London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

[snow raven]

Please continue here....

Happy New Year everyone

[john pike]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

i think i will wait for tuesdays charts to come out

have a look at London ensembles

i think something is brewing as the charts at present

seem to have serious disagreement from the 7th

this could go either way but knowing this winter

anything could happen

[West Sussex Kate]

Yep this winter has been so bad!!

[ZONE 51]

Just watching those snow showers appearing to the west across central south! wonder if their make it, with some heavier ones moving along the south coast.

[Great Plum]

It's raining, it's pouring...

[snowbob]

Met office have issued an advisory for heavy snow in the north of our region Friday. It will change but it's a start lol

[crazy_diamond]

Met office have issued an advisory for heavy snow in the north of our region Friday. It will change but it's a start lol

yay, here's hopin'

cd

[thevalley]

Biggin Hill had some snow last night -not amounting to anything but it was nice to see-the horrible damp foggy weather is do depressing - makes miss the snow. Today the sun has come through Hooray -Hope we have some real snow soon and a heavy white frost-What a big kid I am

[snow raven]

Met office have issued an advisory for heavy snow in the north of our region Friday. It will change but it's a start lol

Here's the link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?day=4

Fingers crossed for those North of the region

[Southender]

Met office have issued an advisory for heavy snow in the north of our region Friday. It will change but it's a start lol

Hmmm.

It will be a very brief event if it happens.

Only those in the very Northern parts have a stab at front edge snow for an hour or two, before heavy rain takes over.

Maybe North Essex/Herts have a shot.

More chance in the Mids/EA/Lincs I would say though.

Then again this low could track further south and give us all a brief shot at some white stuff...

[Paul Sherman]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Jan 2011 to Wednesday 2 Feb 2011:

Although temperatures are likely to be near normal in many parts of the UK (and perhaps slightly above normal in the southwest) at the start of this period, the second half of January looks likely to see a return to colder conditions in places. Sunshine amounts show a northeast/southwest split, with the northeast seeing slightly suppressed values, and the southwest around average. Precipitation amounts show a similar split: above average in the east but with the west again nearer normal. With lower-than-average temperatures for much of the period there is a risk of frost and also of some wintry weather, particularly for the east of the UK.

Updated: 1159 on Tue 4 Jan 2011

Meto Still going with what looks like a Scandi High or some sort of Blocking starting in about 14 days time, nothing showing on the Models for anything like this, maybe they are just covering themselves but the Outlook has not changed since New Years Eve

[tomavenell]

raining in hampton but with a few flakes mixed in

[Brightlight]

METO warning for heavy snow turning to rain on Friday is now covering the whole of our area?? The temps say 7/8 ??

[yamkin]

METO warning for heavy snow turning to rain on Friday is now covering the whole of our area?? The temps say 7/8 ??

The MetO's Advisory seems to be covering themselves. It is possible for the cold front to extend further South than what is being shown on the models so far. If this is the case, the MetO boffs are working over time again :lol:

Let's see what the advisory & models show tomorrow.

[john pike]

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-348.png?18

long way off but could not help myself

fi showing a classic easterly

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120.gif

528 dam line definately showing further south

on sundays fax chart

could be some twists and turns in the models yet

[yamkin]

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-348.png?18

long way off but could not help myself

fi showing a classic easterly

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120.gif

528 dam line definately showing further south

on sundays fax chart

could be some twists and turns in the models yet

Exciting times ahead

TEITS has been saying for some time now that there will be an Easterly around mid January. The trend is now there, so let's see how this pans out

I'm interested in what the MetO's Advisory update will be tomorrow regarding HEAVY SNOW for the whole of the SE on Friday

[ZONE 51]

Its Raining....

Much of the chances of snow for our region at the end of week is a fine line...a battle of airmasses is coming. those up north of of area are going to get totally pasted with snow, it won't take to much swing in air temps to include the southeast so all interest ahead, remember though it wants to be more cold than warm this winter!

im going with wet snow friday, if we can get some heavy ppn then it would cool the air anyway and overpower the ground if very heavy and settle! The next big freeze is being made..but behind the scenes.. the models are to show this at the weekend...

[john pike]

hello yamkin

i agree with you about exciting times ahead

the charts are still unsure where this low is going

look at the ensembles

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

very rare we see confusion so close

look at the blue line( Control run)

that would make gfs look mild

i think friday could cause a few surprises

and we will not know until right at the last minute

a question for you yamkin

do you remember before the last cold spell the models

had a load of problems with a low coming in and got it wrong

do you not think this seems similar

john

[Great Plum]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Jan 2011 to Wednesday 2 Feb 2011:

Although temperatures are likely to be near normal in many parts of the UK (and perhaps slightly above normal in the southwest) at the start of this period, the second half of January looks likely to see a return to colder conditions in places. Sunshine amounts show a northeast/southwest split, with the northeast seeing slightly suppressed values, and the southwest around average. Precipitation amounts show a similar split: above average in the east but with the west again nearer normal. With lower-than-average temperatures for much of the period there is a risk of frost and also of some wintry weather, particularly for the east of the UK.

Updated: 1159 on Tue 4 Jan 2011

Meto Still going with what looks like a Scandi High or some sort of Blocking starting in about 14 days time, nothing showing on the Models for anything like this, maybe they are just covering themselves but the Outlook has not changed since New Years Eve

Have you seen tonight's GFS 18z...

a number of ensembles and the control (as well as the OP) going for an Easterly in FI...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

(bound to change by the next run of course!)

[ZONE 51]

This Winters Facts:

1 - Much higher chance of Cold.

2 - Far less risk of Mild lasting.

3 - Everything seems to pull South. features shown on the models show more south movement over days or periods.

[ZONE 51]

****SNOW-WATCH****

Thursday night/Friday - this week Their is the potential for a period of prolonged and distruptive snowfall across the region.

-

Before this period from later today periods of rainfall may amount quite high.

nimbilus.

[Coast]

****SNOW-WATCH****

Thursday night/Friday - this week Their is the potential for a period of prolonged and distruptive snowfall across the region.

I just can't see it for me unfortunately, but to the very North of the region, there is a slight possibility for a few hours before the rain comes back:

Snowfall for 12 hrs ending Fri 07 Jan at 0am GMT

Snowfall for 12 hrs ending Fri 07 Jan at 12am GMT

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

[Lampostwatcher]

N24 8.57am with jay Wynn

Thursday night into Friday around midnight showed snow from south London in a line to west super mare all white !

Then quoted disruptive snow even for London as the front pushes north lasting for several hours before turning to rain when the temp rises to 5c or so

[Biggin]

Blimey getting a bit gusty here

[Bluebreezer54]

****SNOW-WATCH****

Thursday night/Friday - this week Their is the potential for a period of prolonged and distruptive snowfall across the region.

-

Before this period from later today periods of rainfall may amount quite high.

nimbilus.

Based on what ??