Coldest Sustained End Of November That I Can Recall

[mike Meehan]

I'm putting this in the Autumn Section because officially it is still Autumn.

I have been around for a goodly number of years but in all that time I cannot recall a sustained cold spell such as we are having at the moment (Yes a few frosts but nothing as sustained as this) and forecast for about the next week, which it appears will last for the last week in November to getting onto at least the start of the second week in December. I have always associated this type of weather with January, though December 1962 was quite cold.

Perhaps those with access and time to examine the records could check and see what similar situations to this we have had in the past. It would be interesting to know.

[Guest]

Or, perhaps, there is an old saying that if the ice in autumn is strong enough to support a duck the rest of the winter will be muck - meaning wet muddy conditions.

Will be interesting to see what transpires.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi Mike,

I've just flicked through the archive charts since 1948 and I cant see a spell incorporating the last few days of Autumn into the first few days of Winter, as cold as this one. I'm sure Kevin (Mr.Data), will come up with something further back. So, certainly a noteworthy spell!

Regards,

Tom.

[damianslaw]

There have been some cold ends to November in recent years such as 2008, 2005, 1996 and 1993.

The last really cold spell in late Nov was in 1993, however, that one started a bit earlier than this one but ended abruptly as December started.

I would compare this cold period to that which occured in late 1985 in terms of temps, but this one is more severe in terms of snowfall.

This is a notable very cold snowy spell for November - it beats anything most of the country saw during winters 07/08, 06/07 (yes we had the brief snowy period in feb), 99/00, 98/99, 97/98. This is a bonus for many, we don't normally expect these type of conditions to have a chance of happening until around christmas and on average March delivers more snowy cold weather than November. We should be counting ourselves lucky..

[Stu_London]

If you take a look in the November CET thread, you will see the possibility being discussed of it being the coldest last week of November in CET history.

At the moment it's looking about 50/50

We are certainly going to be about 2 degress below anything in the last 50 years or so.

[TonyH]

This looks like the place to quote my report in the Welsh thread just now:

Enjoy this cold spell, its unlikely we will see the like in November again for a long while.

My -10.7c minimum today has beaten the lowest I can find in the records of COL bulletins (1970-2000) for Wales. The lowest being -10.0c at Llanpumsaint near Carmarthen 23rd November 1993. Lampeter got down to -8.8c the day before which was reported as being "the coldest November night since records began in 1973".

As for day time maxima, sub zeros in November are remarkable by their virtual absence, so that will really take some doing...in fact it won't happen today as my temperature has shot up to the dizzy heights of -1.4c already.

Swansea had a low high if you get what I mean of just +1.5c in 1993, that was the coldest November day since records began way back in1969! Parts of England did have maxima that month well below freezing, for example -3.5c in Somerset, but that was due to freezing fog all day.

Finally, to show how rare is lying snow at this time of AUTUMN- the 5cm covering that Swansea had in November 2005 was reported to be the "deepest in November for more than 30 years". Velindre in Powys managed 4 days of lying snow in 1993 which is the snowiest November I have been able to find in the COL records. That figure could be beaten this month- I had lying snow yesterday morning, it's there 2 inches deep this morning, and with 3 more mornings to go...watch this space...

Additionally, in November 1973 there was "an unusually cold last week with severe frosts", Long Lawford, Warwickshire, had frost (I assume sub zero) for an astounding 91 of the final 120 hours of the month. I can recall a November freeze up (obviously 1973) from my youth in Coventry when it seemed that the pavements were iced over for a week and we made the most amazing slides (pity the elderly back then!). The same month it was reported in COL that bicycles were ridden across the River Leven, North Yorkshire by the end of the month and that ice was observed on the Medway in Kent on the 28th. Some notably low minima, including 14f (-10c) at Gainsborough, Lincolnshire.

Edited November 27, 2010 by Tonyh

[HotCuppa]

I must say this is definitely one of the longest lived cold periods for November in my region, even more so when you consider this is going to continue into next week too.

The most amazing thing for me though, is how bone dry it is in the North West at this time of year. I can't honestly recall a drier end to November since the 90's.

Edited November 27, 2010 by HotCuppa

[johnholmes]

It is certainly looking like being one of the coldest and snowiest ends to November over fairly large parts of the country.

I posted this about the Doncaster area in another thread which shows, however bad my memory is, that cold and snow are not unknown in this part of the world in November.

For once the media had the headlines about right quoting it as the snowiest for someparts since 1993!

To close, I just need to say, I’ve been involved with weather, observing and forecasting, for over 50 years and my memory suggested that the events being predicted are very rare in this area. This may have been because for 25 years I was away from this side of the Pennines. I had to check back through the RAF Finningley records to remind me that November has had some ‘notable’ cold and snowy spells in this area. The last one was 1993 with 5 days falling and 2 lying, prior to that its 1985 with 4 days of snow and 3 lying. 1965 holds the record with 9 days of snow falling and 3 lying. The average over the period 1942-1995=1 day snow falling per month with <1 day lying. For air frost (for some reason these did not start being recorded until 1955) so 40 years data=6.2 per month.

[Terminal Moraine]

Agree with you there, John. 1965, 1985 and 1993 all saw some very cold and snowy weather here too. The most remarkable feature of this spell seems to be its projected length and the fact that it's occurring in the last week in November and the first week in Decmeber. I've kept records for 47 years and in all that time there has been no spell to match this during these weeks, the nearest approach was in 1973 but that spell lasted only 6 days and did not produce as much as snow in total as we had here in the early hours of this morning.

It seems to be a climatological quirk that the first week in December is usually mild or at least on the mild side of average and that any cold weather sets in later in the month, even in Dec' 1981 the first week was on the mild side.

It remains to be seen what temperatures, and how much snow, the remainder of November comes up with. If the GFS is right there is some significant snowfall on the way for eastern and central England and some very low minima at the start of December.

[coldfingers]

If you take a look in the November CET thread, you will see the possibility being discussed of it being the coldest last week of November in CET history.

At the moment it's looking about 50/50

We are certainly going to be about 2 degress below anything in the last 50 years or so.

Well I am 61 and don't ever remember a cold spell as prolonged as this in late November. Most definitely never in the extreme South of the country.

[Eugene]

What an excellent thread this is, some very interesting reading in here.

This is a bonus for many, we don't normally expect these type of conditions to have a chance of happening until around christmas and on average March delivers more snowy cold weather than November. We should be counting ourselves lucky..

Yes this cold spell has come about a month early, most December cold spells occur after mid Dec around the christmas period, yes March to me delivers much more cold and snowy weather than November, i even think March isn't that far behind even December in terms of wintry weather even though the days are much longer in March, actually even though averages are higher than November April has a better chance of seeing snowfall, yes it wont last as long on the ground as November but i feel snow falling out of the sky is more common.

Autumns arent that cold at all in the UK, its a shame November doesnt show cold spells like this one more often because the amount of daylight and darkness is perfect for cold weather spells but cold pools arent developed enough for most of the month until towards the end of the month and synoptics in November not suited for cold weather the majority of the time.

[Thundery wintry showers]

There were some very cold snowy Novembers in the 1910s and 1920s, notably 1919, 1923 and 1925. 1923 and 1925 both had very cold weather in the last week of November and into early December, so those are probably going to be the main "markers" for this cold spell to be measured against. The other approaches are 1952, 1965 and 1993 but if current outputs verify they will probably all be exceeded taking the UK as a whole.

[Rollo]

In the North-East the last week of November 1965 was exceptionally snowy but as I recall the synoptic set-up was not at all like the present one and the snow was very marginal as depressions ran east over the midlands,I cannot recall situations like this occuring so early in winter. Perhaps TWS can enlighten me as to why the snow is laying so readily despite ground temperatures not being greatly affected by early frosts.

[Stu_London]

There were some very cold snowy Novembers in the 1910s and 1920s, notably 1919, 1923 and 1925. 1923 and 1925 both had very cold weather in the last week of November and into early December, so those are probably going to be the main "markers" for this cold spell to be measured against. The other approaches are 1952, 1965 and 1993 but if current outputs verify they will probably all be exceeded taking the UK as a whole.

CET wise, 1923 is the second coldest last week in November at -0.3C

I think we will be pretty close to this in 2010

Edited November 27, 2010 by Stu_London

[TonyH]

There were some very cold snowy Novembers in the 1910s and 1920s, notably 1919, 1923 and 1925. 1923 and 1925 both had very cold weather in the last week of November and into early December, so those are probably going to be the main "markers" for this cold spell to be measured against. The other approaches are 1952, 1965 and 1993 but if current outputs verify they will probably all be exceeded taking the UK as a whole.

Indeed the further you go back they will crop up, it says this on the Bablake, Coventry web site:

.....snow fell from early morning on the 27th November 1925 throughout the day, with snow lying extensively as maximum temperatures only rose to 2.8°C in Coventry.

.....as a contrast, it was mild in the city on this day in 1917, with a maximum temperature of 13.8°C in Coventry.

.....On the morning of the 27th November 1923, there was a hard frost in Coventry as minima fell to -6.1°C overnight .

Bablake WS

Edited November 27, 2010 by Tonyh

[Snowyowl9]

Today reminds me of the coldest spells of novembers of the 80`s but another date which may surprise is of December 25th 1995 wind direction was similar,except today is a touch colder and more sunnier.

By the way things are looking it`s from now till the end which will be record breaking in some way.

For snow this is the most so far since 1996 and this is the powdery type snow like during the coldest 80`s november snaps.

[Thundery wintry showers]

In the North-East the last week of November 1965 was exceptionally snowy but as I recall the synoptic set-up was not at all like the present one and the snow was very marginal as depressions ran east over the midlands,I cannot recall situations like this occuring so early in winter. Perhaps TWS can enlighten me as to why the snow is laying so readily despite ground temperatures not being greatly affected by early frosts.

Although ground temperatures are a factor in the likelihood of snow settling on the ground, they only become a significant factor in the case of very marginal (temps near 1C) or light snowfalls. If it's marginal you often get wet snow accumulating and thawing from underneath while if the snow is light it may melt on impact with warm ground, but if temperatures are well short of 1C and the snow is heavy then it will settle regardless.

Many parts have been seeing heavy snowfalls that weren't particularly marginal (unusually for November) and hence the persistence of snow cover. I'm guessing that in the 1965 case the marginality will have been offset by the intensity of the snowfalls. Mid-November 1965 had quite a similar setup to this with easterly winds originating to the north of Scandinavia, but as you say the last week had a very different setup.

[reef]

This is certainly a notable spell in this neck of the woods, though so far the temperatures havent been quite low enough to beat 1993 and 1985. Indeed, 1985 was exceptional with a maximum temperature of -2.6C and minima of -7.8C both on the 29th. In the same spell the 28th was also an ice day (max -0.3C), whereas this year maxima have generally been in the 1-3C range so far. With regards to snowfall, 2010 is also on par with 1985 and 1993 with three days of lying snow at 0900. This will no doubt be surpassed tomorrow making it the snowiest November here in my 28 years of records.

This year will almost certainly beat 1985 and 1993 in duration, both of those spells only lasted 4 days - a number we've reached during this spell already.

I do agree about the relative lack of cold in the first week of December though. Mean min temps are generally no colder than the last week in November and the date record lows here for the 4th and 5th are just -0.2C and -0.5C.

[Rollo]

Although ground temperatures are a factor in the likelihood of snow settling on the ground, they only become a significant factor in the case of very marginal (temps near 1C) or light snowfalls. If it's marginal you often get wet snow accumulating and thawing from underneath while if the snow is light it may melt on impact with warm ground, but if temperatures are well short of 1C and the snow is heavy then it will settle regardless.

Many parts have been seeing heavy snowfalls that weren't particularly marginal (unusually for November) and hence the persistence of snow cover. I'm guessing that in the 1965 case the marginality will have been offset by the intensity of the snowfalls. Mid-November 1965 had quite a similar setup to this with easterly winds originating to the north of Scandinavia, but as you say the last week had a very different setup.

Thanks for that TWS,the snowfalls at the end of November 1965 were indeed very heavy but extremely marginal.

Edited November 27, 2010 by Rollo

[Weather-history]

A chance of a record minimum date record.

-12.3C was recorded on the 28th November 1977

[Guest]

If I recall correctly in 1965 we had a snowfall in Herts on November 18th - This was an overnight fall (about 3 inches) with the temp remaining below freezing for a good part of the morning but by midday it was thawing and after this we were left with just slushy bits.

At the time I was on my basic driving course with the Herts Police and it was very pretty in North Herts, where we went that day.

[spindrift1980]

A noteworthy occurrence is that the Avalanche Information Service in Scotland has deciced to start providing limited forecasts for the Lochaber and high Cairngorm areas with immediate effect. Usually the volume of snowfall and number of layers within the snowpack in early winter is such that it is only considered necessary to provide these forecasts from mid-December onwards.

http://www.walkhighlands.co.uk/news/avalanche-service-starts-limited-forecasts-due-to-early-snow/002896/

[Freezing-Point]

I now have 12" of snow lying which has now beaten the Jan 2010 event. Mt brother in Morpeth measured 14" this morning and that must be 15" by now. This is the heaviest snowfall of Novemeber I can remember in my region. - Mr Data - can you confirm?

I find it weird. When we reminice (as we all do), imagine saying "remember NOVEMBER (year)".

Nevermind November.....This is the heaviest snowfall for many years in these parts, since (1992) and the potential in the next 5 days could take it into record teretory.

[Upgrade]

I now have 12" of snow lying which has now beaten the Jan 2010 event. Mt brother in Morpeth measured 14" this morning and that must be 15" by now. This is the heaviest snowfall of Novemeber I can remember in my region. - Mr Data - can you confirm?

I find it weird. When we reminice (as we all do), imagine saying "remember NOVEMBER (year)".

Nevermind November.....This is the heaviest snowfall for many years in these parts, since (1992) and the potential in the next 5 days could take it into record teretory.

it could beat 1991 in the north east, i'd imagine. this is quite locallised though, so far (in terms of extreme depths).

in west yorkshire, which got 30 inches in 91, there's only been a couple of inches so far.

coldest end of Nov i can remember in London & i've been here 15 years. it's more like a February spell. strange when some leaves are still on the trees here!

[TonyH]

Further to my post this morning, there have been very extreme temperatures in the MIdlands in November.

-12.8c in 1904 Coventry:

Coventry extreme temperatures

-11.2c currently here is by far the lowest I have experienced though.