Coldest Sustained End Of November That I Can Recall

[Weather-history]

A chance of a record minimum date record.

-12.3C was recorded on the 28th November 1977

Looks like this record has gone.

[kold weather]

given temps may actually be a little lower then the models have been progging we are once again in with a real shout of getting close to the record coldest last week of November...once correction are done at the end of the month I think we may well just clinch it from I think its 1787?

No denying this is an exceptional cold spell...as exceptional as the early Jan 2010 cold spell was (coldest in 110 years or so for the first 10 days of Jan) it seems highly likely we are going to be in the top 3-5 coldest last weeks with a real risk of it being the coldest ever...

When was the last time we were in with a real shout of challenging for a weekly cold record? We weren't massivly far off in Jan 2010 I suspect but other then that it must have been a rather long time ago I'd have thought!

[AderynCoch]

I believe 1923 holds the record for the coldest last week of November since 1772.

-0.29C is the figure to beat.

[Marcus_surfer]

No snowfall here but very exceptional in terms of Temperatures here, very low for coastal areas of S Wales.

[Stu_London]

I believe 1923 holds the record for the coldest last week of November since 1772.

-0.29C is the figure to beat.

I think 1787 has -0.43C

The provision figure for 24-26 Nov is +0.97C, however the last 4 days of the week look colder (particularly tonight) and there may of course be downward revisions to the provisional figure.

[kold weather]

Hmmm we are going to be close to that figure Stu even without any revisions, the 27th probably will come in at something like -0.5C and I can't see any of the other days this month coming in any milder then that which would take us down to a little bit 0C...

With revisions I think there is a very real chance we end up getting that record, esp as a couple of the night time figures look a shade too high IMO comparing to the other reports...

Actually another question, what is the coldest 10 day periods between any dates between say the 20th November and the 10th of December?

Because the 10 day period between the 26th November and 5th December could quite easily be ranking up there, esp if some of the models are right and we pick up widespread ice days by Wednesday...

[Stu_London]

Yes the first week of December could come in below 0C too, although slightly milder towards the end of the week is possible.

[Weather-history]

Here's that list again

Past cold last weeks to November for the CET mean

1774: 1.8

1776: 2.6

1782: 0.8

1787: -0.4

1788: 2.4

1789: 2.5

1801: 2.5

1804: 2.8

1807: 0.3

1813: 2.0

1815: 1.2

1816: 2.5

1840: 2.1

1844: 2.5

1840: 2.0

1851: 1.5

1862: 2.4

1874: 2.9

1875: 1.3

1878: 2.2

1879: 1.2

1884: 2.4

1890: 0.2

1891: 2.3

1904: -0.2

1910: 2.1

1915: 0.8

1919: 2.4

1923: -0.3

1925: 0.8

1947: 2.0

1952: 0.5

1969: 1.3

1973: 1.8

1977: 2.7

1978: 2.1

1985: 2.4

1989: 1.9

1993: 2.2

[Terminal Moraine]

Interesting how many there were in the 1800s and how few since 1925.

[johnholmes]

I think a good many places come Tuesday evening are going to show their coldest last week in November for a long time?

I'm currently on 1.7C Wed-Sat inclusive and the models do not suggest anything other than more of the same values or perhaps even lower!

[Weather-history]

Past cold last weeks to November for the CET mean that were sub 2C because it is likely to be sub 2C

1774: 1.8

1782: 0.8

1787: -0.4

1807: 0.3

1815: 1.2

1851: 1.5

1875: 1.3

1879: 1.2

1890: 0.2

1904: -0.2

1915: 0.8

1923: -0.3

1925: 0.8

1952: 0.5

1969: 1.3

1973: 1.8

1989: 1.9

[kold weather]

I think you can rule out the CEt's in the 1-2C range as well to be honest given the level of cold expected, so we are pretty much certain to go into the top 10 coldest last weeks in the CET zone even before adjustments!

[TonyH]

Further to my post this morning, there have been very extreme temperatures in the MIdlands in November.

-12.8c in 1904 Coventry:

Coventry extreme temperatures

Slightly confused with this as I found my digitised historical records for Coventry that I researched myself at the Records Office in the 1980's, and they show the lowest in November as only -8.9c in 1904. Now Bablake is a fantastic weather site, but this would not be the first time I've found an error in the all-time records they have for Coventry, as they had the wettest day ever as in a May in the 1960s with 100mm, so I found the original newspaper for that day, it was in fact 10mm. The actual wettest being in Dec 1900.

Perhaps they have transcribed the grass minimum of -12.8c in error for 1904? Guess we will never know, unless someone else has historical data for the Midlands for 1904?

[Optimus Prime]

Grass minimum is non-standard?

[TonyH]

Grass minimum is non-standard?

I was just thinking that they may have put down the grass minimum figure instead of the minimum which I have down as -8.9c.

No idea if its standard.

[Stu_London]

24-27 November is 0.4C

Almost certainly go sub zero tomorrow given that the overnight CET minimum is a quite staggering -8.0C for the 28th.

[TonyH]

I have emailed Steve Jackson of Bablake school.

[Stu_London]

Interesting how many there were in the 1800s and how few since 1925.

Lots in the Dalton Minimum

A feature of European climate in times of Grand Minimums is not just the severity of winters, they were also generally longer too.

A taste of the next 30 years or so?

Edited November 28, 2010 by Stu_London

[Snowyowl9]

So -18c was reached in powys last night,perfect recipe clear skies polar air.

-25.1c was reached in shawbury december 1981 food for thought.

[AderynCoch]

I think 1787 has -0.43C

Yes you're right, I stand corrected. I miscalculated that one.

[AderynCoch]

Actually another question, what is the coldest 10 day periods between any dates between say the 20th November and the 10th of December?

Because the 10 day period between the 26th November and 5th December could quite easily be ranking up there, esp if some of the models are right and we pick up widespread ice days by Wednesday...

I'm not sure, but here's a strong contender:

30th November - 9th December 1879 = -3.02C

It will also interesting to see what the month from 7th November to 7th December ends up like.

[Snowyowl9]

This is without any doubt the coldest ever end to november I`ve seen.

Today`s max was -3.0c other only made -6c which would the coldest day I`ve recorded,so coldest day since January 1987.

Smashed the previous november recorded by 3c.

The absolutely perfect day clear sunny,light air from the NE,feels nice in the sun.

:o

[damianslaw]

This is without any doubt the coldest ever end to november I`ve seen.

Today`s max was -3.0c other only made -6c which would the coldest day I`ve recorded,so coldest day since January 1987.

Smashed the previous november recorded by 3c.

The absolutely perfect day clear sunny,light air from the NE,feels nice in the sun.

:o

This is an exceptionally cold spell for Wales particularly given we are in November.

I believe the next three days will deliver some further very low temps, if anything I think this spell will eclipse the early Jan 2010 spell in terms of departure from what is the CET norm, late nov/early dec is notorious for mild weather.

[TonyH]

Issue with Coventry's coldest ever November night now resolved, I have had an email back from Steve Jackson:

Yes Tony you are spot on!

In the rush to update the web site this morning, I wrote down the grass minimum from 1904 – I think last night was the coldest now since 1901.

I am amazed you have done some extensive research on Coventry’s weather, and not made contact before – we obviously have something in common!

Thanks for the netweather link. I will have a look.

Best wishes

Steve Jackson

Bablake Weather Station

Coventry UK

-11.5c here, my record from January is -16.7c

Edited November 28, 2010 by Tonyh

[Stu_London]

I'm expecting the last week to come in around -1C now, possibly a bit lower after any end of month adjustment.

To put this in statistical context, it's a bit like us getting a day in summer where the max temperature is 41C