March CET

[Paul T]

Can i please upfate mine to 6.0oc please, cant edit original on iphone. Soz. Paul

[Nigerian Prince]

March CET, well its all guess work, so why not bang on 5.0.(Gender male, Battersea ,London)

[AderynCoch]

6.7C

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

5.5C

[reef]

A slightly milder than average 6.9C

[Terminal Moraine]

5.6c A lot of dry, chilly cloudy weather I think.

[Jack Wales]

A tricky one this month as there are signals for warm and cold synoptics. A lot depends on the eventual positioning of the HP cell currently building around the UK, if this slips north as per the GFS 00z there is potential for a week or so to tap into the cold pool flowing south through central Europe. My reluctance to build this into my forecast is the lack of ensemble support, especially as FI has been throwing up these charts for weeks now. Also with the anomolously cold stratosphere and the PV anchored over greenland I'm going for a slightly milder than average 6.8°C.

Edited February 28, 2011 by Jack Wales

[Evening thunder]

In case I forget this evening, 7.0C

[Weather-history]

Surprisingly on face value, there have been only 8 Marches warmer than the warmest February on record for the CET ie with a CET over 7.9C

5 of those occurred since WWII. Pre 1938, February 1779 was within 0.3C of the warmest March on record at the time, 1750 with 8.2C

When you consider that the difference between February and March on average is about 2.0C, you would think there would be more warmer Marches than 7.9C

So it suggests how exceptional that February 1779 record is.

[Climate Man]

Colder than February!

[DR Hosking]

I will go for 6.6c

[geoffw]

6.8

[BornFromTheVoid]

Going by the 06z GFS, looks like we'll be at about 3.6C to the 7th, so a cool start to the month

[reef]

Surprisingly on face value, there have been only 8 Marches warmer than the warmest February on record for the CET ie with a CET over 7.9C

5 of those occurred since WWII. Pre 1938, February 1779 was within 0.3C of the warmest March on record at the time, 1750 with 8.2C

When you consider that the difference between February and March on average is about 2.0C, you would think there would be more warmer Marches than 7.9C

So it suggests how exceptional that February 1779 record is.

I suspect its a bit of an anomoly, in a way like May 1833 - though you could say the same for March 1938 and 1957 aswell.

In all honesty looking at the records it seems quite strange that 8+C Marches are so unusual when 6C is quite easily attainable in the winter months. I suspect its because for milder March weather its still the tropical maritime setups which provide the best opportunity (especially for high minima) and sea temps are cooler then. It's balanced out towards the end of the month as warmth from solar heating becomes more possible, but such setups are usually colder by night.

Theres also the fact that historically, the current 30-year mean for March is very high. The run from 1989-2003 of well above average ones was rather out of kilter with past trends. A 7.6C March (1C above the new 1981-2010 average) would be 18th mildest in the CET series.

[Lettucing Gutted]

10C

[Polar Continental]

6.1c please.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

6.3C

[summer blizzard]

5.0C: Nigerian Prince

5.5C: North Norfolk Weather

5.6C: Terminal Moriane

6.1C: Polar Continental

6.3C: Atlantic Flamethrower

6.6C: Dr Hosking

6.7C: Aderyn Coch

6.8C: Jack Wales

6.8C: Geoffw

6.9C: Reef

7.0C: Stormmad 26

10.0C: Craig Evans

[Midlands Ice Age]

5.0C: Nigerian Prince

5.5C: North Norfolk Weather

5.6C: Terminal Moriane

6.1C: Polar Continental

6.3C: Atlantic Flamethrower

6.6C: Dr Hosking

6.7C: Aderyn Coch

6.8C: Jack Wales

6.8C: Geoffw

6.9C: Reef

7.0C: Stormmad 26

10.0C: Craig Evans

SB,

This note ignores nost of the guesses on page2 after your collection up until the start of page 4.

Is there a reason for this? or have I missed them.

Its just that I don't want my guess( so accurate assessment) to go missing together with about 15 others!

MIA

[J10]

6.8

[Don]

6.9C

Another unexciting month for snow lovers

[summer blizzard]

SB,

This note ignores nost of the guesses on page2 after your collection up until the start of page 4.

Is there a reason for this? or have I missed them.

Its just that I don't want my guess( so accurate assessment) to go missing together with about 15 others!

MIA

Not to worry, i will compile them into one list at about 23:30. It was just easier to complie the predictions so far and also to bump the thread to get last minute predictions from people.

[davehsug]

7.2C please.

[damianslaw]

Looking a cold start to March with maxes suppressed in the CET zone for the first few days and some quite chilly nights - indeed many will struggle to see 8 degree maxes for most of the week - it may creep up to 10 degrees in London later in the week.

[summer blizzard]

4.9C: Virtual Sphere

5.0C: Nigerian Prince

5.2C: Stew Fox

5.3C: Summer Of 95

5.4C: Barry

5.4C: Sundog

5.5C: Snow Rob

5.5C: North Norfolk Weather

5.6C: Shuggee

5.6C: Termainal Moraine

5.7C: Midlands Ice Age

5.7C: Coram

5.7C: Isolated Frost

5.8C: Pete Tattum

5.9C: Lomond Snowstorm

5.9C: Stationary Front

5.9C: Ben_Cambs

5.9C: David Snow

6.0C: Jonothan F

6.0C: Damians Law

6.0C: Paul T

6.1C: Polar Continental

6.2C: Snowstorm 1

6.2C: Norrance

6.3C: Steve B

6.3C: Arb

6.3C: Atlantic Flamethrower

6.4C: Thundery Wintry Showers

6.5C: Stormy King

6.5C: Mark Bayley

6.6C: Foz Foster

6.6C: Dr Hosking

6.7C: Milhouse

6.7C: Adzyy

6.7C: Aderyn Coch

6.8C: Koppite

6.8C: Jack Wales

6.8C: Geoffw

6.8C: Jackone

6.9C: Reef

6.9C: Don

7.0C: Roger J Smith

7.0C: Optimus Prime

7.0C: Storm Mad 26

7.1C: Frozen Canals

7.2C: Rollo

7.2C: Dave H Sug

7.3C: Mr Data

7.3C: I am Johny Disco

7.5C: Born From The Void

7.5C: The Pit

7.6C: Backtrack

8.1C: Summer Blizzard

8.1C: Nathan B

8.2C: Tony H

9.1C: A Winters Tale

10.0C: Craig Evans