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2011 Atlantic Storm Predictions

Iceberg

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
    • Location: Dorset
    Posted

    We are nearly in April which is when most of the big predictors start to forecast the 2011 season.

    However a brief bit below, which is not a forecast just a comment on what is being shown.

    It's interesting looking at the latest long range model forecasts for the tropics and the possible effect on the Hurricane season.

    This (Euro/Met/French) output seems to be indicating higher SST's, lower pressures and more rainfall.

    All in All a more northerly ITCZ for the Jun/Jul/Aug period with considerable scope for storm development(shear allowing).

    We might be off to a boy racer start, particularly as the La Nina Enso state is fast approaching Neutral already (latest weekly figure is 0.8).

    post-6326-0-43860400-1300726308_thumb.gi

    post-6326-0-11501100-1300726322_thumb.gi

    post-6326-0-02219500-1300726338_thumb.gi

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    summer blizzard Maestro

    summer blizzard

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    Posted

    The perfect combination is a La Nina combined with an easterly QBO.

    At some point this season, we are likely to see the QBO become easterly. Currently, we have La Nina conditions which are weakening however no sign of a push toan El Nino.

    In summary, mid season will likely be very active in comparison to normal, but an average start is likely.

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