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Tropical Depression 02W(Amang)


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Posted
  • Location: in Croatia
  • Location: in Croatia

Another TD in April.

Forecast

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Satellite image

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Public Advisory

remarks:050900z position near 16.5n 142.0e.Tropical depression (td) 02w (two), located approximately 270 nmnorthwest of Anderson AFB, Guam, has tracked east-northeastward at19 knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satelliteimagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center withweakening deep convection sheared to the northeast. A 050353z amsremicrowave image reveals tightly curved low level convective banding,from which the initial position is based with good confidence. Theinitial intensity is based on pgtw and knes Dvorak estimates of 25to 35 knots. Upper level analysis indicates TD 02w is located justpoleward of the subtropical ridge axis in an area of moderate tohigh vertical wind shear (approximately 25 to 30 knots) and polewardoutflow is extremely favorable into the midlatitude flow. Seasurface temperatures remain favorable. TD 02w is quickly trackingalong the edge of the baroclinic zone and along the northwesternperiphery of a subtropical steering ridge. Within the next 12 hours,TD 02w should begin to interact with the baroclinic zone as amidlatitude trough located to the north digs southward. By tau 24,TD 02w is forecast to transition into a gale-force extratropicallow. However, an alternate scenario is possible where the systembecomes sheared and dissipates before completing ett. Numericalmodel guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, except forGFDN, which tracks TD 02w eastward and slower than the other models.This is unlikely as the system completes ett and this forecast is ingood agreement with NOGAPS,GFS, ukmo, and ECMWF. Maximum significantwave height at 050600z is 10 feet. Next warnings at 051500z, 052100zand 060300z.//

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Yup, the West Pacific's second tropical depression follows hot on the heels of the first. 02W is looking fairly well organised at present, with some deep convection persisting over the LLC. However, the depression is moving east-northeastwards towards cooler waters and high shear, which will either force 02W to become extratropical or dissipate in a day or so.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

The shear has destroyed 02W already. The LLC became completely exposed in the early hours, and now the centre is hard to identify. Regeneration is not expected.

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