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Virtual Chase Thread 2011


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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Moderate risk today! Will be keeping an eye later on. Also Moderate risk out already for tomorrow :)

post-4649-0-38047300-1308508543_thumb.gi

post-4649-0-42610500-1308508559_thumb.gi 10% tornado risk

post-4649-0-60363300-1308508554_thumb.gi 45% hatched hail risk! :help:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1123 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER

PARTS OF NORTHEAST CO...SOUTHERN NEB....NORTHERN KS...SOUTHWEST

IA...AND NORTHWEST MO....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN

PLAINS INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CAROLINAS....

...SYNOPSIS...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN REGION

TO SRN ROCKIES BY TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM ANOTHER MCV HAS DEVELOPED

OVERNIGHT FROM MCS ACTIVITY AND CURRENTLY MOVING EWD OH VALLEY TO

REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT

WITH APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH. E/W WARM FRONT CENTRAL PLAINS

WILL SHIFT NWD TO VICINITY NEB/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE A

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXPECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK

BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DRY LINE WILL AGAIN BECOME ACTIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK

INTO W CENTRAL TX WHERE VERY HOT/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE ALONG

WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO FUEL PULSE STORM

DEVELOPMENT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MDT RISK WAS TO INCLUDE A LITTLE MORE OF

NERN CO AS VEERING WIND PROFILES ON THE N SIDE OF DEEPENING SURFACE

LOW ALONG WITH MLCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY

LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH

ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.

FURTHER E THE AIR MASS VICINITY E/W WARM FRONT BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE

WITH MLCAPES RANGING UPWARDS TO 3-4000 J/KG ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB.

CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW RAPID

DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ALONG

WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY

ALONG AND JUST N OF WARM FRONT WHERE BACKED SURFACE FLOW WILL

ENHANCE THE SHEAR.

DURING THE EVENING...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO A

FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS NEB. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD THEN SPREAD

EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF IA/MO WITH A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING

WINDS.

...LWR OH/TN VALLEYS INTO CAROLINAS...

IMPRESSIVE MCV DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS

IND. A BAND OF STRONG WESTERLIES DEVELOPED S OF MCV AND WILL PROVIDE

FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS

AFTERNOON FROM TN VALLEY EWD TO MID ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT. AIR

MASS CURRENTLY RECOVERING FROM W TO E ACROSS TN VALLEY IN THE WAKE

OF MORNING MCS AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE

WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY AND SRN

APPALACHIANS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BY MID AFTERNOON AND FORM INTO

LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS GIVEN THE 40-50KT OF WLY SHEAR ACROSS TN VALLEY.

WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP

UPSCALE AS THEY SPREAD EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY TO CAROLINAS.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON FURTHER S INTO

NRN GA WHERE AIR MASS BECOMES MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER

SHEAR THAN FURTHER N.

...OK/TX...

THE SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN OK INTO WEST

TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL

LAPSE RATES ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON

MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WILL

PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STORMS THAT FORM

WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITHIN A FEW COUNTIES OF INITIATION DUE TO

INCREASING INHIBITION FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER WITH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC

LAPSE RATES TO 500MB...MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG AS WELL AS DCAPE TO

ALMOST 2000 J/KG...STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING

WINDS AND HAIL.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 06/19/2011

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Yep, might stay up and see what unfolds later! Think I'll hang out at the Love's Gas Station in Aurora just off the I-80, Nebraska today see what comes its way.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Moderate risk again today, moved to include the I35 north of OKC now! I'm going to sit myself on the I35 near Perry and play the dryline :)

post-4649-0-90819400-1308588232_thumb.gi

post-4649-0-55409800-1308588237_thumb.gi

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1103 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER

PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEB...WESTERN IA...SOUTHEAST SD...EAST KS...

NORTHWEST MO SWD THROUGH CENTRAL OK......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN

PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE OH VALLEY...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE

CAROLINAS...

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING FROM CURRENT POSITION SE CO

NEWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO SRN NEB BY 12Z TUE. 60-70KT 500MB JET MAX

WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG ASCENT/DIVERGENCE SPREADING NEWD FROM CENTRAL

HIGH PLAINS ACROSS KS INTO NEB THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER

W-CENTRAL KS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD INTO SRN NEB. THE DRY LINE

EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SWD THRU FAR WRN OK/SWRN TX WILL SHIFT EWD BY

MID AFTERNOON TO EXTEND ON A N/S AXIS VICINITY THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

VERY STRONG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF DRY LINE WILL WRAP NWWD THE MOIST AND

UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO N OF SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL NEB.

THE STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH THE POST FRONTAL MOIST

NLY FLOW WRN KS THIS AM HAS GENERATED ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

BY MID AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT AN

OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH ALONG THE DRY LINE AND IN THE

VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT REGION TO THE N/NE OF

THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NEB.

THE STRONGLY SHEARED PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NEB

COUPLED WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AOA 2000 J/KG EXPECTED TO SUPPORT

TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE

POTENTIAL OF STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE IN

PLACE.

DOWN THE DRY LINE SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP AS THE CAP

BREAKS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME MLCAPES WILL HAVE CLIMBED

TO AOA 2500 J/KG SWD TO THE OK/TX BORDER WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE

PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL JET MAX AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL

RESULT IN A VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL ALONG WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST

WINDS. IT NOW APPEARS COVERAGE OF BOTH THE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE

SUFFICIENT TO UPGRADE THE RISK TO MDT AS FAR S AS THE OKC AREA .

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES GIVEN THE 50-60 KT OF

SHEAR. FURTHER S INTO NCENTRAL TX THE EXPECTED COVERAGE WILL BE

LESS BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

DOWNBURSTS.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=phillip.lueking&uid=574

Tornado on the ground!

post-4649-0-51439000-1308606635_thumb.jp

There was stunning tornado on Andy Gabrielsons stream just then http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=andy.gabrielson&uid=140

post-4649-0-78799400-1308606939_thumb.jp

Tis a big cone now on Andy's stream :D

Not sure why it keeps editing my post rather posting a new post :wallbash:

post-4649-0-02781600-1308607464_thumb.jp

Amazing footage at the mo :o

Edited by Smokes
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Tornadoes were pretty prolific in Nebraska and NW Kansas yesterday: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

Some footage: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13853550

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Good collection of yesterdays tornadoes in this youtube vid :) Wish I was there!

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  • 4 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Some amazing footage of a couple of tornadoes from yesterday in north dakota :o

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Insane storm out there at the moment in ND. Amazing structure. Stacked plates 70,000 feet high. Recently had a large rain wrapped wedge with it. Theres some good streams of it on Severe Studios and TornadoVideos.net

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

MODERATE RISK Today across the Dakotas and the possibilities of one or two Strong Tornadoes. 10% Hatched Area

post-24-0-21880900-1311667909_thumb.gif

Might be an idea to keep an eye on some of the Streams tonight!

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  • 3 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Looks like this thread is going to be active for the next week or two. The fall season is about to burst into life a little late but possibly with a bang as the 6z GFS looks rediculous for next week, especially Monday which shows the hallmarks of a decent outbreak around the Red River in WTX/OK if the current forecast verifies (although at this range out it surely won't!). There's also indications of troughing persisting right throughout the forecast period so it would be unlikely to be the only event in the next few weeks. Definitely something I'll be keeping an eye on. One thing is it will be huge for those suffering from the drought in the area as moisture return over the affected area is going be very robust and it will bring a lot of rain regardless of sever mode...

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Well my doubts about the GFS possibly being accurate that far out seem unfounded. Still looks good for an outbreak this afternoon with only a couple of caveats. NAM is showing 2500+ Cape juxtaposed with strong low level shear and great DPs for this time of year. Only worry would be cloud cover and perhaps too much convection resulting in large MCS or squall line. With the great looking curved hodographs, I'm guessing we'll get at least a few hours of supercellular activity.

As for a target, I'd originally been looking at a Texas target by the Red River (Somewhere between Childress and Wichita Falls) as I though best chance for something discrete would be down here with maybe too much convection into OK. However, the NAM is painting a picture of multiple discrete cells forming early afternoon into W OK and that seems almost too good to bypass if it plays out. Will probably choose Altus as a start location as a balance between the two.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Just came in here as I noticed SPC went slight risk :D I'll be tuned in this evening hoping to see some streams :D PITA that I'm away from tomorrow for a week so I need a fix tonight!

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

MD issued for tornado watch likely :D

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2288.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1227 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX/SERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071827Z - 072000Z

PORTIONS OF NWRN TX/SERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK ARE BEING

MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND INCREASING SVR WEATHER

THREAT. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING EARLY TO MID

AFTERNOON.

MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER W

TX...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO

FAR SERN KS. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT

N-NW INTO THE REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW

TO MID 60S. IN ADDITION...PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE WARM SECTOR IS

ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. THOUGH

PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL W OF THE SRN PLAINS...VIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD/CLOUD STREETS

WITH EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS ARE DEEPENING OVER NWRN TX. THIS AREA

OF IMPLIED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS JUXTAPOSED WITH

MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J PER KG/ AND AMPLE

DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM

DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING

SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MESOSCALE AND

BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AS WELL AS 50+ KT SWLY FLOW

SPREADING ACROSS THE LINE OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING...WHICH MAY FAVOR A

DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE DURING THE INITIAL STAGES OF THIS

CONVECTIVE EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...AND

STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH

ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR EXCEEDING 200 M2 S-2 DURING THE AFTERNOON

HOURS AS SLY LLJ INCREASES TO 40 KT/...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE

POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Lots of tornado reports so far... Some good footage from the usual suspects. Andy Gabrielson got a nice intercept before his stream went down due to 'car troubles' which apparently are that he flipped his chase vehicle! He apparently got into another car and just continued chasing The Dominator got an intercept near Tipton and there is now a 3/4 mile wedge which has just passed Snyder and is luckily in an unpopulated wildlife refuge at the moment. You wouldn't think it's November

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

It was a good night watching the streams, although most were down around Snyder when it looked it's most impressive. My target of Altus was pretty close to the mark so happy with that Only about 20 miles from the first touchdown of the day. Could easily have seen all the tornadoes last night from that starting location. Highlight was Andy Gabrielson's stream going down due to 'car trouble' and then it being reported on the news that his car trouble was that he'd rolled it over in a ditch after sliding off a mud road while driving backwards. He got into another car and continued to chase - possibly one of the TVN vehicles as they captured his roll on their cameras from the next road along. Contrary to the way the clip is edited on the TV, the tornado had passed and it looks like he was just reversing too fast down the road to rejoin the main highway for another intercept. He was pretty close to the tornado but it wasn't the winds that sent him over, jsut some bad driving :p Luckily, the car looks remarkably undamaged for a rollover!

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