London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

[Lazarus]

This from Will Hand on uk.sci.weather...

There are now indications on some ECMWF products I have seen today for a

stratospheric warming event starting roundabout the 11th. This will rapidly

build pressure over Siberia and transfer the extremely cold sub 480 DAM air

westwards towards Jan Mayen. Any mild interlude next week is consequently

likely to be very short lived and models will struggle in the next day or

three looking more than 4 days ahead. The second half of january is likely

to be bitter, possibly record breaking.

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Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

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[willinkent]

This from Will Hand on uk.sci.weather...

There are now indications on some ECMWF products I have seen today for a

stratospheric warming event starting roundabout the 11th. This will rapidly

build pressure over Siberia and transfer the extremely cold sub 480 DAM air

westwards towards Jan Mayen. Any mild interlude next week is consequently

likely to be very short lived and models will struggle in the next day or

three looking more than 4 days ahead. The second half of january is likely

to be bitter, possibly record breaking.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

-----------------------------------------------------------

thats what we like to hear..... esp after i get back from snowmaghedon in denmark....woopwoop

[Lazarus]

thats what we like to hear..... esp after i get back from snowmaghedon in denmark....woopwoop

Thought it might cheer a few folks up!

[msx999]

Thought it might cheer a few folks up!

Definately cheered me up, how reliable is the source?

[Lazarus]

Definately cheered me up, how reliable is the source?

Meto forecaster I believe... http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weather.htm To be honest he's the guy I listen to for stuff like this. Proven right more times than my seaweed that's for sure!

[john pike]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

interesting ensemble for london

could be interesting for us 9th to 11th

there is still a big spread of temperatures after the 11th

so it still looks like a very uncertain period after that

however in fi there seems to be more colder options showing

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/

fax charts have improved showing 528 dam over the uk on monday

if everything moved further west these charts would be

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

met office still keeping the warnings up

i am not commenting on this because i do not have a clue

[john pike]

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-1-384.png?18

just for fun

[mulzy]

Definately cheered me up, how reliable is the source?

Will Hand is a bit of cold ramper.

However MetOffice longer term outlook still suggesting a colder second half of January so who know?

[ZONE 51]

All exciting and very interesting, if you understand the stratosphere then its more exciting...we are in for a very cold and snowy prolonged period, the models at the weekend are going to be making cold lovers party....

[West Sussex Kate]

What a winter!!

[ZONE 51]

*****SNOW*WATCH*****

.Later Today

.Tonight

.Overnight into Friday

*Turning Colder later today with rain turning to snow in places

*Their is a high risk of Snowfall Thursday night into Friday across the region

*Distruption risk due to falling snow reducing visibility and settling snow

-

nimbilus

[Great Plum]

Just had a look at the automated forecast on the met and it is just showing rain for tonight and tomorrow now... I wouldnt expect snow now sadly...

[Jayces]

We may well get snow in the next 24 hours but I can't see it being for very long or settling.

[Harry]

Precisely...yes there may be snow, but I cannot see it will settle much, if at all. Temperatures haven't been at or below freezing now for some time and what with the all rainfall around at the moment, there will need to be a pretty significant drop in air/ground temperatures before the snow begins falling, for any of it to settle. What with the rain around at the moment, this IMO will further hinder the snow settling.

[Swave Snow]

Its coming

[crazy_diamond]

Its coming

Wow, Swave, that's so bald a statement it sounds ominous! What's your confidence based on?

cd

[BLUNT]

Out of interest why from next tuesday temps here are showing double figures and a strong SW airflow,and its not changing is the GFS out?

[camiscool]

It's not actually mild today current temperature 3.7 surely

This will drop and allow snow

[crazy_diamond]

Out of interest why from next tuesday temps here are showing double figures and a strong SW airflow,and its not changing is the GFS out?

Hi Blunt

Not that I have any understanding nor experience of the models, but in the Model Output thread it's been reported for a while now that we shall be getting some mild air up from the Atlantic. The arguments seem to be around how mild is mild and whether or not this phase will be transitory. But, heck, it's too dangerous in there for an meteorilogical novice as I am to raise my head above the parapet to ask for clarification.

cd

[BLUNT]

Just rather puzzled, because people on here are talking about a block to the East from mid month onwards, just looking at the GFS it is showing it is getting milder double figures plus from Tuesday then getting cooler than milder again and so on typical English weather.

Also out of interest is there a section, or could be set up on this site Novices such as me can talk about models

without being totally confused, on the other threads it is a bit more technical and feel rather silly if you post something, i have been studying the weather for twenty years or so but want to know how the models work more, i have always been brought up with no computers, doing my own forecasts by looking out the window and going to the Met Office in Holborn when it was there.

[crazy_diamond]

lol, you have roughly nineteen years and ten months more knowledge than I, then! :blush:

cd

Not than I'm 19 yrs old,

Edited January 6, 2011 by crazy_diamond

[thevalley]

Just rather puzzled, because people on here are talking about a block to the East from mid month onwards, just looking at the GFS it is showing it is getting milder double figures plus from Tuesday then getting cooler than milder again and so on typical English weather.

Also out of interest is there a section, or could be set up on this site Novices such as me can talk about models

without being totally confused, on the other threads it is a bit more technical and feel rather silly if you post something, i have been studying the weather for twenty years or so but want to know how the models work more, i have always been brought up with no computers, doing my own forecasts by looking out the window and going to the Met Office in Holborn when it was there.

Hi Blunt I'm in the same boat - been following and been interested in the charts and weather for many years and I thought its about time I learnt more -Just your remark re ; Met Office at Holborn -When I was working in the City -every lunch time I would walk up to Holborn to get an update on the Weather-Fantastic when there was a cold spell especially in the late seventies and early eighties when it was quite something to see London mid- day temps at( -4/5c ) and even lower than -6c once.

Edited January 6, 2011 by thevalley

[BLUNT]

Yep, that is what i used to do i was working in Chancery Lane walked up the road to the Met Office at Lunch times, even when i worked at Liverpool Street i used to go there, trying to think of that year i think the temp didnt get above -5c, no cars on the road had to struggle to get to work on the trains, they still ran a service when there was a foot of snow on the ground, every day for three weeks it snowed we had a Easterly with heavy snow showers, blocking high to the North streatched all the way to the other side of the Atlantic,Lows broke through round the high to the North and it split the high, the air came all the way from Siberia, probably 1984/5 i think, my friend had a XR2 B REG New

[JamesC]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

If only that was snow!!!

Would be a a foot widespread.....easily.

[BLUNT]

To mild out there, if only the lows would track more south and allow the Northerly in.

Crazy Diamond you around 24-25?? probably cant remember any decent winters apart from this year?