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January CET


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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
Posted

Just thought I would start this. I've heard over in the Weather Outlook that Nothern Blocking could happen again in January. I'm going for a cold month but nothing spectacular.

2.7c

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

I'll post my guess nearer the time, but here's a (tongue in cheek) thought just in case we have any lurkers from Streeton, West Yorkshire looking in.

Is it possible to get a winter month above 3C - not sure I will see one in my lifetime.

Posted
  • Location: Ashington
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Ashington
Posted

0.1c but will probably be changed nearer to January.

Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
Posted

0.1c but will probably be changed nearer to January.

That's very low. For that to happen you would need a very potent cold spell. If that were to happen we would have a classic winter on the cards.

Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
Posted

I will hold my guess right off till the last possibility this year, because I feel it will all depend on how the outcome of the disagreement between GFS, ECM and UKMO. If the UKMO is to believed then there is no reason January will not stat exceptionally cold. Time will tell.

Posted
  • Location: Ashington
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Ashington
Posted

That's very low. For that to happen you would need a very potent cold spell. If that were to happen we would have a classic winter on the cards.

Ive got a feeling we might but confidence is very low so thats why I said will probably be changed nearer the time :)

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Bang on 3C.

Cool month, with milder interludes. Many air frosts, fewer snow events.

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
Posted

I'll come in nice and early for bonus points. even larger teapot is over, it's going to be a very mild month at 4.1c.

Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
Posted

4.5c, assuming the blocking breaks down at some point. If not then something below about 2.5c is probably more likely, but 4.5c is my guess. After all, we would be spoilt having three winter months below average.

Posted
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand
Posted

That's very low. For that to happen you would need a very potent cold spell. If that were to happen we would have a classic winter on the cards.

Do we not already? (wasn't sure if you were being sarcastic or not!)

Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
Posted

I'm might revise this before I go skiing... CPC (Or is it CFS?) charts indicating strong Northern blocking in January, so for now I will go for 1.4C

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Think HP will dominate for much of the month and I think we may well see a pretty cold start. Whether or not we get northern blocking is looking uncertain, I think we may well get a northerly shot before mid month.

I'm going to hold back for now though...

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

I will go for 2.8c

Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham
Posted

-3.9, coldest month ever.

Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
Posted

Will wait till nearer the time however i can see HP being close by for much of the month. So drier and colder than average would be my guess at the moment. Nothing like December though. In the long term there are indications of heights rising over Greenland. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw another shot from the North during the first half of January. After that i reckon high pressure would be close by, if not over the UK.

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

2.5c and see how many miles off I am.

Posted
  • Location: West leeds, 115m asl
  • Location: West leeds, 115m asl
Posted

With cold sst's around the UK and little end in sight for the blocked pattern (I just don't buy the model's "default FI mode" to bring the atlantic in at all), I can't see Jan being anywhere near average. However, some milder incursions should float around the top of any high pressure systems at time, bringing nearer average temps (like the beginning of last week)

1.6 is my punt :)

Posted
  • Location: Ayr
  • Location: Ayr
Posted

In these post-modern winters it seems the synoptics for an above 3C month have to be just right. We almost managed it in February but fell just short. You have to wonder if we'll ever see one again....

I think we will fall just short of the milestone at 2.8C

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

I just can't see anything other then a cold, maybe very cold first 10 days to Jan. Whilst its uncertain whether its just faux cold or real deep cold...

so already it may well be a tough ask to get above average for where I think we will be by mid month...

Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
Posted

-1.3 for me please

Looks like the stratosphere wants to play ball plus north sea temps are getting low.

Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
Posted

I'll go for -0.5C because that would make this winter about right for a long lasting good one, which IMO it will be remembered for.(totally illogical I know)

If a volcano erupts in Iceland VE 5 or above I'll go -2C.(damn logical, but please don't worry or get underwear in a twist about it) :smiliz19:

Have a good Boxing day everybody.

Russ

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