Tropical Cyclone Anthony

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 97P, located northeast of Cairns, has become Tropical Cyclone Anthony,with intensity at 40kts. Anthony is heading away from the coast, and should strengthen in hot waters and low shear, especially as the LLC is rapidly deepening. I'll have a full update tomorrow.

[Somerset Squall]

Anthony has intensified slightly this morning, with intensity rising to 45kts. Convection is quite deep over the LLC, but is not very expansive. However, banding features are becoming a little better defined, suggesting that the cyclone is at least slowly intensifying under generally favourable conditions. An equatorial ridge is current steering Anthony eastwards away from Queensland, and this motion should continue over the next couple of days. Beyond this, a developing ridge to the south will compete for steering influence and will cause Anthony to grind to a halt, and then should finally pull the cyclone back towards the west by day 4/5. Anthony is of no threat to land at present, but the westwards motion will need to be watched.

[Cookie]

this one needs to be kept an eye on,

[Somerset Squall]

Anthony has struggled over the last 12hrs in particular, with disruptive high shear blasting the cyclone. Intensity has fallen to 35kts. Anthony is still moving eastwards but should turn to the west in the next 12hrs. The unexpected shear has really taken it's toll on Anthony, an the cyclone could dissipate at any time. However, it may just about hold together as it approaches the east coast of Queensland, but Anthony is more likely to be a weak TC/Tropical low by the time the system makes a coastal crossing. Significant intensification is no longer expected.

[Cookie]

So I cursed this system dam

[Somerset Squall]

LOL Cookie!

Anthony is no longer a tropical cyclone and is downgraded by both BOM and JTWC to a remnant low. Ex-Anthony is stationary at present and is about to begin moving westwards as a ridge is buliding to the south. Shear has temporarily relaxed which has allowed a modest amount of convection to flare near the centre, but shear is high just west of the LLC, and therefore Anthony should not regenerate in the near term. However, if the low survives a few days of unfavourable conditions, the environment looks to be somewhat more favourable for redevelopment just east of Cairns (which, incidentally, is where Anthony formed!). However, with the strong shear, Ex-Anthony could well just dissipate with no regneration. We shall see!

[Somerset Squall]

Convection has steadily increased near the remnant low of Anthony, but the LLC isn't as defined as before. However, both JTWC and BOM are keen for Anthony to redevelop into a tropical cyclone as it approaches Queensland, aS the environment becomeS much more favourable in this area. Anthony may not look much at the moment, but it has the potential to cause more flooding misery for Queensland.

[Cookie]

uphill battle really

[Somerset Squall]

It is, but I feel Anthony will make it. Quite a remarkable little storm really. Convection has steadily been increasing and the LLC looks a little better defined. JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on Anthony's remnants, and BOM also indicate that Anthony will probably regain TC status in the next 12-24hrs. Models are also indicating Anthony will impact Queensland as a tropical cyclone.

[Somerset Squall]

BOM declared Athony a tropical cyclone again yesterday, though JTWC still assess Anthony as a remnant low. I must admit, though Anthony is much better organised than 48hrs ago, it is a minimal tropical cyclone at best. The convection isn't amazing and seems to come and go rather than persist. Still, overall, Anthony is making a slow comeback. Anthony has drifted north but is turning back towards the southwest, and a coastal impact near Townsville, Queensland at an intensity of 55kts is currently forecast by BOM. The exact landfall location may chop and change as we get nearer to the event however. This is especically true given Anthony's hugely erratic track so far!

[Cookie]

do I dare bring out that old phrase Drunken Cyclone it been a while :lol:

Bianca to the left, Anthony to the right, Stuck in the middle with you...

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

do I dare bring out that old phrase Drunken Cyclone it been a while :lol:

LOL- Vince was quite drunk too

[Somerset Squall]

BOM are still classifying Anthony as a TC wheras JTWC are still refering to the system as a remnant low. One thing is different since I last posted; convection is more concentrated near the LLC. Outflow is gradually improving, and the air profile is becoming more moist as the system moves towards the Queensland coast. For this reason, it seems the system will intensify at least modestly before landfall. I expect JTWC will re-classify Anthony sometime in the next 24hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC have upgraded Anthony back to a tropical cyclone, and the storm has strengthened somewhat overnight. Intensity has increased to 50kts this morning as Anthony approaches the Queensland coast near Bowen. Deep convection covers the LLC, and some impressive banding features are evident. If Anthony had a little more time over water, it could have become quite strong based on the impressive satellite trends of the last 12hrs. As it is, Anthony has very little time in which to strengthen further, and this is a good thing. Anthony is likely to bring some very heavy rain to Bowen and the surrounding areas, and the chance of some damaging winds too. This is likely to bring flooding in it's own right, and this is before Tropical Cyclone Yasi to the east makes landfall and makes the situation much worse.