Tropical Cyclone 20S

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 91S has become a tropical cyclone west of Darwin, Australia. As the LLC moved over water yesterday, convection increased quite dramatically and has since remained persistant over the LLC. Intensity is 35kts. Land interaction is currently hindering development on the westward track along the northern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge over mainland Australia. 20S should clear land eventually, and with low shear, very warm sea temps and good outflow, the cyclone could rapidly intensify. A trough should eventually break down the ridge and a strengthening 20S should turn southwards in response and make landfall on the Pilbara Coast. Exact landfall location is uncertain and depends on the timing of the turn. One to watch.

[Rob]

Definately one to watch!

[onlyME]

Dissipating,20 mph winds.Me thinks the gang from JTWC didn't locate the center well.

I located the center with purple color.

[Somerset Squall]

Spent too much time over land near Kulumburu this one. Now the weak LLC has finally emerged over water, the upper level environment has deteriorated and the air is dry. Goodbye 20S, it was a good thing you didn't do as forecast.