Ireland - Winter/Spring Weather Discussion Part 6

[kimmirut]

??Well your wrong there,the temp here is 0.4c

You tell them I hate it when people try and tell me that the weather in my local weather is wrong because some weather station 20miles away is warmer ugh (no replies to this)

[The watcher]

For goodness sake, can we not go 1 day without these rubbish debates. Temperature is also below 3c here (we've been the warmest in this cooler spell) currently 2.5c.

[kimmirut]

I agree watcher people should except it and get over it if this continues I'm not even gonna bother

[stormforce 10]

well for once I have to agree with kimmirut. -8c could be achieved somewher in Ireland tonight. its already -1.7c here with a hard frost.

Anyway what a beautiful night, clear, starry with a full moon. very bright tonight, visibility excellent. very cold with severe frost setting in. currently outside temp -1.7c.

todays max 5.4c, a beautiful sunny day crisp day with wall to wall sunshine.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Have to say I seriously doubt it will hit -8C tonight, at least not at any official stations.

Btw, Backtrack made the comment over an hour ago, probably based on readings at 6pm, so it was probably more accurate then.

[kimmirut]

Just been out to observe the icy conditions and see whats going on and its a gorgeous evening out there perfect visibility you wouldn't even think it was dark you can see really far i can see slemish and islay from my house as well as knocklayde in ballycastle not one cloud either doesn't feel cold either its great perfect conditions.. temp is -2c which is helping alot of black ice form and a hard frost, doubt any fog will form tonight the visibility is too good.

[The watcher]

Alot of the forecasters in the model thread now beginning to agree with what I said the other day, the HP will stay around for longer than anticipated, possibly right until months end, which then will be a pivotal point (at least I believe) to a NE regime.

[kimmirut]

Alot of the forecasters in the model thread now beginning to agree with what I said the other day, the HP will stay around for longer than anticipated, possibly right until months end, which then will be a pivotal point (at least I believe) to a NE regime.

Would this mean the days would get colder and colder until eventually we see what we got in december ice days and very cold mins??? Its heading that way now anyway.

[stormforce 10]

Alot of the forecasters in the model thread now beginning to agree with what I said the other day, the HP will stay around for longer than anticipated, possibly right until months end, which then will be a pivotal point (at least I believe) to a NE regime.

fair play to ya watcher. your forecast is pretty spot on so far.

[Isolated Frost]

Would this mean the days would get colder and colder until eventually we see what we got in december ice days and very cold mins??? Its heading that way now anyway.

It is? I'm not sure 1 frost does mean that.

I don't think Dec 2010 will be eclipsed for a very, VERY long time, Jan 2010 was the set standard, and Dec 2010 has blown that away, so you never know, but current patterns, and the current situation with the retrogression, amplification and upstream pattern isn't favourable to much cold.

5C by day, and some slight, to moderate frosts for a while for much of Ireland, maybe with cloud scuppering chances at times, but I think Dec 2010 can wait a while.

I agree with The Watcher's forecast, average to slightly below, I'd go pretty much the same, albeit 1C milder, but I think that forecast is up there with GP's in terms of MY OPINION for Feb, of course BFTP/RJS are going down a WHOLE different route...

[The watcher]

Would this mean the days would get colder and colder until eventually we see what we got in december ice days and very cold mins??? Its heading that way now anyway.

No, at some point the HP isn't going to be so fresh, we'll start to see alot of high cloud around and thus temps won't be very variable.

However, until that time we've some frosty nights to look forward to, but I don't see extreme minima happening (ie below -10).

Probably minimas of -4/5 tonight, maybe getting slightly colder tommorow night.

We won't see extreme minima in a HP of this stature because:

1. No snowcover

2. No embedded cold

3. Wind Direction (even with what little there is)

4. No cold uppers (ie -5/-10 etc)

It's a little diddy we call "Faux Cold" when HP causes colder temperatures due to inversion.

[BornFromTheVoid]

There's also the fact that the dew points are a bit higher now which will slow the temperature drop during the night, unlike December where we had the dry continental air.

If it wasn't for the freezing conditions of December and last January the minima over the coming week would be considered very cold!

Edited January 18, 2011 by BornFromTheVoid

[kimmirut]

No, at some point the HP isn't going to be so fresh, we'll start to see alot of high cloud around and thus temps won't be very variable.

However, until that time we've some frosty nights to look forward to, but I don't see extreme minima happening (ie below -10).

Probably minimas of -4/5 tonight, maybe getting slightly colder tommorow night.

We won't see extreme minima in a HP of this stature because:

1. No snowcover

2. No embedded cold

3. Wind Direction (even with what little there is)

4. No cold uppers (ie -5/-10 etc)

It's a little diddy we call "Faux Cold" when HP causes colder temperatures due to inversion.

Ok so cold ice days etc but not as cold as december so say -1c in the day not -8c.. i'd take that considering we don't normally get that but now that is becoming normal after the last 4 years.

Edited January 18, 2011 by kimmirut

[Isolated Frost]

Ok so cold ice days etc but not as cold as december so say -1c in the day not -8c.. i'd take that considering we don't normally get that but now that is becoming normal after the last 4 years.

-1C by night, right?

I'd say 3-4C by day, and -1 to -3C by night, under clear skies, 1C to 3C under cloudy skies at night.

EDIT: And how is it normal? The average high in Dec 2010 ranged from 1C in the coldest of climes, and the 5C in the much warmer, and was the coldest month in me and your lives put together.

For -1C to be the norm is mad! 6C is the norm for much of NI, possibly 7/8C for the Coastline, 8/9C for the south coast, possibly 5/6C for mainland Higher Ireland, 4C for the extremes of the Highlands.

You are expecting alot, and even your VERY frosty hollow can't have what you think, if you get an Ice Day this week, I'll eat my words.

Edited January 18, 2011 by Isolated Frost

[Backtrack]

??Well your wrong there,the temp here is 0.4c

I was looking at official met office stations . Not local.

Ok so cold ice days etc but not as cold as december so say -1c in the day not -8c.. i'd take that considering we don't normally get that but now that is becoming normal after the last 4 years.

At what point in anyone's forecast does it even mention ice days?

Look at the GFS or ECM.

NONE of the models come even close to giving ice days away from the extreme rural areas that are the Scottish Highlands.

Edited January 18, 2011 by Backtrack

[The watcher]

There's also the fact that the dew points are a bit higher now which will slow the temperature drop during the night, unlike December where we had the dry continental air.

If it wasn't for the freezing conditions of December and last January the minima over the coming week would be considered very cold!

Indeed, humidity is very high atm, 91% here. A sure sign that a few days down the line we could well be seeing dank days with cloud cover.

I think day maxs will be 3/4c probably 1/2c in favoured locations for lingering cold. Night mins will probably be -3/-4, maybe hitting -6 in prone locations.

[kimmirut]

I was looking at official met office stations . Not local.

At what point in anyone's forecast does it even mention ice days?

Look at the GFS or ECM.

NONE of the models come even close to giving ice days away from the extreme rural areas that are the Scottish Highlands.

They don't have metoffice stations but a similar idea... whatever if we get low mins we can get ice days and the models are always wrong anyway way temperatures and yes they do 2c for me all week. I think the gfs temperature swings are a little bit dramatic for the middle of january i mean 12c in the winter no way.

-1C by night, right?

I'd say 3-4C by day, and -1 to -3C by night, under clear skies, 1C to 3C under cloudy skies at night.

Hmm no -1c through the day all you need is about -4c at night for an ice day and we will be getting about -5c every night this week if fog is there it won't even get above -4c.

There's also the fact that the dew points are a bit higher now which will slow the temperature drop during the night, unlike December where we had the dry continental air.

If it wasn't for the freezing conditions of December and last January the minima over the coming week would be considered very cold!

Yes i have definately noticed that , it is dropping about a half degree or so every hour if we had the lower humidity it would've been dropping about 2c every hour which means it would be quite low at night now its only -2.5c but if it were low humidity it would be far lower... and i'm surprised theres no fog tonight with the high humidity?

Edited January 18, 2011 by kimmirut

[The watcher]

They don't have metoffice stations but a similar idea... whatever if we get low mins we can get ice days and the models are always wrong anyway way temperatures and yes they do 2c for me all week. I think the gfs temperature swings are a little bit dramatic for the middle of january i mean 12c in the winter no way.

I had over 12c just a few days ago...I was hitting 12.8c here, not impossible, even 15c can be hit.

[Isolated Frost]

They don't have metoffice stations but a similar idea... whatever if we get low mins we can get ice days and the models are always wrong anyway way temperatures and yes they do 2c for me all week.

Hmm no -1c through the day all you need is about -4c at night for an ice day and we will be getting about -5c every night this week if fog is there it won't even get above -4c.

Your ignorance is dumbfounding.

First of all, no they are not, what a utterly ridiculous statement that I hope you retract.

Second, proof please, -4C at night would imply clear skies most likely, and it would rise to around 3C under them conditions, although wind etc. changes that, you will be getting -5C every night? No you won't, simple as that, you seem to think that -5C will give you an Ice Day, no, -1C could under cloud cover all day, -10C may not under Clear skies, there are rules to bend and change, and night-time minima doesn't change the scenario regarding day-time temperatures.

The part that I underlined, I simply don't understand.

Please can you change your attitude, behaviour and overall stance, it's seen to be going in an aggressive manner, and you are simply being ignorant, I'd welcome any changes to your posting style

[kimmirut]

I had over 12c just a few days ago...I was hitting 12.8c here, not impossible, even 15c can be hit.

I mean RISING that amount in a day not even 8 hours long.

[Isolated Frost]

They don't have metoffice stations but a similar idea... whatever if we get low mins we can get ice days and the models are always wrong anyway way temperatures and yes they do 2c for me all week. I think the gfs temperature swings are a little bit dramatic for the middle of january i mean 12c in the winter no way.

12C in 8 hours is not hard at all tbh, -12C to -2C in 5 hours in December, -3C to 9C in 8 hours in January, happened alot around the nation.

Edited January 18, 2011 by Isolated Frost

[kimmirut]

Your ignorance is dumbfounding.

First of all, no they are not, what a utterly ridiculous statement that I hope you retract.

Second, proof please, -4C at night would imply clear skies most likely, and it would rise to around 3C under them conditions, although wind etc. changes that, you will be getting -5C every night? No you won't, simple as that, you seem to think that -5C will give you an Ice Day, no, -1C could under cloud cover all day, -10C may not under Clear skies, there are rules to bend and change, and night-time minima doesn't change the scenario regarding day-time temperatures.

The part that I underlined, I simply don't understand.

Please can you change your attitude, behaviour and overall stance, it's seen to be going in an aggressive manner, and you are simply being ignorant, I'd welcome any changes to your posting style

Well thats what i have been using all winter to work out whether i am going to get an ice day or not usually it goes like this:

-2c or more= non ice day.

-4c or below= ice day.

What do you expect the temperature in the winter dosen't rise that much only by 2 or 3c so i'd expect an ice day with -4c or below i had an ice day not so long ago with -5c infact it was last friday which was just 5 days ago.

Kidding right? 15C can easily be reached at anytime of Winter, 12C was hit widespread throughout the last few weeks, 13/14C was aswell, the GFS has been spot on in the short-term and temperature progging.

Come on would you actually read my posts it says SWINGS which means rising and its pretty clear that its not going to rise by 12c in the winter. I'm not for bothering arguing with you its not worth it because you just say i'm wrong every time i know when or when not something isn't going to happen in my local area i should know by now what happens with certain conditions bye.

Edited January 18, 2011 by kimmirut

[Isolated Frost]

Well thats what i have been using all winter to work out whether i am going to get an ice day or not usually it goes like this:

-2c or more= non ice day.

-4c or below= ice day.

What do you expect the temperature in the winter dosen't rise that much only by 2 or 3c so i'd expect an ice day with -4c or below i had an ice day not so long ago with -5c infact it was last friday which was just 5 days ago.

Read next comment, 10C in 5 hours is easily possible, just because the changes aren't as high as mid-summer, does not indicate how much the temperature rises in Mid-Winter.

The average diurnal range is 6C for much of the nation in mid-Jan, I'd say 1-4C under constant cloud cover, 7-10C under clear skies.

Well thats what i have been using all winter to work out whether i am going to get an ice day or not usually it goes like this:

-2c or more= non ice day.

-4c or below= ice day.

What do you expect the temperature in the winter dosen't rise that much only by 2 or 3c so i'd expect an ice day with -4c or below i had an ice day not so long ago with -5c infact it was last friday which was just 5 days ago.

Come on would you actually read my posts it says SWINGS which means rising and its pretty clear that its not going to rise by 12c in the winter. I'm not for bothering arguing with you its not worth it because you just say i'm wrong every time i know when or when not something isn't going to happen in my local area i should know by now what happens with certain conditions bye.

I edited my comment.

[kimmirut]

Ok lets start talking about what the weather is doing right now instead of arguing with people about what happens in their local area its getting a bit tiring.

Current Conditons

Temperature: -2.5c.

Weather: Clear skies.

Wind Speed: 0mph.

Humidity: 85%

A sharp frost starting to form now everything turning white and sparkling under the moon gorgeous, alot of black ice though roads are bad.

12C in 8 hours is not hard at all tbh, -12C to -2C in 5 hours in December, -3C to 9C in 8 hours in January, happened alot around the nation.

It doesn't happen here well i'm further north and i'm in a frost hollow the most it'll rise here is about 8c, on a normal day its about 3 or 4c rise.

Edited January 18, 2011 by kimmirut

[Isolated Frost]

It doesn't happen here well i'm further north and i'm in a frost hollow the most it'll rise here is about 8c, on a normal day its about 3 or 4c rise.

I'm as north if not further north than you, and that doesn't mean anything, and the fact that you live in a supposed Frost hollow accelerates the rise usually, I've rose 10C numerous times this winter, as with many people, but I won't question 'your local climate'.