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Yorkshire, Lincs And The Pennines - Cold Spell Discussion 13


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL

Here it comes:

Into better timeframe too;

Not really mate because a few days ago the cold charts were around that timeframe, and here we are a few days later and the cold charts are still 2 weeks away.There is every chance that the coming runs could bring it much closer though and hopefully that will happen.Nice username BTW :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Some nice eye-candy there Lewis, way out in the realms of FI, but would be very nice if they verify....A shallow channel low giving the south a possible rain to snow event, snow for the midlands, and plenty of snow showers into the Yorkshire/Lincs coast

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

Those charts really are mouthwatering mate. Wouldn't it be great if they verified? The temperature here is on the decrease now, down to 7.4 lol

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull

Some nice eye-candy there Lewis, way out in the realms of FI, but would be very nice if they verify....A shallow channel low giving the south a possible rain to snow event, snow for the midlands, and plenty of snow showers into the Yorkshire/Lincs coast

Yep Indeed, would bring us all something :)

Also SUFC your correct, sorry my post was a little misleading.

What I mean is that for some reason on this 18z they seems to be more "organization to how we get there, with the pattern (the LP and the blocking) and with it being in/towards FI you would not normally see much of that :)

lewis

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Posted
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL

The temperature here is on the decrease now, down to 7.4 lol

Crikey it's been a long while since the temps were that high in our region lol.Humberside airport is at 7c.

Hopefully the mild spell gets downgraded in the coming days,but quite a bit of rain to come next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Temperatures remain below freezing here and with a bit of luck should hold on to snow cover.

I'm watching Tuesday very carefully, we could see a frontal snow event during the early hours. Atm it's looking too marginal for Yorkshire, but when you compare this to what the 12z showed this is a vast improvement, infact when I compared previous runs over the last few days it shows a steady progression south of the low. If this is a trend and we see the low further south then timing and precipitation look perfect for a decent frontal snow event, something these parts haven't seen since Dec 08. This wouldn't turn to rain either as unlikes todays low this one doesn't have a notable mild sector, with the precipitation in the colder 850's, a shift of say 50 Miles would put us into the snow to zone.

post-8968-0-83829700-1294442194_thumb.pn

Edit: Actually we would need a slight upgrade of the 850's, because before the precipitation hit the 850's are predicted to be at -2.c, -3.c or lower would be preferable for this area even lower for coastal districts.

Edited by cheeserice
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull

Temperatures remain below freezing here and with a bit of luck should hold on to snow cover.

I'm watching Tuesday very carefully, we could see a frontal snow event during the early hours. Atm it's looking too marginal for Yorkshire, but when you compare this to what the 12z showed this is a vast improvement, infact when I compared previous runs over the last few days it shows a steady progression south of the low. If this is a trend and we see the low further south then timing and precipitation look perfect for a decent frontal snow event, something these parts haven't seen since Dec 08. This wouldn't turn to rain either as unlikes todays low this one doesn't have a notable mild sector, with the precipitation in the colder 850's, a shift of say 50 Miles would put us into the snow to zone.

post-8968-0-83829700-1294442194_thumb.pn

Hi Cheeserice,

Continue with the southwards progression, and we would end up with the precipitation somewhere else, so in Sense, we cannot win?

Only way we will win is if the colder upper 850's stagnate and stick around, form some kind of battle or even mix out the warmer air, which I would say is near enough extremely slim.

bed-time.

Good night all, hope tomorrows runs continue with the FI beasterly/north easterly.

lewis

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

I would normally agree but as I said earlier the precipitation isn't associated with the warm sector.

Quite unusual really.

if you look at the N.Atlantic PPN charts even if shifted 200 Miles further south it wouldn't matter as the precipitation reaches Iceland!

post-8968-0-99040200-1294442566_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

Temperature up to 4.4c here with a steady thaw, still 100% snow cover though.

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL

Alot of changes to that low today as the offshore winds have lessend meaning a nice pulse of northerly ground swell for saturdays surf and those westerlies had been toned down until 6pm so just shows how much it can change in 24hours :)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Will be interesting to see whether the warm 850's reach here, temperatures remain sub zero and even in Leeds center nearly down to sea level it's below 1.c.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Nae and NMM both going for two possible snowfalls over parts of West/North West Yorks tomorrow.

Hopefully we will see a southwards progression than currently projected.

post-8968-0-83452700-1294444713_thumb.pn

post-8968-0-25370100-1294444720_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Hubberton up in the Pennines, 260m
  • Location: Hubberton up in the Pennines, 260m

Cheeserice i'd rather it rained and gave everything a good wash down, transitional snow is pointless.

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Posted
  • Location: W Leeds 164m ASL
  • Location: W Leeds 164m ASL

Anyone looking at the potential for tonite.?

Cold WNW quite often give good sleet / snow showers to W Yorks....?

Certainly plenty of action in NI / Irish Sea at the moment coming this way??

Could hit us at the right time?

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull

4.1C here with a dew of 1c.

Will start cooling down now I suspect, with temps hitting around 1-2c tonight (depending on cloud cover). Showers tonight won't penetrate that inland (Can't see many getting this side of the penines) on top of that most of it falling as sleet/rain to lower ground with areas above 200m seeing snow.

Lewis

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

We have had some light snow showers today with temps of 1c.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Looks like a trough is forming over the Irish sea, one line of showers made it inland but died of pretty quickly, this one seems to be heavier more organized. Hopefully the Pennines won't suck all the energy out.

Edited by cheeserice
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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

Looks like a trough is forming over the Irish sea, one line of showers made it inland but died of pretty quickly, this one seems to be heavier more organized. Hopefully the Pennines won't suck all the energy out.

Im watching too, hopefully it wont just go north of us closedeyes.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

Ive just made a post in the model thread about my thoughts on the outlook, thought Id might as well post it here too

Although the teleconnection's aren't too favourable for another lengthy cold spell, it wouldn't take too much to change that.

Ive been watching the NAO/AO in particular throughout the whole winter and they are quite prone to changing there predictions quite sharply within just a couple of days..

(nao)

http://www.cpc.noaa....a/nao.sprd2.gif

(ao)

http://www.cpc.noaa....dex/ao.fcst.gif

Looking at them now the NAO is certainly heading in the right direction, we should be looking at an index of -1 towards the end of the month. This should be sumarized by less storms travelling from west to east across america, which would hopefully give the greenland high more of a chance to build as there would be less energy heading off the eastern sea board of america :)

Now the AO, after a steady decline towards 16th january most perpetrations hint at a sharp rise, this could be a sign of the atlantic once again picking up with storms tracking further north.. closedeyes.gif

So all in all I stick by my predictions of a cool zonal flow eventally becoming a more mild zonal flow. I still dont think this will last long, maybe 7-10 days, before we eventually see a rise of pressure to the north bringing in a more colder east/north easterly airflow..

Still how long this will last for or how severe is still up for grabs, but I think everything is still heading in the right direction.

The early signs are now starting to show up on the gfs (FI i know but is a start), what we need is for the ECM to start showing similar scenarios as for me the ecm is the front runner in picking up the early signs of a more continental flow.

Edited by Harsh Climate
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull

Quick one from me (Posted in model thread too)

We all know what happens with the ECMWF,

The GFS is rather bullish consistently showing a much colder FI, with the GH developing, with a block in place to the North Pole, allowing our weather to be influenced from a continental cold flow.

I suspect that we won't be any closer to knowing what's going to happen over the next 48-72 hours.

More like 4-5 days at best, one thing I will say though, is if we continue to see the GFS predicting the same in deep FI, with the colder incursion shunted deeper and deeper into FI, and the ECMWF not going with the idea RE the GH developing, I would be a little worried, we all know how consistent the GFS normally is resetting to a milder zonality in deep FI, this is no different tbh, just because it's showing a colder evolution then your normal "expected" milder zonality towards the FI territory just opens up the verification debate (of will it happen) even more.

A lot of remarks are normally "here is the break down in FI on the GFS with the Atlantic coming through", how many times does it occur? sometimes it does, sometimes it does not.

"The over-all signals are not exactly favourable on prolonged cold" but they are certainly not favourable for prolonged mild zonality.

All I will say is that the AO decides to stay negative for a while before going neutral to +, with the NAO going neutral for a time then becoming negative. So if the AO and NAO is anything to go by, it's going to be a mix bag. Another thing that we do have to think about is how messy it is out there, as with a neutral to negative NAO with a neutral-negative AO you can end up on the wrong side of the block.

Resized to -6% (was 600 x 800) - Click image to enlargenao.sprd2.gif

There is no difference from now, going back to a few weeks ago. At the moment the AO and NAO are not as favourable as they was during the Nov/Dec cold snaps. Of course it could be worse, what we would want is that NAO to get negative and stay there (or become more negative).

Another thing RE signals, is anything can happen. The NAO and AO patterns are not gospel.

What would be nice to see is some agreement with the ECMWF over the coming 4-5 days, already it's showing some colder air to the North on the 12z run into FI territory, but it has the idea of introducing a milder zonal flow again.

Regards

lewis

Edited by Morning Glory
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Looks like we won't see any showers till around 11 PM onwards, not until the flow changes to West/North Westerly, currently North Westerly but with a South West component.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull

Looks like we won't see any showers till around 11 PM onwards, not until the flow changes to West/North Westerly, currently North Westerly but with a South West component.

Just looked at the NMM model and it's showing some beefy showers, but it does not expect them to make it over the pennines. I hope they do, but tbh can't see it happening.

post-12083-0-58716300-1294519698_thumb.ppost-12083-0-24651000-1294519707_thumb.p

Edited by Morning Glory
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Just looked at the NMM model and it's showing some beefy showers, but it does not expect them to make it over the pennines. I hope they do, but tbh can't see it happening.

post-12083-0-58716300-1294519698_thumb.ppost-12083-0-24651000-1294519707_thumb.p

As long as it is not a very organized trough we will do fine, the showers will affect North Leeds/Ilkley/Skipton providing the flow is the right.

On the satellite image I have highlighted the main hills/Pennines, the gap is where the arrow is.

There are many examples of where North Leeds has seen significantly more snow than the rest because of this gap e.g 19-22nd December 2008, NW winds brought 5 cm to this area of Yorkshire. 6-9th Jan 2010 brought an extra 7 Cm here, the reports are in the regional threads but I can't be bothered finding them.

post-8968-0-60378000-1294521815_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull

As long as it is not a very organized trough we will do fine, the showers will affect North Leeds/Ilkley/Skipton providing the flow is the right.

On the satellite image I have highlighted the main hills/Pennines, the gap is where the arrow is.

There are many examples of where North Leeds has seen significantly more snow than the rest because of this gap e.g 19-22nd December 2008, NW winds brought 5 cm to this area of Yorkshire. 6-9th Jan 2010 brought an extra 7 Cm here, the reports are in the regional threads but I can't be bothered finding them.

post-8968-0-60378000-1294521815_thumb.pn

Suppose it's possible.

But I think it's a organised trough shown on the NMM and GFS. So on a whole I expect it to weaken, if not head North of Leeds as Harsh Climate mentioned earlier, I would love it to travel west/to east and hit Leeds then come across here, but cannot see it happening, them pennines are a killer lol.

I'll keep an eye on the radar.

lewis

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

If it does come of as I suggested then it would die out over north Leeds, they always do for some reason, typically the radar shows a heavy snow shower over Leeds then on the next update it's completely disappeared. Perhaps the flow is cut of by the Pennines to the extent that the showers can't go further than Leeds.

Edited by cheeserice
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