Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Winter 2010/2011 Part 2


Coast

Recommended Posts

Years that had a moderate La Nina i.e over -1.1 NDJ and DJF. CET next to it for DJF

2007-2008 5.6

1998-1999 5.4

1999-2000 5.4

1988-1989 6.5

1973-1974 5.4

1975-1976 5.2

1970-1971 4.4

1955-1956 2.9

The most similar to this years seem to be 98,73 which both came of the back of a strong El Nino.

55-56 and 70-71 where both negative NAO winters.

There are some similarities with the winter of 70-71.

2007-08 and 1999-2000 were both snowless for here. Although 1998-99 wasn't too bad.

Cheers for the info.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

thanks very much for that john, how about MEI?

MEI stands for Multivariate ENSO Index

Have a look at this link for more information:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/enso.mei_index.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

MEI stands for Multivariate ENSO Index

Have a look at this link for more information:

http://www.esrl.noaa....mei_index.html

Ah! thanks ben, so basically the mei corresponds to the strength of la nina/ el nino and everything that is influenced by it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

£90,000 TO BEAT WINTER CHAOS; - Jeez, will they never learn!

Apparently, 3 of Scotland's councils have clubbed together and are paying the Met Office £90,000 to provide them with a detailed forecast from October to April so that they can decide how much grit is needed for the roads. Eh? Surely the councils should be prepared for a bad winter regardless, considering the chaos on our roads last year with them running out of supplies. They reckon that they will receive a more specialised forecast for their areas when geographic and topographic differences are taken into consideration. Which, in turn, should let the authorities plan their gritting strategies better! So, depending on how you read it, are they reliant on a one of 6 month forecast? or will it be an ongoing set of forecasts which, knowing Scotland's weather, can change on a sixpence! It is not even winter yet and already they are trying to cut corners. I just hope they get their tax payers money's worth! :rolleyes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

How much grit could they get for £90000?

Just what people want to see their money being spent on in these times of savage cuts...

Probably enough to grit the M90 quite a few times that's for sure!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Sorry :o Looks like we won't get any really cold till november

i agree gradual cool down which id expect as we are in autumn,but before we start feeling a little let down in regards to a cold winter just remember last year wet windy mild november!!!!! look what happened in december absolutely there will be atleast 1 cold winter month.:drinks:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stalybridge, Eastern Greater Manchester @ 165 metres, 541 feet
  • Location: Stalybridge, Eastern Greater Manchester @ 165 metres, 541 feet

From the Met Office

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Oct 2010 to Monday 8 Nov 2010:

Generally changeable at first, especially in the north, with the best of any drier, brighter weather in the south and southwest. As the period evolves, the best brightness is expected to spread across the west of the country, with above average sunshine here. By contrast the east should see nearer normal values. In terms of rainfall, the north of the country is expected to be drier than would be typical for autumn, with perhaps higher rainfall towards the southeast. Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be well below average for the time of year, with overnight frost likely.

"Well below average?" hmmmm can we trust these guys from a .gov department? :whistling:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

From the Met Office

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Oct 2010 to Monday 8 Nov 2010:

Generally changeable at first, especially in the north, with the best of any drier, brighter weather in the south and southwest. As the period evolves, the best brightness is expected to spread across the west of the country, with above average sunshine here. By contrast the east should see nearer normal values. In terms of rainfall, the north of the country is expected to be drier than would be typical for autumn, with perhaps higher rainfall towards the southeast. Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be well below average for the time of year, with overnight frost likely.

"Well below average?" hmmmm can we trust these guys from a .gov department? :whistling:

of course we can! they are using a new computer prediction system. its called 'netweather'.........

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)

Wait, how is -20C not severe or threatening? If you're talking about the UK winter then it most certainly is both, obviously not so for Russia if that's what you were referring to.

I may be entirely wrong here but this is my understanding of applying theoretical probability to the situation. If statistically getting a cold winter as a opposed to a mild one is 50/50 (like tossing a coin), then three cold winters in a row is equivalent to 12.5% (0.5x0.5x0.5), which is obviously less than getting a single cold winter (50%) or two cold winters in a row (0.25%), so after two tosses of a heads (cold winter) you are more likely to get a tails (mild winter) simply due to the law of averages/probability even though each individual toss remains 50/50...? [On second thoughts it may be more complicated then that, with the use of tree diagrams and adding up the probability of getting three cold winters - 0.125 - and then dividing it by the probability of any combination of the three. Or something along those lines which I can't properly remember...]

Either way I don't think you can deny that getting three below average, or more particularly two severe, winters in a row is statistically very unlikely considering its only happened twice in the last century. The odds therefore are instantly stacked against winter 2010/11 being anything memorable, especially in terms of anything prolonged, however there is obviously more to it than just averages, and the state of the atmosphere should probably be looked at ahead of such figures (treat every situation on its own merits and all that).

The info that this is the strongest Nina since 1955 is definitely something to consider, not only because from what I've read 55/56 (and 54/55 to an extent) were significantly cold winters, but also because its so far the second strongest on record it has the potential to produce a bit of a wildcard winter (not disregarding its potential to be mild) to what we expect as we don't have much to compare to it historically.

If that theory was correct, then the chances of so many mild winters in a row in the 1990s / early 2000s, would be like winning the lottery. Barring a few outliers, then its clear to see winters are cyclic. At this point in time I would say the odds, even without looking at any of the current evidence, are significantly less than 50/50 in favour of another colder than average winter. If the right ingriedients are present then the chances of a severe winter are high.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

£90,000 TO BEAT WINTER CHAOS; - Jeez, will they never learn!

Apparently, 3 of Scotland's councils have clubbed together and are paying the Met Office £90,000 to provide them with a detailed forecast from October to April so that they can decide how much grit is needed for the roads. Eh? Surely the councils should be prepared for a bad winter regardless, considering the chaos on our roads last year with them running out of supplies. They reckon that they will receive a more specialised forecast for their areas when geographic and topographic differences are taken into consideration. Which, in turn, should let the authorities plan their gritting strategies better! So, depending on how you read it, are they reliant on a one of 6 month forecast? or will it be an ongoing set of forecasts which, knowing Scotland's weather, can change on a sixpence! It is not even winter yet and already they are trying to cut corners. I just hope they get their tax payers money's worth! :rolleyes:

They should have kept £89,900 in the bank account, sourced a supplier who could deliver the grit on 7 days notice and bought a six month access to NetWeather Extra. Job done :rofl:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

They should have kept £89,900 in the bank account, sourced a supplier who could deliver the grit on 7 days notice and bought a six month access to NetWeather Extra. Job done :rofl:

Or......They could follow Camden Council's example!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1318765/As-Arctic-winter-looms-council-hands-2-000-spades-tells-residents-dig-snows.html#ixzz11p6pjwKh

Edited by Blitzen
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

With all the talk on the model thread of the possibility of a deep cold pool developing over Russia, perhaps the Russians were correct in forecasting a severe winter. However, I thought that this prediction was a bit surprising coming from them. Anyone remember last year when 1 meter of unforecasted snow was dumped overnight and brought the city of Moscow to a standstill the next day? Putin was furious and ordered all of the senior meteorologists to be fired. I suppose it is better to prepare for the worst, but Putin has apparently spent a lot of money on defugging all the air-conditioning vents after the summer heat, so that Muscovites will not encounter any central heating problems if the winter turns bad. I think I would have kept my head down.

Edited by Blitzen
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

deep snow winter 2010

With all the talk on the model thread of the possibility of a deep cold pool developing over Russia, perhaps the Russians were correct in forecasting a severe winter. However, I thought that this prediction was a bit surprising coming from them. Anyone remember last year when 1 meter of unforecasted snow was dumped overnight and brought the city of Moscow to a standstill the next day? Putin was furious and ordered all of the senior meteorologists to be fired. I suppose it is better to prepare for the worst, but Putin has apparently spent a lot of money on defugging all the air-conditioning vents after the summer heat, so that Muscovites will not encounter any central heating problems if the winter turns bad. I think I would have kept my head down.

Amazing that , just think if London got that amount! heres a photo..found online.

post-11361-091229800 1286900071_thumb.pn

Edited by nimbilus
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Take a look at these LRF what do you think?WSI -a weather channel company

Maison Jaune Blog-LRF europe-french alps-chamonix 2010/11 :o

Quote "As we head into the autumn season, most of the main climate drivers are suggesting that a return to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will occur. This would be associated with above-normal temperatures across Scandinavia and the northern mainland, with below-normal temperatures across the South. By November, the combination of the warm Atlantic and cold Pacific suggest that the below-normal temperatures will become more widespread. However, there is uncertainty in the forecast given the recent multi-year persistence of the negative phase of the NAO. While our strongest climate signals indicate that the NAO will trend towards more positive values, we are somewhat concerned that the persistence of the negative NAO may continue through the autumn, which would result in cooler temperatures across much of Scandinavia, UK, and the northern mainland,†said WSI Chief Meteorologist, Dr. Todd Crawford.

just what i think 8)( the bolded area ive highlighted)

Edited by nimbilus
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull

Its ok posting links etc and extracts from news papers and sources that have no credibility at all.

Its just a guessing game and media hype. There is some forecasters on here, that like to predict weather patterns and behaviour more than 3-4 weeks too 3 months out, I for one do not, I like most on here stick to the short term, its whats important, any significant changes short term, 9 times out of 10 have a vast input as we go into the long term.

A lot of pople who forecast long term weather patterns or events, take a wild guess, a worst case scenario being the extreme and a not so extreme one just to cover their ass when they get it wrong.

It may or may not be a cold winter. THE ECMWF does show T192 a northerly pushing through with some deep pools of cold building over Russia, at the moment we have blocking with the HP in place stopping weather systems off the Atlantic pushing through and dominating our weather. As it stands, if patterns continue the way they are now, yes there is an increasing chance that this winter may have the same if not "more extreme elements and conditions to that of our previous winter". But that really is a big IF, enjoy the next few weeks of autmn into MID November, then we should know what pattern we are establishing.

I don't really post too often now, due to a number of factors, family and work commitments etc, but I'll do my best to be here over the winter period.

Enjoy the weather guys,

Regards

Lewis

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

Take a look at these LRF what do you think?WSI -a weather channel company

Maison Jaune Blog-LRF europe-french alps-chamonix 2010/11 :o

Quote "As we head into the autumn season, most of the main climate drivers are suggesting that a return to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will occur. This would be associated with above-normal temperatures across Scandinavia and the northern mainland, with below-normal temperatures across the South. By November, the combination of the warm Atlantic and cold Pacific suggest that the below-normal temperatures will become more widespread. However, there is uncertainty in the forecast given the recent multi-year persistence of the negative phase of the NAO. While our strongest climate signals indicate that the NAO will trend towards more positive values, we are somewhat concerned that the persistence of the negative NAO may continue through the autumn, which would result in cooler temperatures across much of Scandinavia, UK, and the northern mainland,†said WSI Chief Meteorologist, Dr. Todd Crawford.

just what i think 8)( the bolded area ive highlighted)

I'd take issue with a lot of the La Nina years listed on the second link. For instance the winter of 1994-1995 was actually a weak to moderate El Nino winter;

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/January.95.anomaly.gif

And was mild with a positive NAO.

A weak La Nina then developed through the spring and summer of 1995;

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/June.95.anomaly.gif

Becoming weak to moderate by winter 95-96, which was a very cold across Europe;

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/January.96.anomaly.gif

Anyway, the general thrust of what these links seem to be saying is that strong La Nina's seem to coincide with mild European winters, which we all know. There-fore its a reasonable assumption to say the winter of 2010-2011 will be mild with a positive NAO.

Except looking at the strong La Nina winters of 1916-1917, 1917-1918, 1954-1955 and 1955-1956 tells us that its not always as straight forward as this. ;)

Edited by Gavin P
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Every year with out fail the daily mail have their ice age alert out :p

Sounds better then it could be cold or it might not be.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs

Sounds better then it could be cold or it might not be.

Yes but we should never believe everything in the papers, they want a good readership therefore will put anything in there to attract new readers. I'm not saying it won't happen, but for them to forcast the weather for feburary and January let alone december so early on with sch vague points proves that its not something I'de personally get my hopes up over.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

PWS is just a joke!

It only acts to serve the newspaper dross and is not a credible forecasting agency.

Has anyone checked out their website whistling.gif They even offer a wedding day weather prediction service (many months in advance)! I hope nobody pays for this............what a waste of money, it is almost criminal really!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...