High Risk - 26.10.10

[Paul Sherman]

60% Damaging Wind Risk :blink: Also 15% for Strong Tornadoes makes this one of the most Potent Fall Season events, dont know how many Chasers will be Streaming but thios could be one to watch

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0106 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF INDIANA AND WRN

OH...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN IL...WRN AND NRN

KY...INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI AND CNTRL OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS/TN/OH

VALLEYS...GREAT LAKES AND APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...

A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER MN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN

RAPIDLY AS AN INTENSE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND 110 KT

MIDLEVEL JET MAX EJECT NEWD OUT OF THE MID MS VALLEY. AT THE

SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MN/WI BORDER SWD

THROUGH CENTRAL IL AND INTO NRN AR AT 12Z...MOVING RAPIDLY EWD

ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO THE WRN PA BORDER BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THE

FRONT...BROAD SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL

MOISTURE NWD WITH A 70 KT LOW LEVEL JET.

--- AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING

WIND AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES EXPECTED EARLY TODAY ---

...MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...LOWER GREAT LAKES...TN

VALLEY...

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM

SRN WI INTO CNTRL IL AND SERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG

WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE...FAVORING EITHER A

SQUALL LINE OR QLCS STORM MODE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EWD...MODEL

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECONDARY PLUME OF LOW LEVEL

MOISTURE...CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH MID TO UPPER

60S DEWPOINTS...WILL SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD

FRONT/SQUALL LINE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES

INDICATE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS PRECEDING

THE FRONT FROM WRN KY...SRN AND CNTRL INDIANA INTO WRN OH. EFFECTIVE

SRH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 400-500 M2/S2 AND BUNKERS MOTIONS OVER 60

KTS SUGGEST A FEW LONG LIVED AND POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES MAY

OCCUR. THE MOST INTENSE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE IN

COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS

NWD...ALTHOUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE

RAPIDLY NEWD WITH A WIND THREAT AS FAR N AS NY.

FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT...STRONG SHEAR AND MARGINAL

INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER A VERY LARGE AREA FROM THE LOWER MS

VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THEREFORE...EPISODES OF SEVERE

WIND...HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT

WHICH WILL GENERALLY EXTEND FROM MS/AL INTO THE APPALACHIANS.

Paul Sherman

[Gorky]

I don't imagine this is really a chaseable setup. 60mph storm motions through questionable terrain is difficult, but about doable with discrete cells (just position and let the storm come to you). This seems like it's going to be less discrete and more raging squall line with embedded mesocyclones surrounded by rain. Either way it's going to be very dangerous. One aspect that I know a few chasers are picking up on are the winds across the Great Lakes the possible high waves and storm surge battering coastal areas. Just another impressive part of what is a pretty multifaceted system.

[CardiffStorm]

Yeah, I think anything that does or probably already has formed will be completely rain wrapped and moving at such speed it will be extremely dangerous. There are a couple of chaers out there and live streaming on chaser.tv and others.

Just looking at twitter and there are some reports of possible tornado damage in Wisconsin, there are tornado warnings everywhere and a couple are PDS.

Take cover if your in the Midwest.

[Gorky]

Decided to leave work early to watch this unfold and there are already 19 Tor warnings and it's only 10:30am stateside... Yeesh!

[Mesoscale]

Not much lightning being recorded with these storms just very strong striaght line winds, one person recorded a wind gust of 79MPH north west of Cincinnati, Ohio. Nashville, Tennesse got hit hard aswell. Pretty dangerous day out there today with very heavy rainfall obscuring any visual of any tornado. Drains are getting blocked because of all the autumn leaves falling/blowing off the trees and blocking drains.

[The watcher]

My friend from Michigan just told me about the threat t30 minutes ago, although she's in Traverse City Michigan and the Squall line past her about 1hr ago. No instances this time, but I've already warned her of rapid shower development happening to her South that could see Thunderstorms (maybe severe) develop this afternoon, but she might just be too far West to see anything as they will push ENE along with the front.

Edit, she's in the slight risk area quite a bit north from the moderate and high risk areas I just seen in the pic....so yeah. Warning her of a chance of some Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening was about right.

[Mesoscale]

Very strong storms are developing in Alabama and Tennessee