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Atlantic Invest Thread 2011


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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

It seems to be concentrating around 15 56, with good outflow and certainly upper circulation. I've been wrong a few times but I think this is it now.

This one is really taking it's time to get going, been hanging around between 90 and 100% for almost 3 days.

Anyone guess the timing for a TD?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Blimey about time to, but recon have found the closed circulation and flight winds of 40-50kts enough just to get us Emily in the next update I think.

I think it might be too late for the 10pm update, but we will soon see.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Blimey about time to, but recon have found the closed circulation and flight winds of 40-50kts enough just to get us Emily in the next update I think.

I think it might be too late for the 10pm update, but we will soon see.

Indeed it was too late for the 10pm update.

What is the track forecast??

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Definite strengthening. Pity anybody on the Leeward Islands right now.

Is this still expected to head for Florida, i really can't see such a sharp turn.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

We've got the first of out potentials dropping off the African coast in a couple of days time, some models develop an atlantic low pressure pretty quickly so definitely one to watch next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

92L

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EAST ATLC ANALYZED FROM

17N19W TO 11N21W...MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY

REVEALED A SHARP LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHERN

EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF

DEEP MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. ISOLATED

MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON

EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

We've got the first of out potentials dropping off the African coast in a couple of days time, some models develop an atlantic low pressure pretty quickly so definitely one to watch next week.

This has now been given 92L with some development quite possible but slowly.

ALL paths and models make this a total fish if anything does develop, will no recon for at least 4 days again if anything does develop it will likely be pretty sat watching.

Behind 92L GFS develops quite a potent hurricane(see below), due to it being further south it doesn't recurve as much and might effect land if it develops how atm its the mass of convection leaving Africa that could become invest 93L pretty soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

The invests seem to be queueing up atm, here's 92 and 93 together (92 to the left, 93 to the right).

Both seem very unorganised still, however considering that they are still in the east atlantic they are actually pretty well progressed.

Tracks for the two potential storms look the same as yesterday, 92L a little less fishy, but still re-curving out in the atlantic before the caribbean and 93L staying further south due to the ridge thrown up behind 92L and so more of a threat to land.

Both have every reason to develop particularly 93L.

GFS 00Z again puts a major hurricane approaching the eastern islands 5-6 days out.

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post-6326-0-70204700-1313045276_thumb.pn

post-6326-0-31974800-1313045295_thumb.pn

post-6326-0-23824900-1313045307_thumb.pn

post-6326-0-74314700-1313045299_thumb.pn

post-6326-0-83827300-1313045369_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: in Croatia
  • Location: in Croatia

As seen on the following image,cloud mass east of Carolinas is at 20 %,cloud mass 800 miles NEward of northern Leewards is at 20 %,Invest 92L is down to 30 &,and Invest 93L is at 30 %.

Image

invatl2011sat2.gif

TWO outlooks

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OFTHE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 15 MPH.THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND SATELLITEIMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY CURRENTLY BE ENCOUNTERING A DRIERAND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXTSEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THESOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESSAND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDTO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXTSEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTERORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SLOWDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THISDISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOWCHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

4. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROADLOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OFDAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THISSYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER BEVENNNNN

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Posted
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3

92L & 93L both at 40% now according to NOAA.

Personally I would be worried about 93L if I was in the Lesser Antilles

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

The area northeast of the Leeward Islands has become Invest 94L and the area north of Bermuda has become Invest 95L. 95L doesn't have long left before being absorbed by a frontal feature, but 94L could develop slowly given the environment is favourable. 92L shouldn't be underestimated, it's looking very impressive on satellite imagery with a decent amount of convection and spin. In fact, it's looking much better than 93L to it's east right now.

EDIT: 95L has been upped to code red, 60% risk of TC formation. This system may well become a tropical depression before merging with the frontal system.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

93L

having a hard time!

satrgb2011-08-13201593Llatlonanno.jpg

94L

TCFA issued

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

WTNT21 KNGU 132200

RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27.9N 61.6W TO 30.7N 65.5W

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.

2. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. A

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 27N60W AT 13/2100Z,

ABOU370NM SE OF BERMUDA MOVING WNW AT 11KT. SATELLITE LOOPS

INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE LOW

PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF LESSER WIND SHEAR AND

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 82F TO 84F, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 13/1745Z IS T1.5.

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE

TOMORROW AT 14/1800Z.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED

TO EXPIRE BY 142200Z./T

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Have to admit I've not mentioned anything about Franklin or TD 7 mainly because they are not very interesting IMO.

Invest 92L is starting to get it's act together now, as is ex 93L which isn't on any of the charts but it in excellent conditions for development and has in the last few hrs really kicked off.

92L and 93L are the two to watch atm IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

95L became TS Franklin.

94L has become TS Gert.

Invest 92L no longer looks likely to develop IMO. Latest satellite imagery indicates it is being absorbed by the larger TS Gert.

93L almost died a death but convection is beginning to increase again. Well worth watching when it gets to the Caribbean.

Invest 96L has formed north of Bermuda. Convection is beginning to increase near an increasingly well defined LLC. Will it become yet another short lived storm? What a bizarre season so far!

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

93L

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 410 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HISPANIOLA EASTWARD ACROSS

PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THERE

ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SLOW

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT

MOVES WESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20

PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

93L has little circulation, i would not expect it to develop.

There is a nice chain of potential systems along the ITCZ at the moment, so we should see another 3/4 invests this week.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

93L has little circulation, i would not expect it to develop.

There is a nice chain of potential systems along the ITCZ at the moment, so we should see another 3/4 invests this week.

I wouldn't right it off yet.

93L

179av.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Recon is on the way to 93L now.

Looks like TD8.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Recon is on the way to 93L now.

ir_enhanced_storm2_1.jpg

models_storm2.jpg

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post-6667-0-64604000-1313653913_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

NHC stating that surface pressure is falling in the region of 93L and has upped the chance of development to 70%.

Radar looks very good.

TD at the next advisory is pretty likely.

Shame about its track.

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