Checking Any Forecast For Accuracy

[johnholmes]

I now very rarely post in the model thread but IF this takes off I am happy to update this thread as necessary; see below

Forecast accuracy?

This is always a fairly emotive subject and the link below does show that we may, at last, have some reasonably accurate checks over the coming months.

The blog is that of Paul Hudson, Met trained local Yorkshire forecaster.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2011/03/long-range-forecasts-the-day-o.shtml

and gives a link into this site

http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_9435000/9435955.stm

which is co-ordinating attempts to run an independent check on forecasts. Currently it appears that both Met and Piers Corvyn have provisionally agreed to take part.

The Weather Test, backed by the Today programme, is a unique and ambitious collaboration between BBC News, the Royal Meteorological Society , the Royal Statistical Society , the Royal Astronomical Society and independent academics and weather forecasters.

The aim is to show the public how far they can rely on the accuracy of different weather forecasters over periods from a day to a season.

Hopefully this should give us all a fair view of each forecast and its accuracy whatever time period it covers.

Edited April 5, 2011 by johnholmes

[MurcieBoy]

Really hope this takes off; well done to those who make it happen!

[Roger J Smith]

Two questions here:

Will Net-weather submit a seasonal forecast to be evaluated in comparison with these others?

How could I provide a separate entry for evaluation? Is there a deadline for a summer forecast to be submitted? I am working on one now and expect to have it finished later this week or over the weekend.