Hurricane Richard

[Cookie]

This is the one I've been waiting for as if it becomes a tropical storm, It will become tropical storm Richard

[Paranoid]

The NHC have said in their latest forecast they're not too sure on the track after 3 days. Possibility of the track being shifted northwards which would take it towards the Yucutan channel.

[Iceberg]

The globals are slowly coming on board now, with this entering the GOM, ECM shows a small TS/Hurricane hitting LA region, GFS is struggling still though.

The Tropical models however are firming up nicely on this entering the GOM towards the US, with the main ones having him reaching Major status.

[Iceberg]

Looks like TS Richard to me going by the latest recon. They have made special mention of finding TS winds.

MAX FL WIND 40 KT E QUAD 12:25:00Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT

MAX FL TEMP 24 C 025 / 36 NM FROM FL CNTR

Convection East Quad

Max SWS 37kts east quad 12:25:35Z

[Iceberg]

And indeed NHC upgrade him, he's now forecast to hit Mexico as an 80kt hurricane, before coming back out into the GOM.

AIRCRAFT DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED

PEAK FLIGHT WINDS OF 40 KT...RELIABLE SFMR VALUES OF 37 KT...AND A

MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1006 MB. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...THIS

SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF

35 KT. THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF INCREASING MASS

OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL SEEN FARTHER TO THE

SOUTHWEST IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. OVERALL...THE

CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...WITH

MANY CURVED BANDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

[Paranoid]

One of only 3 storms in the Atlantic to recieve an R name. Incedentally, the previous two were both retired and major hurricanes (Roxanne and Rita).

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Richard has not strengthened since yesterday and remains a 35kt tropical storm as it drifts slowly westwards. Moderate shear and dry air have given Richard an elongated look, but he is expected to eventually intensify as shear eases over the next day or two. Models bring Richard to minimal hurricane status, but Richard needs to stay away from northern Honduras for this to happen. If the track shifts any further south, Richard will have signifcantly less time over water.

[Somerset Squall]

Shear has eased over Richard and the storm has intensified to 55kts. Banding features have developed and the storm is much more circular. There are no signs of an eye at present, but Richard is expected to become a hurricane just off the north coast of Honduras. The further north Richard goes, the stronger it could get. Any southward movement will increase land interaction and cap any further intensity gains. Richard is expected to go on to hit the Yucatan, weaken to a tropical depression then dissipate in high shear in the Bay Of Campeche.

[Cookie]

trying to become a hurricane

[Cookie]

now Hurricane Richard

[Somerset Squall]

Richard has strengthened decently today, whilst passing over the Bay Islands. Intensity has risen to 75kts, and a rugged eye has formed. Richard could become a cat 2 before making landfall in Belize tomorrow, where damaging winds and heavy rains will occur. Richard has already delivered flooding rains to Honduras, who really don't need anymore rain as Tropical cyclones Matthew, Nicole and Paula have already drenched the country. Richard will then dissipate over the Bay Of Campeche in high shear, if land interaction doesn't do this first.

[Cookie]

[Paranoid]

Eye has appeared in the last hour or two and the presentation on satellite looks very good. I'd estimate Richard has winds of 90-100mph, and we should have an update within the next 15 minutes.

[Somerset Squall]

Richard has peaked at 80kts, and is now making landfall at this strength in Belize.

[Somerset Squall]

Richard has emerged into the Bay Of Campeche in a very weakened state. Intensity is at 25kts. There is very little convection near the LLC, and therefore Richard no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone. Re-generation is not expected as the remnant low moves to the north, primarily due to high shear but also abundant dry air.

[Cookie]

My name sake was a bit of a let down

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON RICHARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE

REMNANTS OF RICHARD...THE LOW...NOT THE FORECASTER...CAN BE FOUND

IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...

UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 20.4N 93.1W 25 KT

12HR VT 27/0000Z 21.6N 93.8W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24HR VT 27/1200Z 23.2N 94.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[Somerset Squall]

At least he made hurricane status . Both of my name sakes (only occured twice) have been mere tropical storms. And you're name sake in the East Pacific last year didn't do too badly, lol

[Cookie]

aye true,

do you think this about wraps things up for the Atlantic this year of we might get one like we did last November name escapes me.

just seen the invest's thread :lol:

fast edit

[Somerset Squall]

LOL- yes, there is some potential out there at the moment. The storm you are thinking of from November last year was Ida- surprised many after the quiet season.

I think we could have another couple at least, Caribbean waters are still plenty warm enough and the Cape Verde waves just don't seem to want to completely die off as the waters in this region are much warmer than normal. With La Nina in play, we may even get an off season December storm.

[Cookie]

LOL- yes, there is some potential out there at the moment. The storm you are thinking of from November last year was Ida- surprised many after the quiet season.

I think we could have another couple at least, Caribbean waters are still plenty warm enough and the Cape Verde waves just don't seem to want to completely die off as the waters in this region are much warmer than normal. With La Nina in play, we may even get an off season December storm.

I want to get a December January storm just for the hell of it, I know its rare.