Virtual Chase Thread 2011

[dogs32]

1100 3 SSE MILLERSPORT FAIRFIELD OH 3986 8252 POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE REPORTED BY SPOTTER SOUTH OF MILLERSPORT / NORTH OF PLEASANTVILLE. TREES DOWNED AND MULTIPLE BUILDINGS AND SILOS DAMAGED. (ILN)

no 6

edit

No9

1835 ESTILL SPRINGS FRANKLIN TN 3526 8613 EXTENSIVE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO RESIDENCES AND MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS AREAS NEAR PLEASANT GROVE RD ... TURKEY CREED RD ... AWALT RD ... AND HWY 41A. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (HUN)

1835 5 S TULLAHOMA FRANKLIN TN 3530 8623 *** 1 FATAL *** ONE FATALITY REPORTED BY EMA AND RELAYED BY MEDIA. ADDITIONAL DETAILS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. (HUN)

1846 5 E LYNCHBURG MOORE TN 3530 8627 STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOME NEAR PLEASANT GROVE RD. (HUN)

no 10

2155 STATESVILLE IREDELL NC 3579 8089 TORNADO REPORTED SOUTH OF I-40 EXIT 148 NO DAMAGE AS YET (GSP)

http://stormscapelive.com/michael-phelps

Edited February 28, 2011 by dogs32

[dogs32]

so far 12 out of this outbreak

0030 2 S PROSPERITY NEWBERRY SC 3418 8153 CORRECTED LOCATION AND TIME. REPORT OF POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. SHERIFF DEPT EN ROUTE TO CHECK IT OUT. (CAE)

0042 1 E LITTLE MOUNTAIN NEWBERRY SC 3419 8140 REPORT OF POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. SHERIFF DEPT EN ROUTE TO CHECK IT OUT. (CAE)

[Cookie]

footage from the weekend

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNWLuolr2TQ&feature=player_embedded

[Paul Sherman]

Possibly more Chase Opportunities coming up for Friday 4th March across portions of the Plains, Models are differing in Locations and quality of Moisture etc and would suggest High Based Storms at the moment but another one to keep an eye on. After this there might be another Risk for the 8th March if the Cold Front does not scour out the GOM

So Target Locations Ladies and Gentlemen if this comes to fruition

Paul S

[Cookie]

Possibly more Chase Opportunities coming up for Friday 4th March across portions of the Plains, Models are differing in Locations and quality of Moisture etc and would suggest High Based Storms at the moment but another one to keep an eye on. After this there might be another Risk for the 8th March if the Cold Front does not scour out the GOM

So Target Locations Ladies and Gentlemen if this comes to fruition

Paul S

where every you're going,

[Tom Lynch]

Possibly more Chase Opportunities coming up for Friday 4th March across portions of the Plains, Models are differing in Locations and quality of Moisture etc and would suggest High Based Storms at the moment but another one to keep an eye on. After this there might be another Risk for the 8th March if the Cold Front does not scour out the GOM

So Target Locations Ladies and Gentlemen if this comes to fruition

Paul S

Yates's wine lodge Cardiff

[craig1uk]

After my bust the other day sitting in Pine Bluff AR ,I think I'll position myself in SE OK, maybe Eagletown on fri and give myself options, Gfs has the bulk of the cape in LA, although there is no mention of this on the spc outlook, ( I'm new at this, I don't know why ), so I'll start there and see what transpires

[Paul Sherman]

After my bust the other day sitting in Pine Bluff AR ,I think I'll position myself in SE OK, maybe Eagletown on fri and give myself options, Gfs has the bulk of the cape in LA, although there is no mention of this on the spc outlook, ( I'm new at this, I don't know why ), so I'll start there and see what transpires

Chainsaw has been ordered from Ebay Craig and should be with you by Thursday! Might have problems getting it through customs though :lol:

[craig1uk]

Bugger

How about a BIG periscope ?

[TornadoJo]

well ill be positioning myself in florida on friday n ill go from there. As long as I make the wedding on tuesday I don't think anyone will mind what I do. . . . oh no wait, thats right, I didn't get a hire car so I wouldn't be tempted. . . silly sensible me!

[gpspete]

didn't quite know where to put this link for those interested in tornados

"the online tornado faq" from the spc.

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/

sorry if this link has been posted on here somewhere but.....

[Tom Lynch]

Heck it keeps on shifting

I guess I might at this moment in time head for my old stomping ground, Pine Bluff and take whatver comes. Even if it is pickled pigs paws, hog jowls and grits. A hurried guess.

Tom

[Paul Sherman]

Todays Risk is pretty much a Uk Thunderstorm Set-Up by the looks of things, so not even going to post a Target Area.

Now what has got my attention is Next Tuesday 8th March, the overnight Model runs have increased this as an active Day and across much more favourable areas. From Central Kansas all the Way to the DFW / Waco Area.

So I am expecting a Highlighted Day 5 area on the 4-8 Day Outlook today from the SPC In a bubble from Eastern Kansas down through Eastern Oklahoma and then across DFW Up through Wichita Falls and West of Wichita (Kansas)Low Pressure Play further North with a trailing Dryline down through Central Oklahoma and into Central North Texas.

Lets hope the Models dont Kapput this one like todays Risk area

Paul S

[Gorky]

Been away most of the week so wasn't aware that this was at one point hyped as a good day Not exactly a thrilling setup now but if I was to pick anywhere to chase, it would be around McAlester to Ft Smith as storm should fire south and west of hear and travel in this direction. Further north on the warm front up into MO will probably be too grungy despite slightly better shear and I think the only chance of any sort of structure will be early on and to the south west of the highlighted area and my starting location, perhaps a briefly isolated supe somewhere on a line from Ardmore to Ft Smith. Probably not going to follow this closely as it is Friday but it's still good to look at these setups as not every day is going to be a tornado outbreak come May, and sometimes, the 2% days can be the most profitable (25th May - Walsh Co and Tribune Tor's, and the Campo day for example.)

Edited March 4, 2011 by Gorky

[NL]

Tornado watch/warnings now in place for southern parts of Louisiana,Mississippi and Alabama.

I dont think Ive seen any chasers down this part of the US,but I'd imagine that the terrain wont be ideal for stormchasing with many rivers and swamps to deal with.. At least you can sit on the beach and watch the storms roll by..!!

[Dorsetbred]

PAul

Have you packed semi rigid inflatable boats for this years hunt?

Seems like swampland is calling :o

[NL]

Preliminary reports 6 tornadoes yesterday all in Louisiana. Although the tornadoes are being reported as weak affairs (EF0) but they have caused injuries to around 15 people in total and 1 fatal (21yr old female) in Rayne Acadia Louisiana as a tree fell onto her house. Over 100 homes have been damaged in an area of around a ¼ of a mile wide and 3 miles long with some of them moved off their foundations.

Next severe weather event (Slight) for Tuesday has been pushed slightly further SE into the Ozarks with Eastern Oklahoma and NE Texas in the firing line too.

http://www.spc.noaa....k/day3otlk.html

Edit.. Just read that the weather channel rated the tornado in Rayne as an EF2 and the path is estimated to be around 5 miles not 3..

Tornado damage in Rayne, La. Courtesy: Lisa Soileaux, The Rayne Acadian-Tribunel

Edited March 6, 2011 by NL

[Paul Sherman]

Fairly Decent Set-Up today with a 10% Hatched Tornado Risk across Louisiana and 5% across Arkansas, Parts of Texas and Oklahoma. Dryline with Warm Front Set-Up and Cold Front further North West which will catch upto the Action areas later turning it into a QLCS Which will push South Eastwards towards the Gulf Coast Later. Very Thin Tongue of Moisture further North West advecting High 50's Dp's into NE Texas and SE Oklahoma with a much better Warm Sector Further South and East, thus the better Hodographs are in Louisiana and that is why the SPC Has this area under the 10% Hatched.

So any takers for a Chase Target today, bear in mind timing of Storms, Chase Terrain and exactly what you would want to get out of Today, Eg Dangerous Night-Time Possible Strong Tornadoes or a Much better Photogenic Dryline Storm from Mid Afternoon to Sun Down.

For this reason alone I would be in the 5% Tornado Box between Sherman and Paris (Texas)

Paul S

[dogs32]

the trend is higher than 2010 so far..

though early days....

[Arron]

Bloody trees everywhere....... I've decided to sit it out a bit lower down than Paul. I'll be mostly waiting in...... Greenville TX :ph34r:

[Arron]

Latest RUC going for 3000j/kg CAPE values on the dryline later from Sherman south :o

[Arron]

MD been issued, it's going to go to Moderate risk for most of LA and Southern MS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0952 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LA AND SRN MS

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 081552Z - 081645Z

MUCH OF LA INTO SRN MS IS BEING UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN THE

UPCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON

THROUGH TONIGHT FOR A FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-LIVED TORNADOES

ACROSS THIS REGION. FURTHER DETAILS WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE

MORNING UPDATE OF THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

..PETERS.. 03/08/2011

[NL]

Storm Prediction Centre have upgraded the severe risk to moderate for most of Louisiana into Mississippi for a few strong and possibly long-lived tornadoes.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2011 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF LA AND SRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TX/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS PLAINS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONE S/WV NOW ROTATING NEWD THRU KS/NRN OK WHILE UPSTREAM VORT MAX CENTRAL NM MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY 12Z WED. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE STREAMING NWD FROM WRN GULF INTO SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY THRU THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS INLAND ACROSS SERN TX EWD INTO SRN MS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING ATOP THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEWPOINTS RISE THRU THE 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY. ..LA/MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THE FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAIN A QUESTION ATTM HOWEVER A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN A RATHER STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2. WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING BOTH DUE TO CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF THE NM IMPULSE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX... DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING INLAND ACROSS LA AND SRN MS. GIVEN THAT MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT NOW IN PLACE WILL JUST IMPROVE THRU THE AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING INCLUDING TORNADOES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT ACROSS LA INTO SRN MS. THERE IS THE RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES. UPSCALE ORGANIZATION INTO BOWS/LEWPS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EWD INTO WRN AL. PORTION OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MDT RISK DUE TO THE GREATER CONFIDENCE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOS. ...OK/TX/AR/LA... BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL OK AND CENTRAL TX. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT SUFFICIENT RISK IS PRESENT TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. THOSE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER LATER TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF AR/LA THIS EVENING WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.

[Arron]

Is Stormtrack down for anyone else?

[NL]

Is Stormtrack down for anyone else?

Tis' down for me too