Hurricane Tomas

[AderynCoch]

Back up to Category 1:

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...18.1N 74.9W

ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA

ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

The centre of the circulation is just passing the southwestern tip of Haiti: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

Movement through the Windward Passage should delay weakening.

[AderynCoch]

...CENTER OF TOMAS NOW PASSING BETWEEN HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN

CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...19.1N 74.4W

ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA

ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM WNW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

Category 2 is forecast by 24 hours, but Tomas is accelerating and should have cleared Haiti by then. Bad news for the Turks & Caicos Islands though.

[Somerset Squall]

NHC forecast a new peak of 90kts (the maximum intensity of Tomas so far is 85kts), but only if the LLC doesn't intereact too much with the mountains of Haiti. According to the NHC wind probabilities for Tomas, the hurricane has a 15% chance of becoming a cat 3 major hurricane, so Tomas is a significant threat to the southeastern Bahamas as well as Haiti and eastern Cuba. Current intensity is 75kts, so should make cat 2 again at least soon.

[masheeuk]

I noticed that for the third time tomas has been upgaded to a cat1 hurricane.

Can anyone say how often a depression keeps going and is re-categorised this many times.