Virtual Chase Thread 2011

[craig1uk]

Ok, my first stab a this, basing alot of my choice on GFS and not knowing the chase terrain whatsoever, I think I would kick around in Pine Bluff AR for a while and see what fires up, seems to be where the most insability is at @ 21z, and go from there

[Paul Sherman]

Just wanted to make people aware that we could be looking at another 2 Days of Severe Early Season Weather over the Weekend as another Powerful Trough Impacts first the Southern Plains and then the Mississippi River Valley. From people I know out in Oklahoma they are talking up the 2nd System as well.

Season really is cranking up a gear

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0312 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011

VALID 261200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ANOTHER STRONG

UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SWRN STATES ON SAT/D4...AND

MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON D5

AND D6. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH VARIOUS FORECAST

MODELS...SO PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO DENOTE ANY SEVERE AREAS.

HOWEVER...IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS...AN AREA

WILL EVENTUALLY BE ADDED...SOMEWHERE FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO

THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND PERHAPS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THIS

POWERFUL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE SUN INTO MON.

[craig1uk]

Awsome, busy wkend ahead then! BTW, don't suppose anyone knows where I can find forcast skew t 's to look at, for say 24hrs ahead?

[Paul Sherman]

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

Try the one above Craig - They cover 1900 Stations and do Forecast ahead

[craig1uk]

Cheers Paul, that'll do it !

Edited February 23, 2011 by craig1uk

[Paul Sherman]

Would be good if someone can put in here the NOAA Weather Radio Link - Probably need the Stations including Little Rock (AR) Tulsa (OK) Springfield (MO) Memphis (TN) etc etc

Also would be good to have the links to ChaserTv and SevereStudios for Virtual Chasing, moreso for Saturday/Sunday as more chasers will be Streaming over better Terrain and also it is the weekend so busier.

Regards

Paul S

[icbinb]

Would be good if someone can put in here the NOAA Weather Radio Link - Probably need the Stations including Little Rock (AR) Tulsa (OK) Springfield (MO) Memphis (TN) etc etc

Also would be good to have the links to ChaserTv and SevereStudios for Virtual Chasing, moreso for Saturday/Sunday as more chasers will be Streaming over better Terrain and also it is the weekend so busier.

Regards

Paul S

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/streamaudio.htm

Gonna be a few late nights coming up!

[craig1uk]

Severe studios live chase : http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

Tornado videos . net live chase map : http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen

Chaser tv : http://www.chasertv.com/

[nsrobins]

Happy New Year Netweather Stormchasers!

Could be a lively season this year (some analogues with moderate La Ninas) and things look set to get off the mark with two potentially severe episodes in the next three days.

Just a question about the 'virtual' chase. To be realistic I try to position myself in an area that considers all parameters - not just meterological, but geographical too. In an Arkansas event you really don't want to be anywhere West of Little Rock. I've been in that country - you can't see further than those guys with three eyes sitting on the logpile so you can bet your last soggy dollar you won't see that rain-wrapped beastie coming at you at 60mph. For that reason I'd be looking at a position just east of LRK, ready to scoot northeast.

It looks like Thursday's play is likely to be twilight into nightfall so purely for photogenic purposes maybe it might be better to set up much further west and grab some photos.

[Tom Lynch]

Would be good if someone can put in here the NOAA Weather Radio Link - Probably need the Stations including Little Rock (AR) Tulsa (OK) Springfield (MO) Memphis (TN) etc etc

Also would be good to have the links to ChaserTv and SevereStudios for Virtual Chasing, moreso for Saturday/Sunday as more chasers will be Streaming over better Terrain and also it is the weekend so busier.

Regards

Paul S

[/quote

You dont ask much do you?

Would you like a bit of debris too

[Mesoscale]

A couple of storms have fired up in central Illinois.

none of those weather radios are working for me, So i have compliled a list of ones that do work i couldn't find springfield, MO only in IL haha

Memphis, TN: http://audiostream.w...Memphis.mp3.m3u

Damascus, North Little Rock, AR: http://audiostream.w...amascus.mpg.m3u

Tulsa, OK: http://audiostream.w...m/Tulsa.mp3.m3u

Im listening to Damascus as im typing, its got alot of information i want a NOAA radio!!!

Edited February 24, 2011 by Mesoscale

[Mesoscale]

Storms now fireing north of Tulsa and south west of memphis heading north east.

[Paul Sherman]

Having had a look over the Models this morning I see no reason to change my Virtual Chase Target of Stuttgart (Ar) Should be firmly in the Warm Destabalised Sector with the Mornings QLCS further North West. Expecting things to pan out like Netweather's Chase in 2010 (1st May) when the Storms over Louisiana move NE At a Clip and become Tornadic over Central and Eastern Artkansas, Western Tennessee, Northern Mississippi and laterly maybe Kentucky.

Paul S

[user700]

Mesoscale Discussion 122

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0307 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH WRN AND N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240907Z - 241100Z

THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STRONG

WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY MORNING FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN

AND N-CNTRL OK. ANY WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT

WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MID-MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK THEN WWD

AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM WRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. UPPER

50S-LOW 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH

PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ADVECTING EWD

AND INTERCEPTING THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS SWRN OK AND NWRN TX RESULTING

IN RESERVOIR OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPE. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING

WITHIN TWO DISTINCT REGIMES. THE FIRST IS ACROSS WRN TX WHERE

MID-LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A NEWD EJECTING VORT MAX IS

INTERACTING WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...RESULTING IN

HIGH BASED STORMS NEAR LUBBOCK. THE OTHER IS OVER NRN OK INTO SRN KS

WHERE THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS IS

CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH TIME...THE

DEEPER ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MOISTER AND MORE

UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE

DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK. STEEP MID

LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR

FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

[Arron]

I've been looking all morning and am finding it hard to pick somewhere else other than Paul's location, I've already got last years chase from Pine Bluff running through my head again However, I'm going to opt for not chasing in AR and instead sit on the I40 in East OK, somewhere around Henryetta (or a bit further north) Ok Cape values, dew points, and sfc winds around 18Z lead me to just sit here and wait for the pretty storm to fire a few hours later and roll by, and then later on fume that I didn't sit it out east of Little Rock

Edited February 24, 2011 by Smokes

[NL]

Storms have started to initiate north central Texas and central Oklahoma with some pretty beefy storms on going in Kansas reporting 2" hail. I think I'll sit in Texarkana right in the NE corner of Texas bordering with Arkansas.

A severe thunderstorm watch from the SPC

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0012.html

[Gorky]

I'm heading to McAlester, OK to play in the 5% tor zone. The system is a little slower than last time I looked so this are should be in the firing line mid afternoon with plenty of sunshine. Cape values have shot up from yesterdays predictions of 500-750 to the region of 1250-1500 as per the 11z RUC. The Fort Smith forecast sounding is fairly interesting too showing winds starting to back by mid afternoon and great speed shear in place. Directional shear could be better but I suspect this area and areas west may get an upgrade to 10% to chances if this forecast verifies. I still think the better tornado chances will be towards dusk and in the region of the Western Tennessee and northern Mississippi borders.

[TornadoJo]

My gut says Tusla my brain says shut up "it'll be further East you muppet" Whats a girl to do?

[gpspete]

I think i'd start the day at Fort Smith half way between Oklahoma City and Little Rock looked at the map plenty of road options would hope to drive west towards Oklahoma to stay out of the trees to the south in the Quachita Forest and north the Ozark Forest mind there are plenty of trees east of Little Rock also looking at google earth looks a bit better further east so perhaps some option there a long drive to Memphis then north perhaps, also might even drive North and catch Jo in Tulsa and then drive north east to probable storms must keep a check on GRLevel3 and NWS to fine tune position hope fully i will be able to stay up late watching how it develops.

Edited February 24, 2011 by gpspete

[Paul Sherman]

Right Old ClusterF**K atm in Northern and North Eastern Oklahoma. Recent MD Issued for Southern and probably SE Oklahoma for another area of developing Storms (Mainly High Based Hailers) where ascent is aided by the Approaching Shortwave but both these areas "may" be getting turned over (Moisture wise in the next few hours) Attention should then turn to Western Arkansas and North East Texas / Eastern Oklahoma for the main show which by the time it moves with the Deepening Low and Lifting Warm Front hopefully will yield Supercells capable of getting the job done in daylight hours. But like Nathan I fear this is going to crank up at 00z (6pm US Time) when light fades and a 3-5 hour window of opportunity arises further east into Arkansas and Tennessee / Mississippi etc

Paul S

Co-Incidentally on the Northern Side of this Storm they are expecting 8-10" of Snow in Topeka and Kansas City

[gpspete]

just spotted a severe warned storm with mesos heading towards me waiting game now

hm no longer severe warned but wait an see a bit longer still get some mesos on it though acording to radar

Edited February 24, 2011 by gpspete

[IanM]

Live stream from north east of Texas - looks like he is making a dash for some action later - Texasstormchasers

[NL]

No significant changes on the SPC update, only to say that the moderate risk may be a touch to far north into Kentucky as current observations show the boundary layer is very cool, but not making any changes yet as the deepening surface low still threaten some embedded supercells well capable of producing tornadoes.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Mesoscale]

Theres a nice storm west of Dallas/Ft Worth, but im still holding on at Harrisburg, Arkansas.

GPSpete what Nexrad 3 server are you using with GrLevel3?? and ive noticed Grlevelxstuff and Stormlabstuff are down?

Edited February 24, 2011 by Mesoscale

[gpspete]

Theres a nice storm west of Dallas/Ft Worth, but im still holding on at Harrisburg, Arkansas.

GPSpete what Nexrad 3 server are you using with GrLevel3?? and ive noticed Grlevelxstuff and Stormlabstuff are down?

using the standard NWS server if http not working too well they have a ftp sever as well its on the latest GRLevel3 download,

just been summonsed to go out bye her who shall be obayed still might sneak a look later

just a quick look on live cams Andy Gabrielson look to be heading east from Fort Smith towards Little Rock good to see a successful chaser heading in the direction that i had on my list of possibles,

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=andy.gabrielson&uid=140