New Model Analysts' Thread

[chionomaniac]

OON's introduction to the new thread states that it will "hopefully give a concise insight for those of us wanting a quick-stop update" - which is just as well because there have only been two posts today, from first thing this morning, and only 18 overall.

Meantime some of the invited members have posted numerous times in the normal model discussion, so what is the point?

Maybe it would be better to have a more 'official' netweather statement of the model analysis if this one-stop shop is wanted and just keep the normal model thread well modded.

I think that is more due to the mild outlook and a lack of change in the output. Everywhere is quieter as a result. If and when things hot up ( by that I mean cool down!) I am sure the true value of the thread will be shown.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

No one is under any obligation to post in it...they're all volunteers, and the whole point is to give a daily update when possible, normally around early evening. As Chionomaniac says, it's not an especially exciting period for the models right now, and it is the weekend, so people might be busy!

As for the contributors posting elsewhere more frequently, that too is the whole point!

Personally, I think it's doing exactly what we hoped it would.

[phil nw.]

No one is under any obligation to post in it...they're all volunteers, and the whole point is to give a daily update when possible, normally around early evening. As Chionomaniac says, it's not an especially exciting period for the models right now, and it is the weekend, so people might be busy!

As for the contributors posting elsewhere more frequently, that too is the whole point!

Personally, I think it's doing exactly what we hoped it would.

For the new thread to be a reference point for people to go to for a daily model update though OON it should`nt rely on the level of interest or availabilty of volunteers surely.

If that is it`s main purpose then why not simply have one of the forecast team do a model update daily as part of their duties to the site.

It would be unbiased and not suffer when the charts are showing mild and not very exciting and therefore some volunteers are less likely to post.

I mean no disrespect to the said volunteers--just an observation.

Actually i quite like the way the general thread has developed lately--a lot of good posting incl.the named experts-let`s keep it up.

Edited January 9, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[lorenzo]

I would suggest that Gibbys summaries be transferred to this thread as they seem to regularly coincide with the main model runs.

[Bobafet]

I like the new thread, generally when looking at the Model thread these are the posters I look out for as they generally explain the models in a way in which I could only dream of. Excellent idea and one I will certainly look at first.

[virtualsphere]

This is proving an excellent idea. I regularly read the model threads but don't post very often as I'm still trying to learn how to interpret the charts properly. As others have said, those chosen to post in the new thread are names I would look out for to give some detailed, readable analysis of the model output. No disrespect to others who post, as I enjoy reading all the comments, especially when I have more time to go through them. When I've been at work though, I enjoy reading a detailed summary of the output from one of the respected members first to give a sense of perspective, and the new thread has made this really easy to do.

The amount of posting has also worked well as there's not too much to catch up on, but there have so far been enough posts to keep me wanting to check back regularly.

Thanks to everyone who posts in both threads - I only know a little but wouldn't understand half as much without your input and interpretation!

[Weather-history]

I thought this thread is suppose to be a model analyst discussion?

I don't find this kind of analyst useful to put it bluntly by mushymanrob.

"As pretty much expected, this mornings runs have dropped the phantom high somewhat, even the gfs has it so close that any real cold is short lived... so a continuation of 'normal' january weather looks likely through the middle of the month."

The others give a detail analyst and their thoughts backed up with links and charts. They don't talk about phantom highs etc.

Edited January 12, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Well, you're right about one thing; you put it bluntly.

Perhaps we should vote one participant off each week via a phone in? We could make a killing.

[Cloud 10]

Perhaps we should vote one participant off each week via a phone in? We could make a killing.

"I'm a model analyst,get me out of here"

[Buzzit]

Or the "Polar Vortex Factor"

But seriously the concept of the analyst only thread is great - but it also requires a certain level of commitment and quality of post from its members.

I personally dont care if posting in the analyst only thread is infrequent but I do care if it is a one paragraph blah post

[mushymanrob]

I thought this thread is suppose to be a model analyst discussion?

I don't find this kind of analyst useful to put it bluntly by mushymanrob.

"As pretty much expected, this mornings runs have dropped the phantom high somewhat, even the gfs has it so close that any real cold is short lived... so a continuation of 'normal' january weather looks likely through the middle of the month."

The others give a detail analyst and their thoughts backed up with links and charts. They don't talk about phantom highs etc.

i love you too mr d....lol

im the token mildy to balance things away from the cold bias!

but seriously, when i was approached it was the very question i asked oon... im no deep analasyst, i cannot compete with the others on there in that department, i dont claim too either, tbh its a bit embarrassing because im fully aware of my limitations. however oon wanted a cross section of posters and regarded my style as apt for the position... dunno why but hey ho, ill do what i can as long as its required.

Edited January 13, 2011 by mushymanrob

[noggin]

Having just popped in to the Model Output Discussion thread, all I can say is "thank goodness for the new analysts' discussion thread". For little old me, who just wants to know how things are looking without having to trawl through the arguing and point scoring, it's a Godsend! Please keep it open.

I appreciate, however, that some people actually like the cut and thrust of the other thread, but it doesn't do it for me.

Thank you.

[Lisa Diane]

Following some of the feedback within the running of the model thread, we gave some thought as to how people who don't have the time, or the inclination, to search through the model discussion thread to find out what's going on, could be catered for. So, we've decided to try a thread whereby the forecast team, and a selected group of members, briefly give their thoughts on the models once a day in a thread visible to all, but locked except to those participating. This is in no way aimed to detract from the model discussion thread. Instead, in addition to giving people easy access to the main themes of the models, we hope it might go on to lead to a slightly more structured debate within the existing model thread. It might even allow us to be slightly more relaxed on the moderation within the existing thread, but don't hold me to that!

So, in addition the the forecasting team (Nick F, Glacier Point, Jackone and Thundery Wintry Showers), we've asked Chionomaniac, Mushymanrob, Nick Sussex, Oldmetman, Roger J Smith, Steve Murr, The Eye In The Sky and Weather Eater to give their views too. I really want to stress that there were almost countless people we could have invited to join in, but we wanted a relatively small group and feel those asked will provide a good cross section of both preferences and ways of interpreting the huge amounts of information out there. Of course, all participants will still be entirely free to join in the existing thread.

We hope to start this off later today, and it's expected that early evening each day (but not exclusively at that time), those participants who are able to will give their thoughts and perhaps a brief bit of debate.

Thanks you for the post.