Long Range Forecasting - Fact Or Fiction

[knocker]

Just to add a little detail to my somewhat cryptic post. In recent years there have been a number of research projects to attempt to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of the stratosphere in the arctic. One was “Observations of vertically thick polar stratospheric clouds and record low temperatures in the arctic vortex†by Rigel Kivi and Esko Kyrö. During the period of the research a regular radiosonde measured a record low temperature of -96C at 25.2km and the temperature dropped 23C in just 4km. The reasons for high-amplitude stratospheric temperature fluctuations are somewhat beyond me but here is a link to the paper.

http://www.pa.op.dlr...apers/rigel.pdf

Of course in general the comment that the stratosphere gradually gets warmer is essentially correct; increasingly so above 30km. I remember some years ago we regularly used to fly high altitude radiosondes as part of the normal programme. These used to reach 5mb and above and even touch 40km. On one occasion we actually measured plus temperatures for a couple of days around about 4mb if I remember correctly. I believe not that common at that height. Gave a new meaning to the term “two freezing levelsâ€.

And of course the sonde would sometimes pass through two jet streams blowing in the same direction, the stratospheric jet, at about 30km, being westerly in winter. We followed one down on the radar once and it landed in the North Sea! A tidy step from Camborne.

Off now to put the violin away.

Edited October 12, 2010 by weather ship

[Essan]

I posted this earlier this year

"One commenter on Hudson’s blog claimed laminate floori “always forecasts a cold winter so eventually will get it right one dayâ€. But is that fair or just an ad hominem attack on a man who put the Met Office’s collective nose out of joint? Over a period of time, just how accurate is Joe laminate floori compared to our lavishly funded Met Office?

Joe B put the MetO's nose out of joint in the same way a small ant in Sussex last week caused an asteroid to hit the Moon. In 1911. But I appreciate these days it's traditional to attack the MetO with ad homs at every avaliable opportunity. So I'll let it go

However it is interesting that some think that just saying it will be cold and snowy and it then turning out cold and snowy is all that is necessary to get a LRF right. The synoptics causing the cold and snowy weather and the rationale behind the synoptics don't count ......

Personally I believe the opposite.

btw what makes you think that blog entry* you quote is accurate? After all his interpretation of the MetO winter forecast was somewhat different to mine? Maybe he has a slight bias? :winky:

* the censor won't all the link to be posted but if you go to http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/about/ and search for Joe B you should find it

Edited October 12, 2010 by Essan

[weather eater]

I posted this earlier this year

"One commenter on Hudson’s blog claimed laminate floori “always forecasts a cold winter so eventually will get it right one dayâ€. But is that fair or just an ad hominem attack on a man who put the Met Office’s collective nose out of joint? Over a period of time, just how accurate is Joe laminate floori compared to our lavishly funded Met Office?

Of the last eleven winters, the Met Office forecast milder conditions than actually occurred for nine of them. The last time laminate floori predicted a colder winter was last year for eastern Europe. He was right (again). Prior to that, the last cold winter he predicted was for 2002-3. Hardly evidence of him always forecasting cold winters."

http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2010/01/11/met-office-v-joe-laminate floori/

I think I've been pretty fair to Joe B. Now the link you provided gave me an error message, however my memory is not that bad, and while I’ve not made 1000s of posts, I do follow NW every year and have done so for the last 6/7 years or so now, and I can recall that Joe B has predicted more than just 2002/03 as a cold winter for us. In regards Met Office winter calls, I would say that many, but not all of them, have been within a range of accuracy that you might expect when trying to forecast that far ahead. Also the MO have now recognised their short commings and decided that those forecasts are not worth the effort. Going back to JBs forecasts, and looking in terms of the UK, he didn’t get last winter especially right either. Although to be fair to JB that’s a harsh criticism, if we use the criteria that I mentioned in regards winter forecasts by the MO. Then JBs call last year was pretty good. Also being fair to JB its worth remembering that his remit is North America and not Europe, so maybe his skill should be judged on his winter calls over there.