Winter 2010/2011 Part 2

[Isolated Frost]

As long as the battle lines don't get drawn up in midlands leaving west country cider folk in the rain ill be happy. :blush:

Hehe. How did you fare last winter?

BTW, new name, not Nu Design, now it's Isolated Frost, wintry theme name from now on.

[Marcus_surfer]

If winter doesnt arrive, i'll just whip out my snow machine.

[Isolated Frost]

If winter doesnt arrive, i'll just whip out my snow machine.

I'll give you £2000 for that. Snow joke.

[Marcus_surfer]

I'll give you £2000 for that. Snow joke.

Lol, joking it's not mine. Don't think the parents would approve. "Dad, give me a hand with this thing will you? What isit? Ah just a snow machine im gonna set up in the garden and blast it in my face"

[Nights King]

Hehe. How did you fare last winter?

BTW, new name, not Nu Design, now it's Isolated Frost, wintry theme name from now on.

We did very well indeed with some very high totals of snow. lower areas had abit of a thaw around xmas period as cold retreated north although we held on to the snowcover around hills.

I just see alot of winters when snow line tends to be around south wales and midlands with me on hills getting sleety rubbish.

[snowray]

And what sources have you used for this forecast? Or have you just made it up?

evidence...what evidence? Good funny read though.

Seems pretty extreme but we have:

1/ South tracking Jet

2/ Sunspots, or should I say the lack of Sunspots, in fact the lowest solar activity in 200 years

3/ Reports that some wild animals are behaving as if they know something we don't, IE; Wild Geese migration, and early hibernation of some mammals.

[Isolated Frost]

Lol, joking it's not mine. Don't think the parents would approve. "Dad, give me a hand with this thing will you? What isit? Ah just a snow machine im gonna set up in the garden and blast it in my face"

I knew that

I may buy a snowmobile, not for the snow, just to be cool!

[artfularshavin]

There's Statistics and then there's Statistics. 3 Cold Winters in a row? It looks like it, with negative NAO, and a decreasing Gulf Stream, but surely not 3 winters in a row.

For me, we are in the same situation as last winter, apart from El Nino and La Nina, La Nina normally gives slightly milder winters than usual, but we don't know what'll happen when it reacts with a -NAO, which has been negative for a whole year now!

Despite all this, there's one thing that decides winter for me. One Battle.

Atlantic vs. Arctic & European winds.

Are you 'lukesluckybunch' on Met Monkey? Anyway, do you care to tell us why you have predicted such a cold winter?

yes i am,i do believe it will be mainly due to the jet stream being on holiday down south in africa somwhere lol-also winters ar generally cooling now.and i believe in weathergeeks theory.that within the next 5 ten years thins will be entering a mini ice age.its just logic aswell.i mean look how quiet the atlantic is now! its dru lot of the time

[Isolated Frost]

We did very well indeed with some very high totals of snow. lower areas had abit of a thaw around xmas period as cold retreated north although we held on to the snowcover around hills.

I just see alot of winters when snow line tends to be around south wales and midlands with me on hills getting sleety rubbish.

Good to see that the SW gets good snowfall. Well, at least last year. Although at 290m ASL, you would be pretty miffed if you didn't get high totals of snow!

Aye, the snow line. Causes havoc wherever you are. Lucky me here in Durham, right next to the pennines, and perfectly placed for the snow showers we got from the North Sea last winter.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Temperatures go up - Global Warming

Temperatures go down - Ice Age

Temperatures move around. They'll do that you know.

Edited October 8, 2010 by Isolated Frost

[greybing]

But statistically ,it is unlikely to be a milder than average winter also!

yeah,thats true we have the term average which is what the winter is most likely to be

[Guest]

Forget winter for a few days.

Close on 21c here!

24C at Capestang

[egret]

Yes, nice early spring - winter didn't last that long this year!! Blackbirds will soon be nesting.

24C at Capestang

[Iceni]

Just opened the back door and got a real blast from a true Easterly — I thought "come back to visit us in a month or two my friend" — and it's so much colder than the other wind directions, even at this time of year.

Can't wait.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/mei.data

September update, strongest La Nina since 1955 and second strongest on record.

[Backtrack]

People need to go easy on the insults and hate casting, or this thread will be locked again.

[Marcus_surfer]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/mei.data

September update, strongest La Nina since 1955 and second strongest on record.

What does a Strong La Nina mean? Can someone explain?

[summer blizzard]

What does a Strong La Nina mean? Can someone explain?

El Nino/La Nina are in the tropical pacific, La Nina means that sea surface temperatures are below average, it is one of the main drivers of global weather.

Having looked at the August-September MEI data, over 75% of anologues indicate a peak between September/November, meaning it is highly likely that we will see mature/weakening La Nina conditions. The majority of anologues did indicate a mature La Nina, the temperature profile for mature La Nina winters is below..

Dec – 4.7C, 0.4C below average

Jan – 3.8C, 0.4C below average

Feb – 4.5C, 0.3C above average

What this means is that there are indications from both MEI and QBO anologues that both December and January will be be below average, with a conflicting signal for February.

[Isolated Frost]

COMPLETELY off-topic, but what does SACRA mean?

[Mark Bayley]

COMPLETELY off-topic, but what does SACRA mean?

Snow and cold rompers association?

[iand61]

My forecast for the coming winter - mainly mild and wet, very limited frost and only a small chance of snow.

The science behind my forecast - non whatsoever other than on the back of the problems we had from last years conditions i've just ordered our company several tonnes of rock salt whilst available and reasonably priced and are in the middle of making fork lift attached snow ploughs to keep yard areas clear.

Come the end of winter I will possibly be knighted for my services to the art of forward planning although more than likely I will be made to sit with a bare backside on the top of an unused 1 tonne bag of winter salt whilst looking at what I can gonvert an unused steel snow plough into.

There will be snow but only time will tell whether it will be with us or tantalisingly close by in Europe.

Ian

[snowlover2009]

My forecast for the coming winter - mainly mild and wet, very limited frost and only a small chance of snow.

The science behind my forecast - non whatsoever other than on the back of the problems we had from last years conditions i've just ordered our company several tonnes of rock salt whilst available and reasonably priced and are in the middle of making fork lift attached snow ploughs to keep yard areas clear.

Come the end of winter I will possibly be knighted for my services to the art of forward planning although more than likely I will be made to sit with a bare backside on the top of an unused 1 tonne bag of winter salt whilst looking at what I can gonvert an unused steel snow plough into.

There will be snow but only time will tell whether it will be with us or tantalisingly close by in Europe.

Ian

Strong La Nina, Southerly tracking jety due to solar driven perturbation cycle [longterm 30+ years], -ve PDO and the wildcard of the onset of a grand solar minima. These are key ingredients

have you thought about this. no science behind this forecast, so you are out on a limb there. worst comes to worse, a repeat of 2008/2009 i think or one month of severe cold at least.

i dont see much atlantic at all, have you seen the teleconnections and cfs models which signal a very blocked atlantic. it has been signalled for several months and has not changed once.

[iand61]

Strong La Nina, Southerly tracking jety due to solar driven perturbation cycle [longterm 30+ years], -ve PDO and the wildcard of the onset of a grand solar minima. These are key ingredients

have you thought about this. no science behind this forecast, so you are out on a limb there. worst comes to worse, a repeat of 2008/2009 i think or one month of severe cold at least.

i dont see much atlantic at all, have you seen the teleconnections and cfs models which signal a very blocked atlantic. it has been signalled for several months and has not changed once.

Hi Snow lover, it was a meant a little tongue in cheek and I hope yourself and others who are predicting another cold winter are proved correct although it did get a little tedious by mid January last winter.

I love snow but after spending 2 of the coldest days of last winter outside trying to thaw out diesel trucks all i wanted was summer.

All of that said I to believe that something is changing with the weather and we are on the way back to the sort of winters i enjoyed as a child.

Ian

[Kentish Kiwi]

I completely agree with you on this one. I tend to ignore all newspaper Website's because they always come up with some silly story about freezing temperatures and widespread snow. I agree -20C is very cold, but not exactly severe or threatning (it's called winter!).

Wait, how is -20C not severe or threatening? If you're talking about the UK winter then it most certainly is both, obviously not so for Russia if that's what you were referring to.

First cold spell, probably late October, early November I think.

Your quite right, like tossing a coin, just because you tossed 2 heads in a row, doesn't mean the next is going to be tails. It's always 50/50 after each toss. It's a percentage reset.

I may be entirely wrong here but this is my understanding of applying theoretical probability to the situation. If statistically getting a cold winter as a opposed to a mild one is 50/50 (like tossing a coin), then three cold winters in a row is equivalent to 12.5% (0.5x0.5x0.5), which is obviously less than getting a single cold winter (50%) or two cold winters in a row (0.25%), so after two tosses of a heads (cold winter) you are more likely to get a tails (mild winter) simply due to the law of averages/probability even though each individual toss remains 50/50...? [On second thoughts it may be more complicated then that, with the use of tree diagrams and adding up the probability of getting three cold winters - 0.125 - and then dividing it by the probability of any combination of the three. Or something along those lines which I can't properly remember...]

Either way I don't think you can deny that getting three below average, or more particularly two severe, winters in a row is statistically very unlikely considering its only happened twice in the last century. The odds therefore are instantly stacked against winter 2010/11 being anything memorable, especially in terms of anything prolonged, however there is obviously more to it than just averages, and the state of the atmosphere should probably be looked at ahead of such figures (treat every situation on its own merits and all that).

The info that this is the strongest Nina since 1955 is definitely something to consider, not only because from what I've read 55/56 (and 54/55 to an extent) were significantly cold winters, but also because its so far the second strongest on record it has the potential to produce a bit of a wildcard winter (not disregarding its potential to be mild) to what we expect as we don't have much to compare to it historically.

[ZONE 51]

What do you think of this-

1 - Low solar activity/low sunspots +(at) Negative(easterly) QBO = Negative AO.

2 - Solar activity + Stratospheric Mechanisms influences the AO.

3 - La-Nina = Negative ENSO

4 - When North Europe has widespread snow cover + Reflective snow = Cooling of Atmosphere above it ,the air at Mid-latitudes becomes colder and denser, sinks towards the ground, the sinking air and lower temperatures at Mid-latitudes could cause a sudden knock of the AO into STRONG Negative state.

[john mac]

Looking forward to another season of weather watching, i must admitt i dont come on hear that often in the summer months as i find the winter waether much more interesting. I'm punting for a similar winter to last year, it seems as though we have been in a cooling trend in recent winters. One diference this year though is the leaves on trees are still quite green in my area, is it any different in other parts of the country?