Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[welshgritter]

Hows it looking all......when is the good old cold coming...??? Last Year I started gritting the last week of november. Come on the cold. ordered by winter gear.....happy days.

[andymusic]

Crumbs of cold comfort as the GFS pumps out a "colder" scenario in Fantasy Island territory for the beginning of December - let's see if it's a trend that can be built on or gets rubbished into the dirt!

[Cwmbran Eira]

Crumbs of cold comfort as the GFS pumps out a "colder" scenario in Fantasy Island territory for the beginning of December - let's see if it's a trend that can be built on or gets rubbished into the dirt!

Yes. just in time for the start of winter

Andy, what temperatures would this give us?

[TonyH]

Well its fairly cold this evening close a ground frost here, 4c.

Looks like a frost Tuesday night for much of Wales, and perhaps later in the week if the wind drops enough once the cold front passes through from the low crossing the north of Scotland.

[TonyH]

My take in the coming weeks weather comparing west Wales with the central MIdlands:

Guide to the week's weather for west Wales and the Midlands for Monday 21st to Sunday 27th November:

Headline: Mostly mild; some rain at times, but not so much for the Midlands again

In spite of some of the sensationalist 'forecasts' in the media this Autumn of impending snow and -20c temperatures, we have enjoyed one of the mildest most benign Autumn's on record (lesson: ignore the newspaper headlines!). The continued Euro blocking means that Warwickshire is still in with a chance for the driest year on record, provided only 2 inches more rain falls during the last 6 weeks of 2011.

Monday may be another foggy start in the Midlands, most of us then in for a cloudy mild day. It stays dry for the Midlands, while a little rain or drizzle breaks out over west Wales, especially later. This is brought by a slow moving trough which during Tuesday gradually edges east while weakening. Rain at times Monday night and early Tuesday for Wales, brightening in the afternoon, while for the Midlands Tuesday is a largely cloudy day with a little rain possible and mild again.

The trough clearance later Tuesday brings a chilly night with frost distinctly possible for many,and below zero for some of us.

A ridge of high pressure remains close to the south through Wednesday so a mostly dry day with the best of any sunshine for the Midlands, while west Wales could get a little drizzle by evening from the next Atlantic front. The influence of the high should keep the Midlands dry and bright again on Thursday, and a very mild day up to 14c here. For west Wales a largely cloud day, and with a vigorous Atlantic system edging into Ireland it looks like it will turn wet and windy during Thursday, although the worst perhaps holding off until evening.

This front gets a move on through all parts Friday, and as a result rainfall amounts may disappoint yet again in Warwickshire! Friday then a bright, breezy day with a few showers out west. A cooler day too, temperatures close to the late November average of 9 or 10c.

Next weekend sees the westerly flow continuing so unsettled and windy at times, with further spells of rain, with the heaviest for west Wales. Temperatures average to mild.

[andymusic]

Yes. just in time for the start of winter

Andy, what temperatures would this give us?

Not cold enough for general snow just yet me thinks - (tops of Snowdon may get a tad) - It'll just take the edge off the temps and make it feel more seasonal - but it's a toppler, so won't really hang around for too long

[Jackfrost]

Ahh, Andy. Something must be in the air if you're around again.

We're no more than 4 miles from each other so we'll have to have an alert system to let each other know if a flake falls so we can get on snowwatch.

The Valleys are at their best in the snow.

[J10]

To be fair Tony's assessment agrees with my Synoptic pattern analysis issued on Friday above.

No real cold this week, and very much on the mild side continuing this Autumn's pattern.

[welshgritter]

gutted......... earlier forecasts were indicating a start of the cold weather to be as late as mid December this year with February benchmarked to be the worst - so a long way to go yet....!

[A Winter's Tale]

I've started a thread that looks at the most productive snowfalls for you and the regions of Wales and the UK. You should mention the type of snowfall, the area of Wales and Geographical Landmarks and features that might affect it.

Thanks.

[welshgritter]

Cold Cold - where art thou Cold..................

[mikeocarroll]

Cold Cold - where art thou Cold..................

Well it's just 2.0c here at the moment so fairly cold, but in terms of proper, potentially snowy cold, it's lost somewhere over greenland and the models don't want to send it down in this direction. Anyone want to head up there with a map and show it the way to here?

[keithlucky]

Yes temps dropping like a stone now 3c and falling, car frosted up wont surprise me to see the gritters out for the first time this season.

[TonyH]

Cold here frost as expected, the only one of this week. -0.3c mind we had -5c two weeks ago.

[lindy2017]

Ahh, Andy. Something must be in the air if you're around again.

We're no more than 4 miles from each other so we'll have to have an alert system to let each other know if a flake falls so we can get on snowwatch.

The Valleys are at their best in the snow.

I live in brynmawr so when we get the snow it lasts for at least 4 weeks last year and the one before

[A Winter's Tale]

How are the Welsh feeling about this winter! Other than complaints from the English, what was last winter like after the New Year is this part.

[CRACKPOT]

How are the Welsh feeling about this winter! Other than complaints from the English, what was last winter like after the New Year is this part.

Hi Winters Tale,

Last Winter, in the New Year and onwards was not very good, snow wise - but what we had in December was memorable in the extreme - so we put up with that - it was just more disappointing because we were greedy, like everyone else, and wanted more!

This winter is on a slow burn but I think Wales will have another cold winter but not until January and February. Everything is pointing towards a later start - might be a very good January and February - traditionally the coldest winter months in general.

JK

[welshwizard]

lot colder this morn guys, i wonder if this is the start ov winter? only 1 more week left in nov and then we should be into 12 weeks ov colder weather. seems strange after last years cold that i am even writting about this slight drop in temp ha ha. noticed yest that either itv or bbc said going to get colder,didnt say how cold but colder. i want nice fresh frosty morns for a week or so just to make it feel like winter is on its way. come on frosty lets be aving u ha ha.

[Cwmbran Eira]

How are the Welsh feeling about this winter! Other than complaints from the English, what was last winter like after the New Year is this part.

Certainly a slow start by the looks of it. I do prefer the cold late December into January. We tend to rely on battle ground events for big dumps of snow so I'm not too bothered about record breaking temperatures.

2010/2011 in my exact location in east wales was a little disapointing. Small falls of snow and very cold before Christmas. Nothing after. But 5-10 miles west towards Cardiff and North into the Valleys had an extreme event caused by streamers off the Bristol Channel. I remember watching it on the radars. It just refused to go away or move east which was disapointing for me but good news for the guys who received well over a foot in places.

2009/2010 proved much better for my location. 3 seperate falls of snow over 30cm late December/early January. One closer to 40cm. We've had a few deeper falls of snow but never as many in one winter. In my 33 years any way.

What bout the thoughts North of the border?

[Jackfrost]

I'm surprised you missed out on the 17th December event, Cwmbran Eria. You're no more than 20 miles east of me, yet there was 38cm of lying snow over here. By the way, it was a streamer from the Irish Sea to the North which stretched right through Wales, not the Bristol Channel And the enormous 2ft icicles that followed over Christmas were fun to see.

There was another fall of 10cm or so on December 3rd, but nothing spectacular. Like everywhere else, it was the cold that was more notable.

[Cwmbran Eira]

I'm surprised you missed out on the 17th December event, Cwmbran Eria. You're no more than 20 miles east of me, yet there was 38cm of lying snow over here. By the way, it was a streamer from the Irish Sea to the North which stretched right through Wales, not the Bristol Channel And the enormous 2ft icicles that followed over Christmas were fun to see.

There was another fall of 10cm or so on December 3rd, but nothing spectacular. Like everywhere else, it was the cold that was more notable.

Oh right. Irish sea was it. My memory is terrible. I just remember seeing this thing on the radar fizzling out just as it was reaching us here. Very frustrating!!

We did have perhaps 20cm (maybe a bit more) early December then a few cm's later on which was probably on the 17th. Lets hope we both share in the fun this year

[Scarlet_Snow]

Ahh haven't been on here for a while! Last winter was a massive disappointment for snow in this area as crazy as that sounds, while areas 10-20 miles away got hammered with snow the coastal area around Llanelli missed the brunt of everything, 2 inches I think we had at most! There was just no intensity to it whatsoever, mostly really small flakes. The best snowfalls I've seen usually come out of the blue, so hopefully this year will bring something better!

[Cwmbran Eira]

Country 'ready for bitter winter'

Damn it! That's put the kibosh on a severe winter then

[thetipster]

found some photos from last winter at pontypridd looks so good

[thetipster]

very poor acc after 5 days