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Methane Gas And Climate Change


jethro

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Bit of a problem really not reading the whole paper but the authors state that the hydrate dissociation leading to these gas escape events, may have occurred at peak glacial periods due to depressurization accompanying sea level lowering. As far as I know at the last glaciation the sea level was 90m lower than it is now, that's taking into account isostasy, but we don't know the depth of the hydrates. I wouldn't have thought warming post glaciation would account for it although it did take a few centuries for the sea levels to reach roughly current levels as the climate was about 1-3 degrees warmer than it is today and that was roughly between 5000BC and 3000BC. Need S.Ss take on this me thinks.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'm stuck with my 'Boyles law understanding of things so increased temp would substitue for lowering pressure?

i.e if lower pressure wasn't the job then a rapid temp increase without a balanced pressure increase would do the same job?

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Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl

Sorry folks. Been caught up with heavy snow and lots if associated work chaos.

Will return to methane discussion as soon as I can.

SS

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Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl

http://www.wmo.int/p...G_bull_6_en.pdf

A very timely release, prior to Cancun, from the World Meteorology Organisation regarding methane from the wetlands/permafrost.

I wonder if S.S. has a take on it and it's timing (kinda opposite of 'climate-gate'?)

Not had a chance to go through in detail, but it worries me the author does not know the diffence between ppb and mole fraction. Quote 'CH4 mole fraction (ppb)' in graphs What? ppb is parts per billion; i.e. 200 ppb = 200 of one for 1 billion of another, thus 200 ppb =200/(1000000000+200) = mole fraction. mole fraction X100 = mole%. Numpty - and these people are inflencing policy?

Apparently, since 1985, CH4 has increased from 0.00016% of air to 0.00018% a huge increase of 0.00002% (surpised they can measure this with any accuracy). Put this in perspective. This is sweet FA in terms of the total heat capacity of a gas; i.e. the amount of 'heat' energy that is needed to raise the temperature (Joules per unit kelvin).

I get the impression that many climate modellers lack a basic understanding of thermodynamics. That worries me.

SS

I'm stuck with my 'Boyles law understanding of things so increased temp would substitue for lowering pressure?

i.e if lower pressure wasn't the job then a rapid temp increase without a balanced pressure increase would do the same job?

Boyles law (double the volume and you half the pressure/to double the pressure you need to halve the volume) is a good rule of thumb at atmospheric pressures where gases are almost 'ideal', i.e. you don't need to take into account compressibility, z.

z will influence things thus PV = znRT is best for systems significantly greater than 1 atm.

But yes, you're right - you need a rapid T increase without P increase or a rapid P decrease without T decrease to put hydrates in danger...

Bit of a problem really not reading the whole paper but the authors state that the hydrate dissociation leading to these gas escape events, may have occurred at peak glacial periods due to depressurization accompanying sea level lowering. As far as I know at the last glaciation the sea level was 90m lower than it is now, that's taking into account isostasy, but we don't know the depth of the hydrates. I wouldn't have thought warming post glaciation would account for it although it did take a few centuries for the sea levels to reach roughly current levels as the climate was about 1-3 degrees warmer than it is today and that was roughly between 5000BC and 3000BC. Need S.Ss take on this me thinks.

Yes, big sea level changes required - on the order of 100m before any hydrate worries would be the rule of thumb.

That is not happening any time soon.

Will be back to continue the story when I get the chance.

Cheers,

SS

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Posted
  • Location: Glossop
  • Location: Glossop

Apparently, since 1985, CH4 has increased from 0.00016% of air to 0.00018% a huge increase of 0.00002% (surpised they can measure this with any accuracy). Put this in perspective. This is sweet FA in terms of the total heat capacity of a gas; i.e. the amount of 'heat' energy that is needed to raise the temperature (Joules per unit kelvin).

I get the impression that many climate modellers lack a basic understanding of thermodynamics. That worries me.

SS

I think you are stuggling with percentages there. You really should know that in low concentration radiatively active gases such as methane can have a significant impact on the radiation budget. Modern methods of measuring atmospheric methane are able to detect changes of 0.1ppbv.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I think you are stuggling with percentages there. You really should know that in low concentration radiatively active gases such as methane can have a significant impact on the radiation budget. Modern methods of measuring atmospheric methane are able to detect changes of 0.1ppbv.

Is this why Methane is 23 times more potent than CO2?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

thanks cloudman!

Just like the planet I'm becoming inundated with methane (papers and facts that is.......but then I did have sprouts yeaterday!!)

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  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

thanks cloudman!

Just like the planet I'm becoming inundated with methane (papers and facts that is.......but then I did have sprouts yeaterday!!)

I knew that somebody farted in here...

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8437703.stm

As we know , we had better keep an eye on these deposits esp. if we're content to see the Arctic 'ice free' over summer months?

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

http://news.bbc.co.u...ech/8437703.stm

As we know , we had better keep an eye on these deposits esp. if we're content to see the Arctic 'ice free' over summer months?

Right, as credible as all this global warming science is - it is also fast becoming irrelevant. There are far bigger issues at stake for people in the short-term:-

http://hozturner.blo...ge-there-i.html

Edited by PersianPaladin
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

How much of that gas reaches the surface?

I thought the Article pointed out how far above 'background levels' the methane is over the ocean there?????

EDIT: Yup;

"He said that methane measured in the atmosphere around the region is 100 times higher than normal background levels, and in some cases 1,000 times higher."

so quite a bit eh? They have talked in the past about it 'bubbling' out so no chance of it being dissolved before it reaches the surface? Remember this was land before the end of the last ice age (permafrost like the land) but was submerged with the sea level hikes back then so it is a very 'shallow' deposit (unlike the clathrates).

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

I thought the Article pointed out how far above 'background levels' the methane is over the ocean there?????

EDIT: Yup;

"He said that methane measured in the atmosphere around the region is 100 times higher than normal background levels, and in some cases 1,000 times higher."

so quite a bit eh? They have talked in the past about it 'bubbling' out so no chance of it being dissolved before it reaches the surface? Remember this was land before the end of the last ice age (permafrost like the land) but was submerged with the sea level hikes back then so it is a very 'shallow' deposit (unlike the clathrates).

IF those clathrates are all released at once, you can kiss goodbye to all life on planet earth (except the hardiest bacteria).

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  • 7 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

http://www.energy-enviro.fi/index.php?PAGE=3&NODE_ID=5&LANG=1&ID=3782

Looks like we'll have more data to mull over early next year.

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

IF those clathrates are all released at once, you can kiss goodbye to all life on planet earth (except the hardiest bacteria).

Yeah, and if the iron in the Earth's core solidify's we can say goodbye to most of life on Earth, too. If the sun explodes it's pretty much curtains. The moon might fall into the Earth's gravity well at the slightest nudge from a passing (large) asteroid. I am sick and tired of people airing risks that are so unlikely that we might as well say that Santa is the embodiment of Satan (yes it's an anagram) hell-bent on killing our children that really aren't our children since our children have been misplaced by the lizard order of illuminati.

My advice to you, seriously, is to *really* learn the law of large numbers. Google will help you.Maybe Bing will too. Yahoo almost certainly will do. In any respect, start with the facts.

http://www.energy-en...&LANG=1&ID=3782

Looks like we'll have more data to mull over early next year.

Well, yes. Data is accumulated year after year. So what?

Edited by Sparticle
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Well, yes. Data is accumulated year after year. So what?

You seemed to have missed the past 6 years? There seems to be a 'trend' developing and , sadly, we don't have the 30yrs to wait to confirm whether it is a trend or not.

As such these kind folk, and their assoc.s, have been monitoring the 'key' areas of the Siberian shelf sea to see if both dissolved methane in the sea water is on the rise and ,more worrying (for some?) in the air above.

The snow left at a record pace this spring in that neck of the woods and the sea ice pulled back earlier than ever (why so many tankers are doing the 'China run') so the shallow sea have had more opportunity this year (than ever before?) to warm and mix. If this is messing with the upper horizons of the permafrost below then we also run the risk of 'pressure de-gassing' from any clathrates crushed below as the weight above reduces.

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'm sure the timescales we use for 'climate' are around 30yrs but is a 'gas leak' climate? I'm glad I'm not sharing a house with you Spark's old boy!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

I'm sure the timescales we use for 'climate' are around 30yrs but is a 'gas leak' climate? I'm glad I'm not sharing a house with you Spark's old boy!!!

I'm not sure of what length we'd measure the deviation in climate. I'd go for 100k years since the evidence suggests that both minima and maxima occur over such timespans - ie depths of an ice-age to it's inverse (last warm period 140k, 240k, 340k years ago - what does that series suggest? 40k overdue a warm period, perhaps?)

Also given that the variation over such timespans is about +/-5.5C (-+3C..-9C), I'd say, given that we are ~+2C, today, and given that the apparent maximum is ~+3C, normalising (middling the series) for a variance of ~+/-5.5C (ie subtracting 3.5C), I'd say we are currently ~-1.5C from where we should expect to be today - ie still 1.5C warming to go before we'd say 100% certain outside of the (very) very long term climate variation. Of course, scientific endeavours try to be at the 95% mark, which, more or less, puts us on that extreme today (within, say ~0.5C error). Given the Vostok series, this gives very rational concerns of an impending collapse in temperature possibly within our lifetimes.

This, of course, is a cigarette and coffee calculation, but it should demonstrate that 7 years really is just a (smelly) fart in the wind. Every methane-type pun intended.

Edited by Sparticle
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Seeing as the Arcticle I linked to is now 'mainstream' it is interesting that they are all highlighting that this was a voyage that was organised at 'short notice' ( not a clumbsy translation as I initially wondered?) because of the scale of the leaks the prof found out there.....ho hum, maybe they should have waited as Spark's see's no reason for any 'snap decisions'....plenty of time to see if a 'trend develops'.....unless you're a gas man and there's a gas leak (of course!- remember folks , you stay safe and , if you smell gas then ring it in-better a false alarm than a boom,boom)

As for the other items just search on

Russian, U.S. scientists set to study methane release in Arctic (cut an' paste)

"Professor Semiletov has been studying methane seepage in the region for the last 15 years, and leads the International Siberian Shelf Study (ISSS), which has launched a number of expeditions to the Arctic Ocean.

"The studies are reaching a more serious level. Many Russian and U.S. universities have joined the [iSSS] program bringing in the most advanced equipment which will allow us to study the structure of underwater permafrost with more precision," Semiletov said."

15yrs eh? , more like a trend? As the USSR collapsed and became very 'capitalist' the leaks of methane that used to show up on global methane levels dropped off (odd what 'profit' drives in a comp) and these new increases were first noted. The gas comp. did extensive checks (because' they might be losing money) but found no leaks......wonder where the 'uptick' in global methane came from eh?

Anyhoo's , we'll find out in the new year just what the prognosis is.

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Maybe they should have waited as Spark's see's no reason for any 'snap decisions'....plenty of time to see if a 'trend develops'.....unless you're a gas man and there's a gas leak (of course!- remember folks , you stay safe and , if you smell gas then ring it in-better a false alarm than a boom,boom

If there's a gas-leak in your home it is not a trend it is a step-change in the air in your home - ie not combustible to highly combustible. Are you seriously suggesting that this is what is going on in the environment? I could understand the analogy if we reported a massive +5C anomaly in global climate over a very small amount of time.

Perhaps I have misread the AGW dogma: I thought it was small but incrementing changes over time lead to a step-change? Perhaps the tack needs to change since the wind of small incrementing change doesn't look quite as strong as it did in the late 1990's and early 2000's having to rely on statistical regression (and pointing with glee at the r2 number shouting "see!see! 0.00000000000001C up - we're still warming!!) rather than using ones eyes to view the hockey stick which is clear for all to see.

Edited by Sparticle
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

With the ice behaving so 'oddly' in the Arctic basin I feel the Science is viewing the possibility of this being a 'step change' (hence the urgency of the 'expedition'?).

When the USSR's pipeline was spewing gas we knew where the changes in atmospheric concentration came from. The changes , over the noughties, compounded the research being done over the Siberian Shelf sea and the 'concerns' are obviously large enough for the combined authorities to fund and organize this trip. I take it that it depends upon the 'viewer' as to whether this is a real concern or just another AGWism.

I would imagine, after the early start to SST warming this season, that we would have a press release if the early data is of concern? If we hear nothing before next summer then it is not an issue (for now) but if ,by Feb, we have press releases then I , for one, will be reading them with interest?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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