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North West England - Slightly Less Cold Spell Discussion Part 21


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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle

To be honest it look wet for all parts of Cumbria, the Eden is not the main cause for concern it's the petrol and caldew they can rise really fast. This coupled with strong winds and high tide might cause some real problems.

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Posted
  • Location: Teesdale,Co Durham. 360m asl
  • Location: Teesdale,Co Durham. 360m asl

Of course the Central parts of the Lakes will see the highest totals. But my point was in regard to rainfall distribution, not totals. 2009 was a Lakes focused event. This time I would expect a more widespread event, to include the Howgill and Pennine rivers catchments aswell.

Edited by Tucco
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Posted
  • Location: Teesdale,Co Durham. 360m asl
  • Location: Teesdale,Co Durham. 360m asl

However if we go by the 00z it might not be that bad, the rain is not that heavy and its not over us for as long.

As with all events only proof is afterwards.

I would stick to fax's and meto invent at this stage though.

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Posted
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Clod snowy Winters
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border

BBC has us down to -3 on tuesday night

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Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham

BBC forecasters are now say 100-120mm of rain, thats down on 200mm that was forecast by john hammond last night.

it could very well be revised back up though.just hope it isn't too bad for you folks over there, take care.peter

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Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham

It will test out our new flood defences that for sure, however water has to go somewhere :cc_confused:

any idea what the predicted tide heights are?

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Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham

on the hi-res precip.it barely moves for hours and looks to just keep dumping rain.

looks like a constant 18hrs worth. :blink:

Edited by peterf
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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

It's a neep tide around the coast here ATM as the moon is not yet full so tides should not be anything to wurrey about at least in Liverpool bay.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

What an awful weekend of weather for cumbria, Meto say 150mm of rain possible to to run into the rivers, early warning out for cumbria. The rivers are already at the top of the banks, not looking good could this be a re run of Nov 09, i really hope not. Acompanied by gales gusting 50-60mph.

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Posted
  • Location: Maryport, Cumbria, UK
  • Location: Maryport, Cumbria, UK

What an awful weekend of weather for cumbria, Meto say 150mm of rain possible to to run into the rivers, early warning out for cumbria. The rivers are already at the top of the banks, not looking good could this be a re run of Nov 09, i really hope not. Acompanied by gales gusting 50-60mph.

Laura Tobin really downplayed it on the lunchtime BBC weather. Said 'an inch or two'. Perhaps this means the Met Office don't think it will be too bad, but have used the warnings on their website just to cover themselves.

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Posted
  • Location: Mossley, Nr Saddleworth / Oldham.
  • Location: Mossley, Nr Saddleworth / Oldham.

The situation does not look good for Cumbria over the weekend unfortunately.

METO still going with 150mm+ totals over the highest fells - which will of course run off into the rivers. That is an exceptional amount of rain in probably less than 24 hours - exceptional for the UK at least. Serious flooding very possible I would say - and no doubt the Met Office will be issuing flash warnings nearer the time.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I'm bracing myself for the worse, as ever it will be down to nowcasting, we could see the rain ease in intensity for a short while later tomorrow only for further resurgence overnight - it will be Sunday afternoon and evening when the rivers will really be forced to feel the full affects.

Some of the lakeland rivers are the fastest flowing in the country, rivers like the River Kent rise very quickly indeed, too quickly to control and we experience falsh flooding in settlements like Burneside and Kendal even from relatively moderate falls of rain. 8 inches will cause much damage I fear. Also expect some of the lakes to start to overflow, lake windermere no doubt will begin to overflow across the A591 in parts and at Bowness Bay, but I am not expecting a repeat of Nov 2009 thank goodness..

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Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham

hi folks tonights 18z looks really bad for Cumbria.are your local radio stations issuing any info to the public?

that could end up 15 hrs constant heavy rain,cant be good that.peter

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Well the next 24-48 hours will be nail biting for some here in cumbria, especially those who are prone to flooding. I just hope that the worse is not reality as the community would be devesated again should there be anything like Nov 09, even half as bad as that would still be to much. A conveyor belt of rain being fed along the front which strecthes out into the atlantic.

Accopmanied by gales with gusts possible over 60mph, western ireland is now being battered with gales with wind speeds exceeding the progged values already, looking at xc wind map. A rough time ahead.

Stay safe, and dont take any chances, listen to the local radio/environment agancy.

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Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire

It's a neep tide around the coast here ATM as the moon is not yet full so tides should not be anything to wurrey about at least in Liverpool bay.

Hello,

At this end of the Mersey, we very rarely if ever get heavy rain / moderate rain. Usually it's light to drizzle.

So that's what I'm expecting in my area tomorrow. It's been rather drizzly here for a couple of days now,

and the incoming rain while quite high 20-40mm seems a bit too excessive for our area. I wouldn't

be surprised if it was more or less 5mm max over these parts

Edited by HotCuppa
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Posted
  • Location: Teesdale,Co Durham. 360m asl
  • Location: Teesdale,Co Durham. 360m asl

Well the next 24-48 hours will be nail biting for some here in cumbria, especially those who are prone to flooding. I just hope that the worse is not reality as the community would be devesated again should there be anything like Nov 09, even half as bad as that would still be to much. A conveyor belt of rain being fed along the front which strecthes out into the atlantic.

Accopmanied by gales with gusts possible over 60mph, western ireland is now being battered with gales with wind speeds exceeding the progged values already, looking at xc wind map. A rough time ahead.

Stay safe, and dont take any chances, listen to the local radio/environment agancy.

Rainfall distribution looks more like a lesser version of Jan 2005, not Nov 2009. The whole of Cumbria looks to be effected this time,

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

temp here is 12.7c. You maybe right HC, we don't seem to get as much rain here than cumbria in these settups.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Lol, we've had about 0.1mm here overnight.

Where's these big totals? First band broke up as it got to us. :D

Just been thinking.

If this even was going to be snow event, how GUTTED would people in my area be?

0-1mm of rain forecast by the NMM whilst places around us are forecast 50-80mm of rain.

That's 0-1cm of snow for me, 50-80cm for most of the NW. I imagine I would flip out worse than I have ever done before.

Edited by Backtrack
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Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

chucking it down here

what kind of wind speeds are we talking tonight anything as bad as nov, well i think it was november?

hope this is not the end of winter cant put up with this for long in whats supposed to be winter.

EDIT....horizontal rain now

Edited by wheresmysnow
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Posted
  • Location: LANCS. 12 miles NE of Preston at the SW corner of the Bowland Fells. 550ft, 170m approx.
  • Location: LANCS. 12 miles NE of Preston at the SW corner of the Bowland Fells. 550ft, 170m approx.

Bucketing down here. Collected 13.4mm at 9am. Rain started 2.30am and non stop since then.

Drains and ditches were full last week, so now there's floods about. Fells shrouded in low cloud.

And strong SW to add to the misery.

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