March CET

[damianslaw]

The longer it remains cold the more difficult it becomes to record anything around average or above. However recent years have had some big switcharounds in the second half of March, giving average or above final CETs from much lower points mid-month. A couple of recent examples:

1st - 15th March 2005: 3.9C - final CET 7.2C.

1st - 15th March 2010: 3.6C - final CET 6.1C.

And not forgetting the huge nudge upwards in the final week of March 2006:

1st - 23rd March 2006: 2.8C - final CET 4.9C.

Thanks for putting these stats up. I was going to ask how we were doing this year compared to last march which I remember starting off on a cold note. I think we will struggle to see a lower CET mid month compared to 2005, 2010 and 2006, though we may not be too far off the 2005 figure. The next few days do look like being below average helped largely by suppressed minima as opposed to maxima which in the CET zone will be slightly above average after a fair few below average days. Certainly tonight is going to be a notably cold one for the CET so a 0.2-0.3 drop in the CET likely tomorrow.

Those stats for 2006 are quite startling we were on course to record one of our coldest March on record, but a major switcharound occured late in the month with tropical maritime/continental air dominating.

[summer blizzard]

The last week of March 2006 was truly appaling as it was exceptionally wet, i believe there was widespread flooding. The same occured in May 2006 although drought orders were issued in the south east.

How do the reservoirs across the country look?

[Weather-history]

Those stats for 2006 are quite startling we were on course to record one of our coldest March on record, but a major switcharound occured late in the month with tropical maritime/continental air dominating.

March 1886

By 16th: 0.3C

By 31st: 4.2C

[Eugene]

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Cold start to March, actually very cold i think some forget even though the sun is strong the airflow has been cold, no canceled cold spell at all just nothing can change the power of the sun this time of year.

[BornFromTheVoid]

3.3C to the 8th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 3.1C. Minimum for today is 0.9C, and maxima are around 9C to we should be at 3.5C by tomorrows update.

Going by the 06z GFS it looks like we'll be at

4.0C to the 11th

4.5C to the 13th

4.4C to the 15th

4.5C to the 16th.

Will need to second half of the month to average 10.7C to reach my guess of 7.5C if the CET turns out like the GFS shows.

[Milhouse]

Just checked and at this stage last March we were 2.7c so 0.6c less than this month. By mid month we should be about a degree warmer than last year.

[TonyH]

I can see it limping up to average from here on, probably won't end up very far above though like I need it too!

[reef]

Hadley is on 3.5C to the 9th, yesterday was 5.4C.

Last night was mild with a value of 5.8C, so a large rise tomorrow.

[Milhouse]

Hadley is on 3.5C to the 9th, yesterday was 5.4C.

Last night was mild with a value of 5.8C, so a large rise tomorrow.

Yes, a big jump up to 4.0 to the 10th.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Going by the 12z GFS, it looks like we'll be at

4.6C to the 12th

4.9C to the 14th

5.6C to the 16th

5.8C to the 18th

[damianslaw]

CET likely to rise over the coming days but not spectacularly so and as a result I doubt we will be at 6 degrees by this time next weekend - at this stage I do think we will see a near average CET and with hints of northern blocking later in the month if I had to bet I would say a finishing mark below the 61-90 average with some preety cold nights under clear skies at times later in the month with the north plagued by more wintry conditions.

[reef]

Hadley is on 4.2C to the 11th. Yesterday came in at 6.1C.

Today will probably come in around 9C, so the value will edge upwards to 4.6C on tomorrow's update.

[summer blizzard]

I would say now that my 8.1C is unlikely to come to fruition. However, with the strength of the sun increasing and any high pressure now having upper air temperatures above 0C in its centre now, i would say that an above average finish still looks likely and a finish in the high 6C's probable.

[BornFromTheVoid]

4.8C to the 13th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 7.3C. Minimum for today is -1.5C, maximum was around 11.5C so will probably remain at 4.8C tomorrow.

After that, going by the 12z GFS we should be at

5.1C to the 15th

5.3C to the 17th

5.3C to the 19th

5.2C to the 21st

[Weather-history]

A pretty reasonable chance that the first half of March will turn out colder than the first half of February

A cert and by a comfortable margin as well.

[damianslaw]

A cert and by a comfortable margin as well.

Suspect the contrast in CET values will be even more marked in Scotland which has endured a notably cold start to the month.

[summer blizzard]

CET is still at 4.8C to the 14th, so a comfortably below average first half to March.

In reagrds to the CET finishing value, i still see a value between 6.5C and 7.0C as maxima looks like it could be fairly high next week even with low minima.

[Norrance]

Suspect the contrast in CET values will be even more marked in Scotland which has endured a notably cold start to the month.

Possibly, but Scotland wasn't as far above average as further South in Feb though.

Edited March 16, 2011 by Norrance

[summer blizzard]

CET is now 5.0C to the 15th.

Likely to see a rise tommorow before stagnation and then a drop over the weekend. Next week will see decent maxima though and is now forecast to see high pressure all the way through. With this in mind, i think that we are about to see just how much of an effect the March sun can have.

Still say between 6.5C and 7.0C will be the finish.

Mr Data, what are the top twenty driest Marches on record? With the exception of Friday there is a chance we may see no rainfall for the rest of the month.

Edited March 16, 2011 by summer blizzard

[SteveB]

5.1c to the 16th, -0.1c

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[TonyH]

A fairly mild month would seem assured from now on.

[The watcher]

It all depends on how this HP turns out I suppose. 6.1c (I think is my punt) could be a degree too low.

[damianslaw]

A fairly mild month would seem assured from now on.

Not too sure - dry settled conditions in days to come provided there isn't much cloud will bring some notably cold nights offsetting the milder days and there is still a good chance of a colder aiflow developing from the north before the end of the month - a good bet would be a near average CET value with equal odds of it being above or below the average. Can't see a particularly colder month than average now nor a particularly milder than average month.

[BornFromTheVoid]

5.3C to the 18th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 7.6C. Minimum for today is -0.9C and maxima look like being just over 11C so will probably remain at 5.3C tomorrow.

Going by the 06z GFS, we'll be at

5.3C to the 20th

5.7C to the 22nd

6.0C to the 24th

6.1C to the 26th

[summer blizzard]

CET is now 5.3C to the 19th and i must admit that the likely range now looks slightly below average (6.6C).

On the rainfall front, we have seen just 13.5mm so far this month (monthly average is 66mm). Given the outlook, it is highly likely that we see the driest month since April 2007.

As a side note, i was shocked when i saw just how dry December 2010 was nationally because i had assumed it was fairly wet in the south.

http://www.climate-uk.com/

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/ranked_monthly/HadEWP_ranked_mly.txt