Winter 2010/2011 Part 2

[Isolated Frost]

Looking forward to another season of weather watching, i must admitt i dont come on hear that often in the summer months as i find the winter waether much more interesting. I'm punting for a similar winter to last year, it seems as though we have been in a cooling trend in recent winters. One diference this year though is the leaves on trees are still quite green in my area, is it any different in other parts of the country?

Here in Durham, around half of the trees are red or orange, however, you can see the green ones slowly turning.

[chionomaniac]

Snow and cold rompers association?

I think you may have 1 letter wrong Mark! I think that that association may be found elsewhere on the internet.

[weathe20]

do you just laugh at people every time they do a long range forecast. it is a bit ignorant, you did this before in the other thread.

lets see your forecast then.....

you are really rude. he obviously made it up, as he said in the MO thread that he was new to all this, no need for the rudeness. what is wrong with doing a forecast that has been totally made up its a winter thread, if you dont like it then go away. not everyone on here is middle age you know and has the certain knowledge that others have, young people are members on here and i say good going to them!!!!

If he had said this is my dream winter forecast I wouldnt of bothered wasting my time reading it. This forum is continually being filled with worthless, pointless comments. Just like the one quoted.

If someone posts a forecast without any evidence or charts or science behind it I have every right to ask what his sources were for the forecast. Im here to learn to you know, and not here to read endless rubbish as I have already stated.

Edited October 9, 2010 by weathe20

[Neilsouth]

My forecast for the coming winter - mainly mild and wet, very limited frost and only a small chance of snow.

IanBrown , is that you?

We shall see but i highly doubt this forecast

[Methuselah]

IanBrown , is that you?

We shall see but i highly doubt this forecast

Parhaps we should 'highly doubt' all forecasts that go forward for four months??? They can't all be right...

[Mark Bayley]

I think you may have 1 letter wrong Mark! I think that that association may be found elsewhere on the internet.

I just noticed that this morning!:blush::lol:

[DeepSnow]

Looking forward to another season of weather watching, i must admitt i dont come on hear that often in the summer months as i find the winter waether much more interesting. I'm punting for a similar winter to last year, it seems as though we have been in a cooling trend in recent winters. One diference this year though is the leaves on trees are still quite green in my area, is it any different in other parts of the country?

Here most trees have some yellow or orange on them, others are completely red/orange, and the odd few have even lost most of the leaves! There is a wide mixture here!

Would i be right in saying it most likely won't be till next month, at least, that we see any proper cold here in the south/southwest?

Edited October 9, 2010 by Deepsnow

[blitzen]

This site appears to think that things will get colder for our neighbours quite soon

http://2012realorfiction.blogspot.com/

Edited October 9, 2010 by Blitzen

[kippure]

Just been looking at the archive winter of 1919-1920 weather patterns. Has anyone any info on that winter to hand.

[MR EXTREMES]

here we go again the snipes have started already and we not even had a ground frost and to snipe at steve murr which my add is one of the most respected posters on this site is totally unfounded.

everyone is entitled to an opion whether this goes against a senior forecaster or not,

anyway back to this winter well from what im reading nearly every site on the net is excited as me and most are fimly in favour of a cold winter,

although i agree not matching last winter but anything but blowtourch and id be very happy indeed with a colder snowy southern england 3 years in a row something were not used to in the last 15 years or so.

but i think cooler/colder winters will be common for awhile and if cycle 25 goes the way predicted then decades of colder winters could well be possible ice age though bit far fetched depends on how much cooler we get remember a 1.5c global drop would start the ball rolling.

[mcweather]

Just been looking at the archive winter of 1919-1920 weather patterns. Has anyone any info on that winter to hand.

Yes Kippure

Here are a few bits,

Nov 1919 saw an exceptional early burst of winter with heavy snow in scotland and minus 23.3 at Braemar on the 14th. On the same day the maximum in Carlisle was minus2.7 . 30CM of snow was reported on Dartmoor from a snowstorm on the 11th/12th. 42CM reported at Braemar stayed on the ground for the rest of the month.

CET OF 5.5 FOR DEC1919 5.2 FOR JAN 1920 and 6.0 FOR fEB 1920

Jan1920 was unremarkable and Feb 1920 dry and very mild. Snow returned in March 25cms in the Midlands on the 16th.

[Neilsouth]

Parhaps we should 'highly doubt' all forecasts that go forward for four months??? They can't all be right...

You're telling me that

[greybing]

Wait, how is -20C not severe or threatening? If you're talking about the UK winter then it most certainly is both, obviously not so for Russia if that's what you were referring to.

I may be entirely wrong here but this is my understanding of applying theoretical probability to the situation. If statistically getting a cold winter as a opposed to a mild one is 50/50 (like tossing a coin), then three cold winters in a row is equivalent to 12.5% (0.5x0.5x0.5), which is obviously less than getting a single cold winter (50%) or two cold winters in a row (0.25%), so after two tosses of a heads (cold winter) you are more likely to get a tails (mild winter) simply due to the law of averages/probability even though each individual toss remains 50/50...? [On second thoughts it may be more complicated then that, with the use of tree diagrams and adding up the probability of getting three cold winters - 0.125 - and then dividing it by the probability of any combination of the three. Or something along those lines which I can't properly remember...]

Either way I don't think you can deny that getting three below average, or more particularly two severe, winters in a row is statistically very unlikely considering its only happened twice in the last century. The odds therefore are instantly stacked against winter 2010/11 being anything memorable, especially in terms of anything prolonged, however there is obviously more to it than just averages, and the state of the atmosphere should probably be looked at ahead of such figures (treat every situation on its own merits and all that).

The info that this is the strongest Nina since 1955 is definitely something to consider, not only because from what I've read 55/56 (and 54/55 to an extent) were significantly cold winters, but also because its so far the second strongest on record it has the potential to produce a bit of a wildcard winter (not disregarding its potential to be mild) to what we expect as we don't have much to compare to it historically.

absolutely ,I second what you are saying

Edited October 9, 2010 by greybing

[AderynCoch]

1919 was the coldest autumn of the century, though the following winter was mild and nondescript. October and November were particularly cold, though there was also an exceptional early snowfall event in September (even on lower ground in some northern parts).

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/britweather.htm is your friend, kippure.

Is there any particular reason why 1919/20 has aroused your interest? Do you see analogues between 2010 and 1919?

[greybing]

If he had said this is my dream winter forecast I wouldnt of bothered wasting my time reading it. This forum is continually being filled with worthless, pointless comments. Just like the one quoted.

If someone posts a forecast without any evidence or charts or science behind it I have every right to ask what his sources were for the forecast. Im here to learn to you know, and not here to read endless rubbish as I have already stated.

here,here

[MR EXTREMES]

1919 was the coldest autumn of the century, though the following winter was mild and nondescript. October and November were particularly cold, though there was also an exceptional early snowfall event in September (even on lower ground in some northern parts).

http://www.personal....britweather.htm is your friend, kippure.

Is there any particular reason why 1919/20 has aroused your interest? Do you see analogues between 2010 and 1919?

yeah i reckon i can guess why he suggested because of the current solar minimum but id say this minimum is equal to 1919/20.

but dropping cycle 25 will be the exciting one if all goes to plan then we may well be using maunder minimum years maybe!...

[TonyH]

If he had said this is my dream winter forecast I wouldnt of bothered wasting my time reading it. This forum is continually being filled with worthless, pointless comments. Just like the one quoted.

If someone posts a forecast without any evidence or charts or science behind it I have every right to ask what his sources were for the forecast. Im here to learn to you know, and not here to read endless rubbish as I have already stated.

Sensible post, with which I tend to agree. Just a load of xxxxxxxx many of these 'forecasts'.

[Nick L]

If he had said this is my dream winter forecast I wouldnt of bothered wasting my time reading it. This forum is continually being filled with worthless, pointless comments. Just like the one quoted.

If someone posts a forecast without any evidence or charts or science behind it I have every right to ask what his sources were for the forecast. Im here to learn to you know, and not here to read endless rubbish as I have already stated.

Most sensible post of the thread! I am sick of seeing certain members blasting anyone for daring to question a forecast and the reasoning behind it. Perhaps we need a "dream winter forecast" thread?

The truth is nobody really knows what is going to happen over the next 6 months or so, if people want to have a go at predicting it then that's fine! But some basic reasoning needs to be applied, or just say "this is what I would like to happen".

[MR EXTREMES]

Most sensible post of the thread! I am sick of seeing certain members blasting anyone for daring to question a forecast and the reasoning behind it. Perhaps we need a "dream winter forecast" thread?

The truth is nobody really knows what is going to happen over the next 6 months or so, if people want to have a go at predicting it then that's fine! But some basic reasoning needs to be applied, or just say "this is what I would like to happen".

well forecasting is 50% guess work and 50% science.

i do not agree with positive weather solutions but do hold a huge amount of respect for the people that take there time to show why they think this winter could be cold.

GP and others are classic posters that give good valid information but this is not to take away that although charts and depth is not put into someones forecast dont mean they will be wrong.

if this was the case the we slate farmers alamac what ever its called would be worthless!...and they use different method.

i think this thread is indanger of fightening some of the lesser gifted weather nuts away and in my opion thats not fair and uncalled for.

this is the winter 2010/1011 thread and everyone is welcome to post a forecast weather it be heatwave or mega freeze each to there own.

theres nothing wrong with a little excitement im excited and will be dissapointed if this winter goes boobs up,

but hey its a bit of fun and im still in the opion this winter is following a trend of cooler colder winters.

and i agree with your post NICK L

Edited October 9, 2010 by badboy657

[Nick L]

well forecasting is 50% guess work and 50% science.

i do not agree with positive weather solutions but do hold a huge amount of respect for the people that take there time to show why they think this winter could be cold.

GP and others are classic posters that give good valid information but this is not to take away that although charts and depth is not put into someones forecast dont mean they will be wrong.

if this was the case the we slate farmers alamac what ever its called would be worthless!...and they use different method.

i think this thread is indanger of fightening some of the lesser gifted weather nuts away and in my opion thats not fair and uncalled for.

this is the winter 2010/1011 thread and everyone is welcome to post a forecast weather it be heatwave or mega freeze each to there own.

theres nothing wrong with a little excitement im excited and will be dissapointed if this winter goes boobs up,

but hey its a bit of fun and im still in the opion this winter is following a trend of cooler colder winters.

I agree everybody is entitled to post a forecast, but it would be nice if they could give a few reasons as to why they think it will be the coldest in x years, or mildest in y years. Or if they just said it's purely guesswork! Meteorology is a science.

I don't have a clue what it's going to be like this winter FWIW, all I know is that it doesn't seem to in any hurry to get here, still comfortably warm outside to be in a t-shirt. We want frosts =D

[Cymro]

I tend to feel a nother thread is needed for these so called dream forecasts. Because personally they ruin sensible debates, anybody can say anything but with no reason or science behind it it makes for a good time wasting and good posts get lost amongst fantasy. Posts.

[knocker]

Just been looking at the CFS 300 day forecast for London and the coldest month seems to be March with a brief cold spell in January. Not much likelyhood of snow and certainly not in Cornwall. Whoopee, I hope they are right but not holding my breath.

[kippure]

1919 was the coldest autumn of the century, though the following winter was mild and nondescript. October and November were particularly cold, though there was also an exceptional early snowfall event in September (even on lower ground in some northern parts).

http://www.personal....britweather.htm is your friend, kippure.

Is there any particular reason why 1919/20 has aroused your interest? Do you see analogues between 2010 and 1919?

While i was looking at ssts for 2003 they resembled 2009-2010. Thats what made me think we would get a severe winter 09/10. So i begun a troll through presure patterns for september to march. 1919 is nearly a carbon copy of today.

I havent much information on the hurricane season of 1919. But after the new year 1920 was a rather mild winter with a snowying period end of march 1920.

By my reasoning, when the hurricane season is over hp will be able to establish to our west and a repeat of last year is on the cards.

The reason i think we will have a cold winter is, the jet on a south ward track, low solar activity are ther main driving factors.

I see a cold first half of autumn like 1919 and a cold start and end to winter, Not like january feb march 1920.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I agree everybody is entitled to post a forecast, but it would be nice if they could give a few reasons as to why they think it will be the coldest in x years, or mildest in y years. Or if they just said it's purely guesswork! Meteorology is a science.

I don't have a clue what it's going to be like this winter FWIW, all I know is that it doesn't seem to in any hurry to get here, still comfortably warm outside to be in a t-shirt. We want frosts =D

Nick i see you are in Reading now, miss you in midlands thread, enjoy your snow down there! you'll see a damn sight more than I will see in the snowless NW midlands

[Snowyowl9]

Plenty of time for frosts look at last autumn a slow burner with november been wet mild and winds.

Just a few ground frosts,no air frost.