Methane Gas And Climate Change

[Gray-Wolf]

All very high stakes 4WD. If what I think is occuring proves true we get a very different situation from if you are correct. As far as I understand methane it is 25times more powerful than CO2 forcing over a 100yr period and over 72 times Co2's forcing over the first 20years. I do not know at what speed your gobbling bacteria operate at (or they get airborne???) but the 'natural' pool of swamp gas ,wetland vegetation.bog methane now has deep stored frozen methane being released on top of this 'natural' (hence the rises in global atmospheric concentrations over the past 5 years.

Last years reports from this team put the output from the Shelf sea as equal to all the worlds oceans combined. What will be the figures this year?

[pottyprof]

The lack of any current images says something. Most of the stuff on the net is footage from 2007 or news stories from 2010 that are regurgitated to match the current thinking. You can see my point when you're told the problem is supposedly ten times worse than it was. Very "out of the norm" from the people who want us to believe in all things AGW......

Anything current out there?? I'm just interested to see what it looks like.

[Gray-Wolf]

I am also wondering at the 'scale' of this bubbling .

If ship Capt.s travelling the northern sea route in late Aug, early Sept.,report the ocean surface bubbling 'like it was boiling' and then the team reported in the Indy' say the structures producing the plumes are now not just tens of metres across (the whole disturbed ed area and not just the 'chimney'?) but up to over a km across there must be a 'scaling up' of the outputs going on?

The lead Scientist is quoted as saying that they (in last years report) had "significantly underestimated outputs" then you have to wonder how much is being produced? One of the teams reported last year (2010) that the CH4 produced in this area equalled the sum total of all the other world oceans. This must now be factually incorrect and more CH4 is now being produced in this small area than all the other world oceans combined?

The teams have noted the rise in outputs since the 1980's and 90's. In those Decades we saw no significant CH4 anoms in the region . In 2003 this changed and in 2006 the 'flat-lined' global methane levels started to rise. This rise prompted even more teams to go out and investigate the scale of the problem. The 'problem' is the surface frozen layer that was 'capping' the reserves below and keeping them safe from warm water ingress.

One of the team leaders noted that these reserves had been slowly thawing since the end of the last ice age (and the inundation by sea water) but that mankind had picked the wrong time to lend a helping hand to this process?

With the 'Cap breached' it does not take a prof to figure out what happens next. The deposits are a mixture of Hydrate and permafrost deposits. The hydrate expands over 1,000 times it's volume when you melt it. In a sealed system this will create voids and put pressure on the 'cap' above leading to 'mechanical failures' of the cap in any weakened zones building our 'Chimneys' and providing a vent for the gasses to escape. Any disruption of the cap leads to further warm water inundation and the cycle goes around. This is melting Hydrate so i would imagine that this is a very fast process.

The expansion of these 'Chimneys' by up to 10 fold over 1 year seems to confirm the rapidity of change?

So what of next year? When do we reach the point that the whole reserve has warm water accessing the Hydrates? How long before the permafrost also begins to produce CH4?

Edited December 14, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

ABSTRACT FINAL ID: GC41B-0794

TITLE: Ebullition-driven fluxes of methane from shallow hot spots suggest significant under-estimation of annual emission from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf

SESSION TYPE: Poster

SESSION TITLE: GC41B. Permafrost and Methane: Monitoring and Modeling Fluxes of Water and Methane Associated With Arctic Changing Permafrost and Coastal Regiona I Posters

AUTHORS (FIRST NAME, LAST NAME): Natalia E Shakhova1, 2, Igor Peter Semiletov1, 2, Anatoly Salyuk2, Chris Stubbs3, Denis Kosmach2, Orjan Gustafsson4

INSTITUTIONS (ALL): 1. IARC, Univerrsity Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States.

2. Laboratory of Arctic Research, Pacific Oceanological Institute FEBRAS, Vladivostok, Russian Federation.

3. University of California, Marine Science Institute, Santa Barbara, CA, United States.

4. Institute of Applied Environmental Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.

Title of Team:

ABSTRACT BODY: The high-latitude, shallow ESAS has been alternately subaerial and inundated with seawater during glacial and interglacial periods respectively. Subaerial conditions foster the formation of permafrost and associated hydrate deposits whereas inundation with relatively warm seawater destabilizes the permafrost and hydrates. Our measurements of CH4 in 1994-2000 and 2003-2010 over ESAS demonstrate the system to be in a destabilization period. First estimates of ESAS methane emissions indicated the current atmospheric budget, which arises from gradual diffusion and ebullition, was on par with estimates of methane emissions from the entire World Ocean (≈8 Tg-CH4). Large transient emissions remained to be assessed; yet initial data suggested that component could increase significantly annual emissions. New data obtained in 2008-2010 show that contribution of ebullition-driven CH4 fluxes from shallow hot spots alone could multiply previously reported annual emission from the entire ESAS.

The Abstract that drove the Independant report of Monday. Note that the data is from the years 08 through 2010. no data yet on todays level of emmisions but I have heard reports of anomalously high methane readings from the Azores over this Autumn???

We then get this from the lead scientist;

Dr Semelitov says methane from ESAS is currently entering the atmosphere at a “fantastic rateâ€, much greater than previous observations. While reported findings from their latest mission to the Arctic won’t be available until Spring 2012, what is to be reported clearly dwarf previous results reported in 2010 [7].

Edited December 14, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[loafer]

G-W

You might find this interesting...

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/05/28/methane-update/

Increasing, but not expotentially.

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks Loafer! Lets hope for a clearer picture when we have this years data?

[Gray-Wolf]

sat measurements of methane the past 10 Novembers.?

[loafer]

G-W - Is there an image missing from your post - all I can see is a blank space and the words "sat measurements of methane the past 10 Novembers.?"

I was going to make a joke about it making more sense than most of your posts, but I wouldn't want you to think I was being serious!

[pottyprof]

G-W - Is there an image missing from your post - all I can see is a blank space and the words "sat measurements of methane the past 10 Novembers.?"

There is a Youtube video of the methane levels from November 2002 through to 2011. Quite alarming if it's accurate...

[loafer]

Ah! YouTube is blocked at my office. Thanks.

[Gray-Wolf]

I took the methan images from here:

http://dosbat.blogsp...irs-videos.html

this gives the full ten years for each month. If you wonder why Dec,Jan, Feb show such alarming rises compared to summer it is well explained in the 'comments' section.

As for 'methane releases' it seems 2011 broke 2010's temp record across the Arctic region. Then I wonder why I worry about such????

http://www.wwfblogs....1-breaks-record

With the promise of an El-Nino on the horizon what would global (and more importantly Arctic) temps do then with Solar on the upswing and the PDO-ve running out of steam???

Edited January 24, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21733-arctic-methane-leaks-threaten-climate.html

Thanks to Weathership for bringing this to our attention;

A bump for the thread now melt season is upon us!

[knocker]

I'll put it in the correct thread GW although there is no need as you have already done so.

Enter stage left GW. Sorry don't have access to the full paper.

Arctic methane leaks threaten climate

As Arctic sea ice breaks apart, massive amounts of methane could be released into the atmosphere from the cold waters beneath.

High concentrations of the greenhouse gas have been recorded in the air above cracks in the ice. This could be evidence of yet another positive feedback on the warming climate – leading to even faster Arctic warming.

The Arctic is home to vast stores of methane – there are billions of tonnes of methane in permafrost alone. It is a potent greenhouse gas, so a major methane release would greatly accelerate climate change. The gas is found in icy crystals called hydrates beneath the shallow seas that flood some areas of the continental crust, as well as in permafrost. It is also being released from Arctic wetlands.

But this doesn't explain why Eric Kort of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, and his colleagues found patches of methane in remote regions of the Arctic Ocean, far from any of these known methane sources.

The team found the patches during five flights over the Arctic Ocean between 2009 and 2010, as part of a project to systematically map greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.

http://www.newscient...en-climate.html

Edited April 24, 2012 by Weather Ship

[knocker]

The paper would be in Nature Geoscience.

The ancient reserves of methane gas seeping from the melting Arctic ice cap told Jeff Chanton and fellow researchers what they already knew: As the permafrost thaws, there is a release of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that causes climate warming.

The trick was figuring out how much, said Chanton, the John W. Winchester Professor of Oceanography at Florida State University.

The four-member team — whose findings were published in the respected journal Nature Geoscience — documented a large number of gas seep sites in the Arctic where permafrost is thawing and glaciers receding (they found 77 previously undocumented seep sites, comprising 150,000 vents to the atmosphere). Until recently, the cryosphere (frozen soil and ice) has served to plug or block these vents. But thawing conditions have allowed the conduits to open, and deep geologic methane now escapes.

http://fsu.edu/index...ml?lead.chanton

Edited June 18, 2012 by knocker

[knocker]

Methane measurements at low flight level

Detection of the greenhouse gas methane in the Arctic

25.07.2012 | Potsdam: A team of scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association (AWI) and the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has just completed an airborne measurement campaign that allowed for the first time to measure large-scale methane emissions from the extensive Arctic permafrost landscapes. The study area extended from Barrow, the northernmost settlement on the American mainland, across the entire North Slope of Alaska, to the Mackenzie Delta in the Northwest Territories of Canada. The airborne measurements (Airborne Measurement of Methane - AIRMETH) at a flight level of only 30 to 50 meters above ground addresses two major questions: How much methane is emitted from permafrost areas into the atmosphere? Do well known geological point sources, i.e. the leakage of gas along geologic faults, contribute significantly to the total amount or does the microbially produced methane from the upper soil layers dominate?

http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/portal/gfz/Public+Relations/Pressemitteilungen/aktuell/120726_AWI_MethanInArktis?template=gfz

[knocker]

Are Methane Hydrates Dissolving?

Examining gas outlets off the coast of Spitsbergen with the submersible JAGO

August 13, 2012/Kiel, Reykjavik. West of Spitsbergen methane gas is effervescing out of the seabed. Is this an indication that methane hydrates in the seabed are dissolving due to rising temperatures? And what would the effects be? An expedition with the German research vessel MARIA S. MERIAN and the submersible JAGO lead by GEOMAR | Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel hopes to help answer these questions. The expedition begins today in Reykjavik.

http://www.geomar.de/index.php?id=4&no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=852&tx_ttnews[backPid]=185&L=1

[Gray-Wolf]

A good introduction to the issues we currently face with some very recent information.

Did you know that there is a lens of 'fossil ice' over the submerges permafrosts (remnant from previous ice ages) which has masked the extent of the hydrates there? Not good to find we have many times more than the massive amount we knew we had there. 1% loss of that reserve is now enough to double atmospheric Methane!!

With the scale of permafrost meltdown how hard would that be to achieve?

[gagerg]

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=iSsPHytEnJM

A good introduction to the issues we currently face with some very recent information.

Did you know that there is a lens of 'fossil ice' over the submerges permafrosts (remnant from previous ice ages) which has masked the extent of the hydrates there? Not good to find we have many times more than the massive amount we knew we had there. 1% loss of that reserve is now enough to double atmospheric Methane!!

With the scale of permafrost meltdown how hard would that be to achieve?

With the world as it is 1% loss of that reserve is the final nail on the coffin sending humanity straight to extinction.

[Rainy]

This is so depressing. What awful problems we've left our children and grandchildren.

Youngsters are concerned and ask questions. But what do we say to them as life gets more difficult? .... Somebody is fixing the problem? It will only be tricky for a few years? Nature has a way of bouncing back?

[Rainy]

So how do you reply to a youngster who asks why the Arctic sea ice has melted so much this year and does it matter? There's been lots of coverage in front of them in the press and videos on TV etc. A good thing I would suggest to encourage youngsters to have an enquiring mind and seek information.

Edited November 18, 2012 by pottyprof
Removal of quoted post.

[laserguy]

You could tell 'em to abandon all hopes and aspirations for their future right now and that they might as well end it all 'cos we're all going to die in some horrible weather catastrophe anyway. Or, like me you could tell 'em to take no notice of such rubbish and get on with it - they wouldn't know what's going down in the Arctic and elsewhere anyway if it wasn't for someone or other telling them.

[Gray-Wolf]

It all depends on how you live your life LG? Through living I've accepted that sometimes you have to do the onerous thing to avoid it snowballing into something even worse down the line? To allow your child to see you're honest and open with them helps build a lifelong trust (I believe) For them to find out later that it wasn't only Santa and the tooth fairy you mislead them about can destroy that bond and leave them resentful of your inability to 'trust ' them?

I do not believe any child posses the sophistication of mind to link discussions of melting ice to climate impacts affecting day to day living? If they ask about melting ice then explain to them what you know. If they ask about 'climate change' then explain to them what you know.

Do not turn your own children in the whipping boy of your own frustrations.

[laserguy]

To allow your child to see you're honest and open with them...

I am.

[jethro]

IMO the only honest answer you can give a child is that CO2 has the potential to change the climate but we don't know how much, where will be impacted the most or in what way. The most important thing you can teach your child about this topic is to educate them how to live sustainably, with the minimum impact upon the environment and to only take what they need. I can hand on heart say that's how I've brought mine up, regardless of AGW and I'm absolutely certain Laser will have too - you don't need to believe in all the drama associated with AGW to want to live a green lifestyle.

[laserguy]

Ye J - you'd think that some folk need a big stick like the contrived threat of AGW hanging over them to behave themselves,environmentally speaking. It shouldn't be like that,but whatever it takes,eh?