Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Winter
IGNORED

Hurricane Richard


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 20
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

    The NHC have said in their latest forecast they're not too sure on the track after 3 days. Possibility of the track being shifted northwards which would take it towards the Yucutan channel.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    The globals are slowly coming on board now, with this entering the GOM, ECM shows a small TS/Hurricane hitting LA region, GFS is struggling still though.

    The Tropical models however are firming up nicely on this entering the GOM towards the US, with the main ones having him reaching Major status.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Looks like TS Richard to me going by the latest recon. They have made special mention of finding TS winds.

    MAX FL WIND 40 KT E QUAD 12:25:00Z

    SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT

    MAX FL TEMP 24 C 025 / 36 NM FROM FL CNTR

    Convection East Quad

    Max SWS 37kts east quad 12:25:35Z

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    And indeed NHC upgrade him, he's now forecast to hit Mexico as an 80kt hurricane, before coming back out into the GOM.

    AIRCRAFT DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED

    PEAK FLIGHT WINDS OF 40 KT...RELIABLE SFMR VALUES OF 37 KT...AND A

    MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1006 MB. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...THIS

    SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF

    35 KT. THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF INCREASING MASS

    OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL SEEN FARTHER TO THE

    SOUTHWEST IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. OVERALL...THE

    CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...WITH

    MANY CURVED BANDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

    One of only 3 storms in the Atlantic to recieve an R name. Incedentally, the previous two were both retired and major hurricanes (Roxanne and Rita).

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Richard has not strengthened since yesterday and remains a 35kt tropical storm as it drifts slowly westwards. Moderate shear and dry air have given Richard an elongated look, but he is expected to eventually intensify as shear eases over the next day or two. Models bring Richard to minimal hurricane status, but Richard needs to stay away from northern Honduras for this to happen. If the track shifts any further south, Richard will have signifcantly less time over water.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Shear has eased over Richard and the storm has intensified to 55kts. Banding features have developed and the storm is much more circular. There are no signs of an eye at present, but Richard is expected to become a hurricane just off the north coast of Honduras. The further north Richard goes, the stronger it could get. Any southward movement will increase land interaction and cap any further intensity gains. Richard is expected to go on to hit the Yucatan, weaken to a tropical depression then dissipate in high shear in the Bay Of Campeche.

    post-1820-042594800 1287864644_thumb.jpg

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Richard has strengthened decently today, whilst passing over the Bay Islands. Intensity has risen to 75kts, and a rugged eye has formed. Richard could become a cat 2 before making landfall in Belize tomorrow, where damaging winds and heavy rains will occur. Richard has already delivered flooding rains to Honduras, who really don't need anymore rain as Tropical cyclones Matthew, Nicole and Paula have already drenched the country. Richard will then dissipate over the Bay Of Campeche in high shear, if land interaction doesn't do this first.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

    Eye has appeared in the last hour or two and the presentation on satellite looks very good. I'd estimate Richard has winds of 90-100mph, and we should have an update within the next 15 minutes.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Richard has peaked at 80kts, and is now making landfall at this strength in Belize.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Richard has emerged into the Bay Of Campeche in a very weakened state. Intensity is at 25kts. There is very little convection near the LLC, and therefore Richard no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone. Re-generation is not expected as the remnant low moves to the north, primarily due to high shear but also abundant dry air.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

    My name sake was a bit of a let down

    THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON RICHARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE

    REMNANTS OF RICHARD...THE LOW...NOT THE FORECASTER...CAN BE FOUND

    IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...

    UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 26/1500Z 20.4N 93.1W 25 KT

    12HR VT 27/0000Z 21.6N 93.8W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    24HR VT 27/1200Z 23.2N 94.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    36HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

    $$

    FORECASTER PASCH

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    At least he made hurricane status :) . Both of my name sakes (only occured twice) have been mere tropical storms. And you're name sake in the East Pacific last year didn't do too badly, lol

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

    aye true,

    do you think this about wraps things up for the Atlantic this year of we might get one like we did last November name escapes me.

    just seen the invest's thread :lol:

    fast edit

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    LOL- yes, there is some potential out there at the moment. The storm you are thinking of from November last year was Ida- surprised many after the quiet season.

    I think we could have another couple at least, Caribbean waters are still plenty warm enough and the Cape Verde waves just don't seem to want to completely die off as the waters in this region are much warmer than normal. With La Nina in play, we may even get an off season December storm.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

    LOL- yes, there is some potential out there at the moment. The storm you are thinking of from November last year was Ida- surprised many after the quiet season.

    I think we could have another couple at least, Caribbean waters are still plenty warm enough and the Cape Verde waves just don't seem to want to completely die off as the waters in this region are much warmer than normal. With La Nina in play, we may even get an off season December storm.

    I want to get a December January storm just for the hell of it, I know its rare.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...