April CET

[Ben_Cambs]

I've decided to start up the April CET thread with less than a week to go to the start of April.

1961-1990 average: 8.0C

1971-2000 average: 8.1C

Warmest April mean: 11.2C - 2007

Coldest April mean: 4.7C - 1701 and 1837

I'm going to guess for 9.3C though I might change this in a few days time.

Edited March 26, 2011 by Ben_Cambs

[Weather-history]

As I have mentioned in the past, we are long overdue a notably cold April. The statistical elastic band on this is well stretched and it must be close to snapping. The last one was 1989 and which was also the last April that was at least 0.5C below the 30 year average.

As we have seen recently, we can still get such months, so there is no reason why April can't. I will be very surprised if it doesn't happen within the next 5 years.

[Scorcher]

I think it's going to be a very warm one this year. It's certainly looking like a very warm start- it's not 100% yet but the CET could be notably high after the first couple of days. My feeling is that the current pattern could last through at least the first half of the month, and if that happens it will become difficult to get the CET back to average with April being a warming month. Are there many examples of Aprils with a colder second half than first half? My estimate is 10.2C.

[Weather-history]

I think it's going to be a very warm one this year. It's certainly looking like a very warm start- it's not 100% yet but the CET could be notably high after the first couple of days. My feeling is that the current pattern could last through at least the first half of the month, and if that happens it will become difficult to get the CET back to average with April being a warming month. Are there many examples of Aprils with a colder second half than first half? My estimate is 10.2C.

1892 saw a crash, it was 10.1C up to the 11th and ended up as 7.3C

Even as recent 2008, the CET started off very high and fell away.

Depends if we get a big switcharound and assuming it is a very warm start.

[DeepSnow]

I will have an early guess at 7.8C

[Scorcher]

1892 saw a crash, it was 10.1C up to the 11th and ended up as 7.3C

Even as recent 2008, the CET started off very high and fell away.

Depends if we get a big switcharound and assuming it is a very warm start.

It sounds like it's more unusual to get a colder second half of April than other warming months. I can think of a fair few Mays in recent times that have had colder second halves-2008 and 2006 stand out but Aprils are harder to find. I suppose it's not surprising when you consider the fact that the sun is rapidly gaining strength through the month.

[BARRY]

Well april can be a fickle month so 7.3c

[Milhouse]

Theres a fair chance the first 7 days will come in above 10c and with no indication of any cold in the long term i'd say above average is odds on.

9.1c for me.

[AderynCoch]

April 1981

First half = 9.3C

Second half = 6.2C

I'll hold fire on April 2011 until the end of March.

[damianslaw]

I'm going to leave my guess until late - will be interesting to see whether come mid week the atlantic is looking like it will have a bit more oomph to it which could suppress the chances of heights from the south making as strong an influence as perhaps being suggested now.

Longer term signs of pattern change mid month courtesy of strat warming and weakening polar vortex which will aid height development to our north and north west -it could be a contrasting month with a mild fairly unsettled first half giving way to either a cool dry second half or even cold wet second half, with northerly and easterly airstreams from cold northern sources or cold cyclonic conditions with low pressure systems tracking on southerly paths bumping into cold air to the north.

[Polar Gael]

10.0C for me please.

[BornFromTheVoid]

An early guess of 8.9C please, just below the 10 year running average of 9.1.

[Optimus Prime]

It's likely to start mild and remain so for sometime. I'm going with 9.4c. Generally not far from normal given recent Aprils.

[summer blizzard]

What is the 1981-2010 average for April??

I will make a prediction once i have that figure although i suspect an above average outcome is assured. There is already good ensemble agreement on the 1st-9th being above average and even if the final warming occurs within the next few days, the lag will ensure that no cold pattern really sets in until after the 20th.

[The PIT]

Go for 8.6C

[Stormyking]

Im going to go for 8.7c, the first half of April I reckon is going to be warm and some very temperatures for beginning of April by what the charts have been saying. Threw second half I reckon it will become more unsettled with Atlantic Influenced weather and maybe a Northerly!

[stewfox]

9.7c for me

[SteveB]

I think I will go for 8.7c

[Methuselah]

9.3C please...

Edited March 29, 2011 by Pete Tattum
My previous guess is already looking unlikely!

[Thundery wintry showers]

10.2C for now please.

[sundog]

9.5c for me please

[reef]

Another very warm one.

9.8C

[Weather-history]

As I have mentioned in the past, we are long overdue a notably cold April. The statistical elastic band on this is well stretched and it must be close to snapping. The last one was 1989 and which was also the last April that was at least 0.5C below the 30 year average.

As we have seen recently, we can still get such months, so there is no reason why April can't. I will be very surprised if it doesn't happen within the next 5 years.

I'm going for 9.1C, no cold April this time but one must be around the corner in the near future.

[Mark Bayley]

9.8c please

[Lettucing Gutted]

12C