Following The Winter Storm

[Glacier Point]

I've started this thread to look at the development of the upcoming winter storm. This is not a forecasting thread but for real time discussion. Please feel free to post in your links.

Our storm is currently starting within the elongating trough in the western Atlantic as the jet stream buckles ahead of the mid Atlantic ridge.

Note the development of the trough and the upstream ridge setting up over the SE United States which will eventually pull the trough apart and send a wedge of energy eastwards below the blocking ridge in the Atlantic.

Meteosat Western Atlantic view:

http://cimss.ssec.wi...8irbbmjava.html

In the eastern Atlantic between the Azores and Canaries we're seeing some instablilty aloft generating shower activity.

Meteosat Eastern Atlantic view:

http://cimss.ssec.wi...tirbbmjava.html

The last link should be good to show the storm begin to organise and head north east. Note at the moment a westerward push of air from the tropics which seems to get caught up in the sub-tropical flow and ridge development over North Africa which may be influential in delfecting the polar flow northward.

Atlantic view:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/mosaicmain.php?&basin=e∏=irx

Northern hemisphere view:

http://wxweb.meteost...WV/&NUMBLOOP=10

Netweather satellite links:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=nwsat;sess=

[mezzacyclone]

very interesting to hear resemblances to the Oct. 87 storm?

even more interesting to see what GFS has picked up with the development currently poised near the Canaries

oh, great links btw GP

[Slowpoke]

It's going to be exciting to watch it develop! The BBC have even hinted at it on the BBC Look East local forecast. I expect the MetOffice to issue advisories for it tomorrow.

[andy_leics22]

Thanks GP

I heard the Queen has you down on her shortlist to receive an MBE

[Upgrade]

we are what, 4 days away. another day of runs and we should start to get a clearer picture of where this is headed. if i had to stick my nose out , i would say it will track south of where it is progged and we will draw in more easterlys with more convective merging snow showers. or maybe that's hopecasting!

[Fozfoster]

Great links GP. Will watch with interest.

[Bristle Si]

GP - those links are ace!

Where will this thread actually 'sit' in the forum over the next few days?

[Nick F]

Good thread to start, will try and contribute my own analysis when time permits.

From what I can see being the cause of this low, signficant upper cold air advection SW-wards from northern Europe towards the Azores is helping elongate the upper trough SW, which in turn is creating a rather strong baroclinic zone/steepening thermal gradient SW of Iberia early on Monday. This zone will help what looks initially a rather innocuous looking low coming away from the Azores undergo deep cyclogenesis in this area, with the deepening low ultimately moving NE along the forward side of this SW-NE aligned upper trough towards Nern France. Track I think wont be certain until later this weekend, but will be interesting watch its track and how the associated fronts and winds spread in across the UK which will predominantly be under very cold air still.

[greybing]

i hope this low does amount to a 'winter storm' in our part of the world,....how certain are people that it will hit some part of britain?

[Alpine glow]

Thank you GP.. Bookmarked

[dogs32]

nice one..

so glad this thread as been made

look forward to the twists and turns of this snow storm and its possibilities

and your analyses

[Thunder Snow]

When is the storm forecast to hit, tuesday day or night? Reason why im asking is i have to travel to maryport and i would rather not get stuck there or have my train delayed for hours on end lol.

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Great thread GP, Thank you. Credit where it's due too, you were the one talking about energy being thrown west into Europe, due to current global zonal wind data etc., some 48 hours ago were you not?

Bravo

Ned

[loafer]

Very interesting.

The storm is particularly clear on your link to

[dogs32]

Well Im really confused....

A few people saying NO SUPER STORM...

Any one have any opinions..

[Glacier Point]

There are three key components to this storm for it to come of.

1) Disturbance in the flow carried from the disrupting upper trough in the western Atlantic.

2) Upper level weakness between the Azores, North Africa and IIberia.

3) Ridge development over North Africa.

All of these components have to come together in order for the cyclone to develop sufficiently enough to warrant further attention. So how are they doing ?

1) as the satellites show, the western component is showing some nice organisation as a developing cyclonic feature.

2) unfortunately, the weakness ahead of it has not held up and has got entrained in the jet stream reducing the favourable environment ahead of (1).

3) the ridge over Africa looks less amplified so northward deflection looks less pronounced in the future - look at the flash of cloud angled flat across North Africa.

So where does this leave us ? There is continued evidence a developing cyclonic feature coming into the Azores. However, the upstream environment has become much less favourable to rapid cyclogenesis and northward movement. We still have the feature coming into the Azores and there is an upper trough ahead of it although, as models suggest, this is much more likely to be a weaker, less defined feature.

[Weather-history]

Thanks for your update and analyses, GP although now I think this thread is a pretty redundant unless something dramatic changes.

[AWD]

Perhaps its time to say goodbye to this thread now. Not really needed unfortunately!