Last Nights ? Yesterdays Forecasting Failure

[Cheese Rice]

Unless you're in a valley I find those figures unlikely. Quick check around the country suggest a possible error in your observation.

No the figures are indeed correct, surprising when comparing to the rest of the country.

One only has to look at Leeds Bradford Airport official weather station to see temperature is currently at 1.c, bear in mind the temperatures is rounded to the nearest degree so the temp could easily be 0.6c (what I'm reporting).

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EGNM/2010/12/28/DailyHistory.html

Actually, after looking at the temps across NE England they are generally around 1-2.c. So 0.6c is a pretty average temperature reporting when put in context with the temps across most of NE England.

[Stu_London]

I expect the clue as two why you didn't have a problem is within your own post 2c to 4c temps. Other places were lower and freezing rain is simply rain that falls onto a surface and freezes on contact.

yes but according to meto observations there wasnt anywhere in the uk that was below freezing in the line of the front yesterday.

[Sun dog]

Was the forecast a result of the infamous Christmas data loss? Or perhaps key personnel to accurately interpret what data was available.

Seems incredible that a forum of enthusiastic amateurs and semi-professionals can reach a consensus a full 24 hrs before the Met Office on the likely outcome of a not so marginal event.

Their forecast was poor and to keep repeating it despite an obvious thaw was shocking. Personally as a tax payer I'd like to hear the Met Office's explanation of why their forecast was wrong. Is their an over reliance on computer models instead of relying upon experience and measurements of actual data?

Sorry Met Office on this occasion simply not good enough.

[The PIT]

yes but according to meto observations there wasnt anywhere in the uk that was below freezing in the line of the front yesterday.

It doesn't have to below freezing for freezing rain. It just has to freeze on contact. So if the ground temp is -6C and air temp 1c it's going to freeze.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

dont know what meto/bbc were thinking! there was never going to be any snow, the upper air temps were above 0C, from monday evening, snow not possible with those uppers regardless of elevation

[The PIT]

Was the forecast a result of the infamous Christmas data loss? Or perhaps key personnel to accurately interpret what data was available.

Seems incredible that a forum of enthusiastic amateurs and semi-professionals can reach a consensus a full 24 hrs before the Met Office on the likely outcome of a not so marginal event.

Their forecast was poor and to keep repeating it despite an obvious thaw was shocking. Personally as a tax payer I'd like to hear the Met Office's explanation of why their forecast was wrong. Is their an over reliance on computer models instead of relying upon experience and measurements of actual data?

Sorry Met Office on this occasion simply not good enough.

Seems incredible that a forum of amateurs can report the conditions yet the met office can not tap into this information.

[4wd]

They did forecast quite serious snow (and wind) - quite worrying.

We did have about an inch of ice on roads despite air being abut +1c

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C60_XHPAVAY

[Jayces]

When the front arrived here it intially hailed for about 10 minutes before turning to rain.

I only know that because my wife went outside because she thought someone was throwing stones at our windows for some reason.

[cuckoo]

Firstly I should say I am a weather layman and frequent the forum to ascertain the likely upcoming weather patterns, mainly through observing the model thread.

Many of the forum members on netweather were giving a list of things that needed to happen for the precipitation to fall as snow, e.g. front aligned NW / SE, the flow to change to include an Easterly component instead of straight Southerly etc..

As a laymen watching the event I did not see any of these things occuring yet the Met-office were predicting snow for my region so I was interested to observe the outcome. As the evening wore on some surprisingly mild temperatures were being reported in the regional threads where the 2nd precipitation band was passing over and some of the areas in the midlands where the BBC graphics had shown rain starting to turn to sleet / snow were only reporting heavy rain and significantly posiiive temperatures.

I was interested to view the BBC Look North forecast as it was aparent to me by now that this would likely be rain for my area but the local evening (after 10pm) forecast by Keeley Donovan continued to show rain turning to snow for my region although she did mention that the amount of snow expected had been downgraded slightly.

I was surprised at this forecast, given the weather reports coming in from further south, and after watching a few more reports coming in I concluded this event was 100% rain and didn't bother to stay up to see the band arrive as I had originally intended. Sure enough I was awoken in the night by heavy rain and wind lashing the windows.

I understand what people mean when they say they were "playing it safe" but if the council reacted to the late night forecast they would have sent gritters out wasting a lot of taxpayers money and a lot of dwindling salt stocks.

I think the forecasts have been largely very good in the recent cold snaps but last night was their second poor one for my region. If even an amateur like me could pick up enough information to conclude it was highly likely going to be rain why didn't they and why didn't their late evening forecast change?

[TEITS]

OTT reaction on here if you ask me. Forecasting marginal snow has always been a nightmare and always will be. Let me tell you about a bizzare experience back in the 1990s here in Peterborough.

I was out one evening and the weather was dreadful with torrential rain and very cold temps. However despite the cold temps it remained as rain with no signs of any sleet. The next morning I popped back into the city centre and noticed some cars had nearly a foot of snow on top of them! This looked very odd considering there was no lying snow in Peterborough. Later on I discovered just 5miles away on the outskirts of Peterborough in a market town called Whittlesey they had nearly 30cm of lying snow!

The only conclusion I came up with is although Peterborough doesn't have a heat island effect like London. Obviously it was that marginal that the temps in the city centre were just that bit higher than rural parts which is why snow fell away from the city.

So lets cut the Met O some slack here!

[The PIT]

Not a over the top reaction.

Answer this if the met office knew it was a marginal situation which we all did how come they couldn't get any updated information from observers or were they all in the pub for the night.

In the information is very simple to get. If in 81 they could ring up to check the weather why not in 2010?

How many other people on here send in weather reports to the met office i bet quite a few so why can't they used in a network so the met office can update itself quickly.

[TEITS]

Not a over the top reaction.

Answer this if the met office knew it was a marginal situation which we all did how come they couldn't get any updated information from observers or were they all in the pub for the night.

In the information is very simple to get. If in 81 they could ring up to check the weather why not in 2010?

How many other people on here send in weather reports to the met office i bet quite a few so why can't they used in a network so the met office can update itself quickly.

I have no idea what your on about. The Met O removed the warnings from many areas including my own location way before the front arrived. The only warnings that existed were for high ground and even then they downplayed the amounts suggesting 2-5cm.

[Cheese Rice]

I have no idea what your on about. The Met O removed the warnings from many areas including my own location way before the front arrived. The only warnings that existed were for high ground and even then they downplayed the amounts suggesting 2-5cm.

Its irrelevant whether they downplayed the forecast as it it still rained throughout. Even here it was -0.6c and rain.

By the looks of it the Meto base all their forecasts on the NAE, as a forecaster you can't base all predictions on one model, it just isn't practical.

[cuckoo]

I have no idea what your on about. The Met O removed the warnings from many areas including my own location way before the front arrived. The only warnings that existed were for high ground and even then they downplayed the amounts suggesting 2-5cm.

Fair enough about the inital caution but the 10:30pm weather forecast was still predicting snow for my region even though there were reports of mild temperatures and heavy rain approaching. It looked to me like they were too inflexible and went down like a captain with a sinking ship continuing to predict snow. Local councils and gritters have to make decisions based on the forecasts and in this instance a lot of taxpayers money could have been wasted.

[The PIT]

I have no idea what your on about. The Met O removed the warnings from many areas including my own location way before the front arrived. The only warnings that existed were for high ground and even then they downplayed the amounts suggesting 2-5cm.

They hadn't when I looked when the front was knocking on the door here. You are thinking about the right day aren't you???

[Interitus]

OTT reaction on here if you ask me. Forecasting marginal snow has always been a nightmare and always will be. Let me tell you about a bizzare experience back in the 1990s here in Peterborough.

I was out one evening and the weather was dreadful with torrential rain and very cold temps. However despite the cold temps it remained as rain with no signs of any sleet. The next morning I popped back into the city centre and noticed some cars had nearly a foot of snow on top of them! This looked very odd considering there was no lying snow in Peterborough. Later on I discovered just 5miles away on the outskirts of Peterborough in a market town called Whittlesey they had nearly 30cm of lying snow!

Was that a forecasting balls-up too?

[Nick L]

The thing is though is that it wasn't really that marginal. Marginal to me is uppers of around -1c to -3c. Upper temperatures were forecasted to be above freezing, that's not marginal - that's just plain old rain!

The Met Office had a flash warning out for Staffordshire (2-5cm, more over higher ground) - but not even the Staffordshire moorlands had anything more than a brief, sleety mix.

But nothing riled me more than the Met Office claiming they predicted this correctly, that is simply unacceptable. I can accept them getting things wrong, but to then say afterwards "we got it right" isn't on.

[Essan]

I have no idea what your on about. The Met O removed the warnings from many areas including my own location way before the front arrived. The only warnings that existed were for high ground and even then they downplayed the amounts suggesting 2-5cm.

I think the problem is that people don't understand or properly read the warnings.

However I understand the warnings will be imporved later this year and hopefully we'll avoid the current situation where a warning for snow over the Malverns results in the whole of Worcestershire being covered by a general warning and people thinking this means heavy snow is expected in Pershore ......

Those who have been reading warnings for more than a couple of months will, of course, have understood was was meant and not have gotten the wrong impression.

[The PIT]

I think the problem is that people don't understand or properly read the warnings.

However I understand the warnings will be imporved later this year and hopefully we'll avoid the current situation where a warning for snow over the Malverns results in the whole of Worcestershire being covered by a general warning and people thinking this means heavy snow is expected in Pershore ......

Those who have been reading warnings for more than a couple of months will, of course, have understood was was meant and not have gotten the wrong impression.

People on here tend too understand warnings and can read I do assure you. Your post is rather insulting to people on these forums to be honest. You may wish to visit the regional threads before the none event and you'll see much discussion about the subject.

[Mark Burton]

So much for the big BBC snow event, talking about loud, confident and WRONG. I thought it might happen if Temps dropped away close to freezing last night - but they didn't, it was 2C at midnight here and just starting to rain. I have experienced so many of these BBC snow 'let downs', so I didn't expect snow last night! Net weather was spot on with the forcast, 2C and ice rain!!

This was my own reaction the following day to this monumental non event on my regional thread. I don't see how anyone can justify the BBC or Met Offices forcast for that night.

Edited January 3, 2011 by Mark Burton

[jimbo36]

Interesting thread this one and I have to agree with TEITS that it was always a marginal situation and a nightmare for forecasters to get right.

The real problem for the meto and bbc is the limitations on their resources and their funding with further cutbacks being made this year.

They did downgrade and removed warnings closer to zero hour.

I think the real reason and contributions to this thread is that we've got the usual childish adults who didn't get the snow they were expecting, start throwing toys out of the pram and start looking for someone to blame.

Just got to laugh really.....IMHO

[kev238]

Yeah this is all a big fuss over nothing. They did downgrade forecasts closer to the time although the warnings did seem to jump about a little. I have not heard any huge public outcry about this forecast; put simply no one cares apart from a few point scoring people on here who think they are better meteorologists than those at the Met Office. The people who criticise the Met Office for following the NAE are the same people who slavishly follow the GFS from run to run!

[jimbo36]

Yeah this is all a big fuss over nothing. They did downgrade forecasts closer to the time although the warnings did seem to jump about a little. I have not heard any huge public outcry about this forecast; put simply no one cares apart from a few point scoring people on here who think they are better meteorologists than those at the Met Office. The people who criticise the Met Office for following the NAE are the same people who slavishly follow the GFS from run to run!

Well said Kev, perhaps i will start a thread in the summer when the forecast shower didn't happen and i didn't water my garden on the strength of it and write to my MP at the same time.....if i knew who he was :-)

[Interitus]

I think the real reason and contributions to this thread is that we've got the usual childish adults who didn't get the snow they were expecting, start throwing toys out of the pram and start looking for someone to blame.

Just got to laugh really.....IMHO

Can't speak for other posters but I don't think this is the case in this instance, certainly not from my perspective. Analysis of forecasts is just as important as studying model output and have you seen the big kids drooling over snow in there?

Yeah this is all a big fuss over nothing. They did downgrade forecasts closer to the time although the warnings did seem to jump about a little. I have not heard any huge public outcry about this forecast; put simply no one cares apart from a few point scoring people on here who think they are better meteorologists than those at the Met Office. The people who criticise the Met Office for following the NAE are the same people who slavishly follow the GFS from run to run!

That would be jimbo36 then who thought that there wouldn't be much snow then bumped his own post to show he was right!

On the subject of forecast errors, it will be interesting to see if this evening's snow for the Glasgow area will come off, looks unlikely at the moment. Meto's website is playing it down much more than the warnings on the BBC forecasts.

[jimbo36]

Can't speak for other posters but I don't think this is the case in this instance, certainly not from my perspective. Analysis of forecasts is just as important as studying model output and have you seen the big kids drooling over snow in there?

That would be jimbo36 then who thought that there wouldn't be much snow then bumped his own post to show he was right!

On the subject of forecast errors, it will be interesting to see if this evening's snow for the Glasgow area will come off, looks unlikely at the moment. Meto's website is playing it down much more than the warnings on the BBC forecasts.

off course i bumped up my own post, i went against everything else and came up trumps, sure anyone would do the same and again goes to prove that meto and bbc are lacking in funding.

Agree that the Glasgow snow tonight looks unlikley but being another marginal event, guess they're playing safe. Would have thought it would have been better for them to show their forecast as marginal, then they're covered whatever happens.