2010 by weather ship

[Essan]

Thanks for the link, that's a great site! Very informative and useful for us weather buffs I should think- keep up the good work.

Did not realise yours at first, I was thinking it was to JB's site...thankfully it was not!

Thks Tony It's proving quite educational running it too: I'm becoming a uber-geek as far as knowing about world weather events is concerned! :lol:

(but it's also useful for reminding me what I was thinking/saying a year ago!)

[cooling climate]

Disagree, All of our forecast variables came off.

Impact of surging increase in angular momentum supportive of high latitude blocking. Check.

Impact of enhanced Brewer Dobson Circulation during the autumn resulting in increased ozone concentrations over the Arctic Stratosphere leading to high latitude blocking (supported by anomalous upwelling of the tropical stratosphere (adiabatic cooling) and anomalous downwelling of the arctic stratosphere (adiabatic warming). Check.

I think that should read diabatic cooling and warming as from what I have read on the composition and structure

of the stratosphere the stratosphere is stably stratified and any heating or cooling is added or taken away and not

introduced via compression or expansion with altitude.

Below is a better explanation.

Static Stability -- Because temperature increases with altitude in the stratosphere, warmer air overlays colder air. As a result of this temperature structure, convection never happens in the stratosphere. If we could displace an air parcel to a higher altitude in the stratosphere, it would be colder than its surroundings. Cold air is more dense than warm air, and the parcel would sink back to its original location, though it would overshoot slightly because of its momentum. After overshooting, it would drop to a location where it would be warmer than its surroundings. Warm air is less dense than cold air, and the parcel would rise back to its original location, though it would once again overshoot slightly. This process would continue in a series of vertical oscillations about some equilibrium altitude where the parcel density and the surrounding air (ambient) density were the same.Such up and down oscillations of air (like a bob on the end of a rubber band) are indeed observed in the atmosphere. In the stratosphere, this oscillation has a period of about 40 seconds. In the troposphere, the same sort of displacement has a period of about 70 seconds. The faster oscillation in the stratosphere occurs because of the fact that air in the stratosphere gets warmer with altitude. This means that the air has greater static stability or greater buoyancy in the stratosphere. The greater stability in the stratosphere is the reason why vertical motions of air are not easily accomplished there. We speak of the stratosphere as being "stably stratified".

[Weather-history]

All I'll say on the subject, is that having sat through the winters of 2002/3 to 2008/9 reading the same thing every year from JB, then don't hold your breath thinking his forecast will produce this year.

I posted this earlier this year

"One commenter on Hudson’s blog claimed laminate floori “always forecasts a cold winter so eventually will get it right one dayâ€. But is that fair or just an ad hominem attack on a man who put the Met Office’s collective nose out of joint? Over a period of time, just how accurate is Joe laminate floori compared to our lavishly funded Met Office?

Of the last eleven winters, the Met Office forecast milder conditions than actually occurred for nine of them. The last time laminate floori predicted a colder winter was last year for eastern Europe. He was right (again). Prior to that, the last cold winter he predicted was for 2002-3. Hardly evidence of him always forecasting cold winters."

http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2010/01/11/met-office-v-joe-laminate floori/

[knocker]

I think that should read diabatic cooling and warming as from what I have read on the composition and structure

of the stratosphere the stratosphere is stably stratified and any heating or cooling is added or taken away and not

introduced via compression or expansion with altitude.

Below is a better explanation.

Static Stability -- Because temperature increases with altitude in the stratosphere, warmer air overlays colder air.

This is not always the case. See for example midnight sounding from Camborne.And some cooling is much greater than that.

Edited October 11, 2010 by weather ship