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April CET


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Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

I've decided to start up the April CET thread with less than a week to go to the start of April.

1961-1990 average: 8.0C

1971-2000 average: 8.1C

Warmest April mean: 11.2C - 2007

Coldest April mean: 4.7C - 1701 and 1837

I'm going to guess for 9.3C though I might change this in a few days time.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

As I have mentioned in the past, we are long overdue a notably cold April. The statistical elastic band on this is well stretched and it must be close to snapping. The last one was 1989 and which was also the last April that was at least 0.5C below the 30 year average.

As we have seen recently, we can still get such months, so there is no reason why April can't. I will be very surprised if it doesn't happen within the next 5 years.

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Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire

I think it's going to be a very warm one this year. It's certainly looking like a very warm start- it's not 100% yet but the CET could be notably high after the first couple of days. My feeling is that the current pattern could last through at least the first half of the month, and if that happens it will become difficult to get the CET back to average with April being a warming month. Are there many examples of Aprils with a colder second half than first half? My estimate is 10.2C.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

I think it's going to be a very warm one this year. It's certainly looking like a very warm start- it's not 100% yet but the CET could be notably high after the first couple of days. My feeling is that the current pattern could last through at least the first half of the month, and if that happens it will become difficult to get the CET back to average with April being a warming month. Are there many examples of Aprils with a colder second half than first half? My estimate is 10.2C.

1892 saw a crash, it was 10.1C up to the 11th and ended up as 7.3C

Even as recent 2008, the CET started off very high and fell away.

Depends if we get a big switcharound and assuming it is a very warm start.

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Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

I will have an early guess at 7.8C

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Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire

1892 saw a crash, it was 10.1C up to the 11th and ended up as 7.3C

Even as recent 2008, the CET started off very high and fell away.

Depends if we get a big switcharound and assuming it is a very warm start.

It sounds like it's more unusual to get a colder second half of April than other warming months. I can think of a fair few Mays in recent times that have had colder second halves-2008 and 2006 stand out but Aprils are harder to find. I suppose it's not surprising when you consider the fact that the sun is rapidly gaining strength through the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Theres a fair chance the first 7 days will come in above 10c and with no indication of any cold in the long term i'd say above average is odds on.

9.1c for me.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I'm going to leave my guess until late - will be interesting to see whether come mid week the atlantic is looking like it will have a bit more oomph to it which could suppress the chances of heights from the south making as strong an influence as perhaps being suggested now.

Longer term signs of pattern change mid month courtesy of strat warming and weakening polar vortex which will aid height development to our north and north west -it could be a contrasting month with a mild fairly unsettled first half giving way to either a cool dry second half or even cold wet second half, with northerly and easterly airstreams from cold northern sources or cold cyclonic conditions with low pressure systems tracking on southerly paths bumping into cold air to the north.

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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

10.0C for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

An early guess of 8.9C please, just below the 10 year running average of 9.1.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

What is the 1981-2010 average for April??

I will make a prediction once i have that figure although i suspect an above average outcome is assured. There is already good ensemble agreement on the 1st-9th being above average and even if the final warming occurs within the next few days, the lag will ensure that no cold pattern really sets in until after the 20th.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Go for 8.6C

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Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

Im going to go for 8.7c, the first half of April I reckon is going to be warm and some very temperatures for beginning of April by what the charts have been saying. Threw second half I reckon it will become more unsettled with Atlantic Influenced weather and maybe a Northerly!

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

9.7c for me

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

I think I will go for 8.7c

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

10.2C for now please.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

9.5c for me please

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

As I have mentioned in the past, we are long overdue a notably cold April. The statistical elastic band on this is well stretched and it must be close to snapping. The last one was 1989 and which was also the last April that was at least 0.5C below the 30 year average.

As we have seen recently, we can still get such months, so there is no reason why April can't. I will be very surprised if it doesn't happen within the next 5 years.

I'm going for 9.1C, no cold April this time but one must be around the corner in the near future.

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